"You can now bet on the U.S. presidential election."
Yes, you can now bet on the US election.
The U.S. presidential election each year is inevitably marked by the "famous scenes" of mutual attacks between Democratic and Republican candidates, and the first legalization of betting on the election results has also attracted significant public attention. The election has turned into a "casino," elevating "American democracy" to a new level.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled on a certain date that the online gambling platform Carousel can continue to offer betting contracts related to the U.S. presidential election, while dismissing the request from the federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to ban such activities. Carousel promptly launched trading products related to the results of this year's U.S. election and issued a statement saying that for the first time in a century, U.S. residents can legally predict the outcome of the election through trading.
Based on the market conditions on the specified date, Americans have the option to purchase contracts predicting the victory of former US President Trump in the election for a price of 50 cents. If Trump ultimately wins, the buyer will receive $1; otherwise, they will lose the 50 cents. Investors can also bet on Trump's defeat with a 50-cent wager.
On [Date], in Milwaukee, USA, Trump (front left) and Vance attended the Republican National Convention. Trump received enough votes from party delegates at the Republican National Convention that day to be officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate for the 2024 US presidential election.
Karlsh has launched dozens of contracts related to this year's U.S. presidential election. Jack Sache, Head of Market Research at Karlsh, said on the 10th: "As of now, investors hold $10 million in open contracts for election predictions, with a total trading volume exceeding $1.2 billion. The trading volume of all election-related products at Karlsh has surpassed $1.3 billion."
After officially entering the prediction market for this year's election, Karshi's odds on the two presidential candidates have become a window for some investors to observe the election situation. Trump himself and his supporters have repeatedly cited betting market data that favors Trump's campaign.
Over the past few days, the odds of Trump and Democratic candidate Harris winning have narrowed rapidly in the betting markets. On the day of the month, the platform's data showed that Trump's winning rate was %, while Harris's winning rate was %. American public opinion predicts that if Trump loses the presidential election, his supporters may cite these data to "substantiate" election fraud.
Many people question whether betting platforms themselves will become one of the tools manipulated by the election. The Wall Street Journal reported on a certain date that on the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket, large trades were placed betting on Trump's victory, pushing his win rate to 70%, while Harris's win rate was only 5%. At the beginning of the month, the two candidates' win rates were still neck and neck on the platform. There were also reports that the trading volume of U.S. election contracts on Polymarket was approximately $100 million, with about one-third of it being fake transactions.
Money flooding "American democracy" is no secret, and allowing bets on the results of the U.S. presidential election is another footnote to the prevalence of money politics in America, indicating that "American democracy" is reaching new heights in its monetization.