2024.11.10

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introduction：财政政策力度，不仅要看12万亿化债新政，也要看即将出台支持房地产等财政增量政策，更要看明年更有力度的财政政策。

Author: First Finance Chen Yikan

市场期待的一揽子财政增量政策开始兑现，第一项化解地方政府隐性债务风险（下称化债）力度超出市场预期。近日，财政部部长蓝佛安在全国人大常委会发布会上，**公开了12万亿元的化债组合拳，此举直接让地方在2028年底之前偿还隐性债务规模减少12万亿元，缓释地方当期化债压力，5年节约利息约6000亿元，Allow local governments to free up substantial funds and resources to support investment and consumption, improve people's livelihoods, and promote economic growth. This is just the beginning of fiscal efforts. The Ministry of Finance is supporting robust fiscal expenditures through measures such as arranging for certain central units to contribute a portion of their special earnings to supplement central government revenue, issuing billions of yuan in local government bonds to bolster local fiscal strength, and other initiatives. Moreover, new policies supporting real estate tax and fees are about to be introduced as part of the fiscal incremental policies, with special bonds expediting the acquisition of land and existing commercial properties, and the issuance of special government bonds to supplement the core tier-1 capital of large state-owned commercial banks is being accelerated. More crucially, after Blue Fuan reiterated that the Chinese government still has significant borrowing capacity, he stated...2025年将实施更加给力的财政政策，这包括积极利用可提升的赤字空间，扩大专项债券发行规模等，这为明年财政发力打开了想象空间。**多位财税专家告诉第一财经，12万亿元化债新政力度超预期，意义重大，不仅大幅减轻当前地方化债压力，更激发地方发展经济活力和改善民生能力，叠加即将出台的支持房地产财政增量等举措，将更大地发挥财政政策稳经济效应，助推今年经济增长实现5%左右的预期目标。更关键的是，明年财政政策力度大概率强于今年，赤字率（财政赤字占GDP比重）有望突破3%，财政支出规模更大。 The effect of trillion-dollar debt should not be underestimated为了防范地方政府隐性债务风险，早在2018年，中央要求各地在坚决遏制隐性债务增量的基础上，用十年时间即在2028年底前将存量隐性债务全部化解完毕。按照这一要求，2018年开始各地积极化债。财政部数据显示，截至2023年底，全国隐性债务余额降至14.3万亿元，比2018年摸底数减少50%，隐性债务风险整体缓解。不过，要完成上述2028年底前隐性债务“清零”目标，意味着地方政府需要在2024年至2028年五年内拿出资金、资源，偿还14.3万亿元隐性债务，这对部分地方政府来说压力很大。今年以来，受外部环境变化和内需不足等因素影响，财政收支矛盾突出，税收增长不及预期，土地出让收入大幅下降，与各地此前对化债资源的预期有一定差距，化解存量隐性债务难度增大。一些地方隐性债务规模大、利息负担重，不仅存在“爆雷”风险，也消耗了地方可用财力。在这一背景下，财政部拿出一套化债组合拳，**即2024年至2028年五年内允许发行总计10万亿元地方政府债券，来置换10万亿元隐性债务；**与此同时，**对于2万亿元棚户区改造隐性债务，不再要求在2028年底前全部偿还，而是按照原先合同在2029年及之后偿还。**如此，地方原本要在2028年之前偿还14.3万亿元隐性债务，在上述12万亿元化债政策支持下，**变为只需偿还2.3万亿元，2028年之前的化债压力大幅减轻。**中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇告诉第一财经，此前地方忙于偿还隐性债务本金利息，资金压力大。这次12万亿元化债政策直接解决地方燃眉之急，将地方从化债压力中解救出来，从而规范地方政府行为，腾出更多的资金和精力，聚焦发展经济、保障民生。“用10万亿元地方政府债券置换隐性债务，使得期限结构更长更合理，地方政府债券利率也明显低于此前隐性债务贷款利率，按财政部测算5年节约6000亿元。”杨志勇说。粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒长期关注地方债，当他看到此次12万亿元化债新政，感觉超出自己预期，也超出很多市场机构预测。此前专家和机构预计化债规模基本在2万亿元至10万亿元之间。罗志恒告诉第一财经，这次隐性债务置换，基本上实现了隐性债务显性化，债务更加公开透明规范，地方债务的存在形态从显性和隐性并存的“双轨”管理全部转向以显性债务为主，这本身就是一个降低风险的过程，便于监管。他表示，这次近年力度最大的化债政策，抓住了当前主要矛盾，即极大地激发了地方政府发展经济、改善民生的能力和积极性，这是中国经济增长的重要秘诀。化债举措快速落地，配合其他财政增量举措，积极财政政策效应更大，将有着事半功倍的效果，推动经济回升向好。

The image above is sourced from Huachuang Securities' research report (same below).

Support for the real estate market and measures to increase income are accelerating their implementation. Among the four major fiscal incremental policies, the trillion-yuan debt reduction policy is already clear, which is at least in line with market expectations, if not exceeding them. Although the other three fiscal incremental policies have not yet been announced, they are "on the verge of being released" and are highly anticipated, with the most anticipated being the fiscal incremental policies to support the stability of the real estate market. In the package of policies aimed at stopping and reversing the decline in the real estate market, fiscal policies are indispensable. In mid-month, the Ministry of Finance stated that it is working to clarify and cancel the value-added tax and land value-added tax policies related to ordinary and non-ordinary residential standards, and will further study and increase support, adjust and optimize relevant tax policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Lan Fu'an, during the aforementioned press conference, said that the relevant tax policies supporting the healthy development of the real estate market have already been submitted for approval and will be introduced soon. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance previously stated that considering the relatively large number of unsold housing, it supports local governments in using special bonds to purchase existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing in various regions. Considering the relatively large number of idle undeveloped land across the country, it supports local governments in using special bonds to recover qualified idle land, and in regions with actual needs, it can also be used for new land reserve projects. This is a key measure for fiscal stability in the real estate market. Lan Fu'an said that the Ministry of Finance is working with relevant departments to formulate policy details to accelerate the implementation of special bonds supporting the recovery of idle land, new land reserves, and the purchase of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. "Supporting the stability of the real estate market requires a coordinated effort of various policies. From a fiscal policy perspective, I understand that all possible measures should be taken and emphasized to be introduced quickly, with the aim of working together with other stabilizing real estate market policies to achieve a combined effect as soon as possible," said Yang Zhiyong. In addition, Lan Fu'an said that the issuance of special treasury bonds to replenish the core tier-1 capital of large state-owned commercial banks is also being expedited. Luo Zhiheng said that, based on the above statements, it is not difficult to see that fiscal incremental policies are being introduced and implemented intensively, so the fiscal policy intensity is not below market expectations. Previously, there were expectations for additional issuance of treasury bonds or special treasury bonds to supplement fiscal revenue and support fiscal expenditures. This expectation was not met at the recent National People's Congress meeting. However, this does not mean that there are no incremental measures to supplement fiscal revenue. In response to the fact that fiscal revenue growth this year has been below expectations, Lan Fu'an introduced incremental measures, including arranging for certain central units to contribute a portion of special revenue to supplement central fiscal revenue; using 100 billion yuan of local government debt carryover limits to supplement local government comprehensive financial resources; encouraging regions with conditions to revitalize government-owned resources and assets, and if necessary, using the budget stabilization adjustment fund. Luo Zhiheng said that in addition to the additional issuance of 100 billion yuan of local government bonds, the measures to supplement financial resources also include the revitalization of assets and the increase of revenue contributions from relevant units, which have the same effect as issuing treasury bonds and local government bonds to increase government fiscal revenue and thus ensure key expenditures. Lan Fu'an said that we have ample policy tools and resources to ensure that the national fiscal revenue and expenditure balance this year, with key expenditures not decreasing.

**明年财政政策力度大，赤字率破3%**由于今年仅剩不到两个月，市场对财政政策力度不应只着眼于当前，更要放眼明年，甚至未来更长时间。而明年财政政策力度将强于今年，更有力度，以推动经济稳定增长。蓝佛安在上述会上表示，结合明年经济社会发展目标，实施更加给力的财政政策。一是积极利用可提升的赤字空间。二是扩大专项债券发行规模，拓宽投向领域，提高用作资本金的比例。三是继续发行超长期特别国债，支持国家重大战略和重点领域安全能力建设。四是加大力度支持大规模设备更新，扩大消费品以旧换新的品种和规模。五是加大中央对地方转移支付规模，加强对科技创新、民生等重点领域投入保障力度。罗志恒表示，这一表态体现了积极财政政策的稳定性和连续性，而且体现明年财政政策力度大概率比较大，财政赤字率突破3%非常有必要，而且也有较大可能性，财政支出强度比今年更大。他进一步解释，之所以明年财政支出强度更大，一方面是因为化债新政，可以让地方政府腾出更多财政资金用于促进经济发展。而稳定资本市场、稳定楼市一系列政策落地，推动房地产市场等止跌回稳，也有助于带来房地产税收、土地出让收入止跌回稳。另一方面，财政赤字规模可能进一步扩大，地方政府专项债券规模扩大，也将增加财政收入，以保障更有力度的支出。杨志勇表示，财政政策的力度应因时因势而变，如果社会有需要，就相应加大力度。一方面，从我国赤字率来看，还有很大提升空间。另一方面，从政府的债务水平来看，我国与全球横向对比，水平仍然偏低。这意味着未来财政政策有较大加力空间，只要有需要，财政政策力度就可以进一步加大。蓝佛安表示，我国政府负债率（67.5%）显著低于主要经济体和新兴市场国家（G20平均负债率约118.2%），且我国地方政府债务形成了大量有效资产，很多资产正在产生持续性收益，既为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑，也是偿债资金的重要来源。总的看，我国政府还有较大举债空间。WeChat editor | 生产队的驴（周末不打烊）
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