Continuing to Rise! How Long Will International Oil Prices Soar?
Following the announcement by major oil-producing countries to extend voluntary production cuts until the end of the month, international oil prices surged over % on the day.
In the crude oil futures market, last weekend, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement saying that OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to extend the voluntary production cuts, originally set to expire at the end of the month, until the end of the month. As a result of the production cut news, international oil prices rose on Monday. The light crude oil futures price for delivery in December on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $ per barrel, up .%. The January 2024 delivery Brent crude oil futures price on the London Intercontinental Exchange closed at $ per barrel, up .%.
Zhu Guangming, an oil analyst at SCI99, told International Business Daily that recently, crude oil prices have been rising continuously, showing a strong performance, mainly due to two major benefits: one is that Saudi Arabia has once again extended the production cut by one month, and other countries have also announced that they will strictly enforce the production cuts; the other is that the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with geopolitical premiums present.
On a certain date, the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry emphasized that Iran will utilize all possible facilities and forces to respond to the previous attacks by Israel on Iranian territory. The uncertainty in geopolitical situations, combined with the recent announcement to postpone the originally scheduled production increase in a certain month, has significantly boosted oil prices. Among them, the main crude oil futures for a certain month closed up by 1.5%, and Brent crude oil futures closed up by 1.8%.
However, judging from the market performance, oil prices have approached the previous high technical resistance level, and traders should be cautious of the risk of chasing long positions in the short term. Additionally, there are numerous macro events this week, with the market focusing on the U.S. election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the week. Traders should strictly control risks.
Zhuochuang Information believes that in the short term, the market is adopting a wait-and-see stance, and oil prices are remaining volatile. However, after the election results become clear, if the Democratic Party wins, the impact on oil prices will be neutral, and the volatility in oil prices will decrease. If the Republican Party wins, the impact on oil prices will be negative, and the volatility in oil prices will increase.