For months, Ukraine and its NATO allies have been contemplating the possibility of a Trump victory, wandering through various fantasies: a strongman president in the United States might be a tougher ally, a dealmaker who could bring about a favorable peace, or someone who could bring a fresh perspective to a war that has grown wearying.

This is nothing more than a comforting fiction: the path ahead for Kyiv is extremely grim. What a Trump presidency would mean for Ukraine is no longer an eternal mystery. Trump once said he would "end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within hours," without specifying how. He also said, "Zelenskyy shouldn't have let the war happen," and called him "one of the greatest salesmen I've ever seen," able to secure billions of dollars each time he visits the U.S. Congress.

10月30日，乌军在顿涅茨克地区前线设置障碍物和反坦克地雷。（美联社）

The fact that these statements are exaggerated is no longer important. They have become a distorted perspective through which the U.S. President-elect views the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump may appoint a cabinet to slightly adjust the pace or tone he has determined intuitively, but ultimately, he wants to withdraw. Strategically, so far, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has provided the Pentagon with a relatively inexpensive means to weaken America's second-largest adversary without sacrificing American lives, but this is not important. These are also the two points that Trump disliked the most during his first term: the high-cost military involvement of the United States overseas and the annoyance it caused to Russian President Putin.

The Kremlin's initial response was that U.S.-Russia relations would not get worse than they are now under President Biden, which undoubtedly masked a sense of joy. Most analyses believe that for Russia, the coming year will be a cautious gamble. Moscow has been deploying troops around the Donbas military hub on mountaintops to push Ukrainian forces out of the Donetsk region this winter.

Success in Donetsk could open the way to major cities like Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, making Ukraine's capital suddenly very vulnerable and likely tilting the balance of the conflict. However, time is running out for Russia.

Putin has recently played these cards, hoping that Trump will win, because the latter will undoubtedly continue to act on instinct—pursuing isolationism and distrusting America's long-term allies.

Trump is mercurial and unpredictable, especially when dealing with complex and time-consuming matters, such as foreign conflicts. He prefers quick resolutions. We may never know if he truly studied the direction imposed on Ukraine, or if he simply no longer wanted to discuss the conflict or spend money on it.

Regardless of the speed or specifics of Trump's actions, the damage caused in the coming weeks will be evident. Now, Ukrainians must deal with the reversal of circumstances: while the Pentagon and NATO allies in Europe may still offer some assistance, the Trump administration is likely to adopt a hostile stance towards Kyiv's core forces.

This article was published on the website of CNN on the date, originally titled "Ukraine is forced to confront the harsh reality after Trump's election, a scenario it had hoped would never occur," written by Nick Paton Walsh.

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Source: Reference News

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