The IEA believes that in the short to medium term, biofuels are the most practical option for decarbonizing transportation.

The post-epidemic era has ushered in a new wave of peak demand for transportation fuel. Globally, biofuels are regarded as one of the key decarbonization fuels in the transportation industry in heavy-emission fields such as aviation and shipping. What is the current situation of biofuel technology innovation? What is the application potential in areas that are difficult to decarbonize? What is the policy orientation of developed countries?

Annual growth in output needs to accelerate

As of now, bioethanol and biodiesel are still the most widely used biofuels, of which bioethanol still occupies the dominant position in global biofuels. It can not only be used as a renewable and sustainable liquid fuel to reduce oil consumption, but can also be used as Various raw materials and solvents in the chemical industry.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out in its "Renewable Energy 2023" report that if the net-zero emission target is to be achieved by 2050, global biofuel production needs to grow at an average annual rate of 11% between now and 2030. It is estimated that by the end of 2030, kitchen waste, food waste and crop straw will account for the highest proportion of biofuel raw materials, reaching 40%.

The IEA said that the current growth rate of biofuel production cannot help achieve the 2050 net-zero target. 2018-2022 In 2050, global biofuel production grew at an annual rate of only 4%. By 2050, biofuel consumption in aviation, shipping and highways needs to reach 33%, 19% and 3%.

The IEA predicts that global biofuel demand will increase by 35 billion liters per year between 2022 and 2027. Among them, almost all of the growth in consumption of renewable diesel and bioaviation fuels comes from developed economies; almost all of the increase in bioethanol and biodiesel consumption comes from emerging economies.

Between 2022 and 2027, the share of biofuels in the global transportation fuel sector will increase from 4.3% to 5.4%. By 2027, global bioaviation fuel demand is expected to expand to 3.9 billion liters/year, 37 times that of 2021, accounting for nearly 1% of total aviation fuel consumption.

The most practical transportation decarbonization fuel

交通运输行业脱碳的难度很大，The IEA believes that in the short to medium term, biofuels are the most practical option for decarbonizing transportation. 从现在到2030年，全球可持续生物燃料产量需要增加两倍，才可能实现到2050年交通领域净零排放的目标。

It is widely believed in the industry that biofuels provide a cost-competitive option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector in the coming decades. In fact, compatibility with existing fossil fuel infrastructure makes biofuels a practical alternative to fossil fuels in existing fleets.

Although electric vehicles are developing rapidly, the material gap required for large-scale battery manufacturing and the difficulty in layout of charging facilities in underdeveloped areas still pose challenges to their widespread adoption. In the medium and long term, as the electrification of the transportation sector increases, the use of biofuels will shift to sectors such as aviation and shipping that are difficult to electrify.

Heitor Cantarella, an expert at the Agricultural Research Institute in Campinas, Brazil, said:"Liquid biofuels such as bioethanol and biodiesel can directly replace gasoline and diesel, providing mature and scalable alternatives to the market dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles."

China is also accelerating the deployment of biofuels in the transportation sector. In 2023, China's aviation kerosene consumption will be approximately 38.83 million tons, and direct carbon emissions will exceed 123 million tons, accounting for approximately 1% of the country's total carbon emissions. In the context of "double carbon", sustainable aviation fuels are currently the most feasible path to reduce carbon emissions in the aviation industry.

Mo Dingge, Chairman and Secretary of the Party Committee of Sinopec Ningbo Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., recently put forward suggestions on building a sustainable aviation fuel industry system that suits China's reality:Accelerate the establishment of a large-scale and efficient supply system for bio-based raw materials such as waste oils, accelerate the establishment of China's independently controllable sustainable certification system, improve the industrial policy support system, and promote the healthy development of the sustainable aviation fuel industry.

The United States and Europe give policy preference

Among developed economies, the United States is relatively active in promoting the development of biofuels. It is reported that the United States allocated $9.7 billion to the biofuel industry through the Inflation Reduction Act.

In February, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy jointly issued an announcement stating that funds granted under the Inflation Reduction Act will be given priority to companies with high-impact biofuel technology projects to improve the performance of biofuel production technology and reduce costs.

Joseph Goffman, an official in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Air and Radiation, said:"The move aims to stimulate innovation in advanced biofuel production." "Investment in biofuel technology is to meet the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuels and other low-carbon biofuels," said Jeff Marootian, chief deputy assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy at the U.S. Department of Energy.

Some EU member states believe that biofuels should be included in the EU carbon-neutral fuels framework to ensure the industry's ability to attract investment.

The European Court of Auditors said the EU's lack of a long-term biofuels strategy could undermine Europe's regional transportation decarbonization goals. In fact, the EU's position on biofuels has been wavering. The previous goal was to increase biofuels 'share of road transportation energy use to 10% by 2020, but later abandoned this goal. At present, the EU realizes that biofuels have great potential in aviation, shipping and other fields, and is regaining confidence in development.

Nikolaos Milionis, an official at the European Court of Auditors, admitted that the EU's biofuels policy framework is complex and has changed frequently in the past 20 years. "Biofuels can contribute to the EU's carbon neutrality goals and enhance its own energy security. However, there is still a lack of clear and clear development plans. The lack of policy guidance will undoubtedly increase investment risks and reduce the attractiveness of the European biofuel industry."