On April 12, a joint press conference on the "Blue Book for the Development of China's Petroleum Circulation Industry (2023-2024)" was held in Beijing.

On April 12, the China Petroleum Circulation Association and Jinlianchuang Network Technology Co., Ltd. jointly released the "Blue Book for the Development of China's Petroleum Circulation Industry (2023-2024)"(hereinafter referred to as the "Blue Book").

According to the "Blue Book", in 2023, the domestic oil circulation industry will continue to increase refining capacity, and China's refining capacity will hit a new high.

In 2023, the average operating rate of refineries nationwide will be 72.4%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points from 2022 and 16.5 percentage points lower than the global average. The operating rate of the main refinery is 77.9%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points compared with 2022; the operating rate of independent refineries is 64.0%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points compared with 2022; the average refining scale of domestic primary units reaches 6.41 million tons per year, and the annual refining capacity reaches 950 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and the growth rate slows down by 1.9 percentage points.

In addition, crude oil output has steadily increased, and its dependence on foreign countries has increased slightly. In 2023, oil and gas exploration and development efforts have continued to increase, with crude oil output reaching 210 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; crude oil dependence on foreign countries has increased to 72.9%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared with 2022. China's domestic crude oil output has steadily increased, resulting in an increase in foreign dependence on crude oil, but the overall fluctuation range is small.

However, it is worth noting that the current refining expansion is slowing down, refined oil production has achieved rapid growth, and supervision of the refining and chemical industry has been strengthened. In 2023, China's refined oil output will be 428.358 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. Among them, gasoline output was 161.384 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%; diesel output was 217.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%; kerosene output was 49.684 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 68.3%. The main refinery's refined oil output was 301.098 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; the independent refinery's refined oil output was 114.99 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The annual petroleum coke output was 31.396 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%; fuel oil output was 53.647 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.

Sun Renjin, secretary-general of the Expert Committee of the China Petroleum Circulation Association and professor of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), pointed out in interpreting the "Blue Book" that in 2023, refined oil consumption will basically return to 2019 levels, and the transportation, warehousing and postal industry will be the main force in refined oil consumption.

Among them, gasoline demand recovered strongly, showing a steady upward trend. Due to the continued expansion of the fundamentals of gasoline oil, the number of gasoline vehicles nationwide has increased to 340 million. With the release of residents 'enthusiasm for consumption, demand for road travel has grown, which has jointly driven a rebound in gasoline consumption. Apparent gasoline consumption in 2023 will be 149.102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%.

Diesel demand continued to grow, and the overall trend throughout the year showed a slight increase and then a decline. In a market environment where the economy has improved significantly and demand has gradually recovered, diesel has achieved a certain degree of growth. The apparent consumption of diesel in 2023 will be 203.652 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%.

The aviation industry is recovering rapidly, and aviation kerosene consumption has recovered significantly. The growth of total civil aviation transportation turnover, passenger transportation, and cargo and mail transportation has injected impetus into the recovery of aviation kerosene consumption. In 2023, the apparent consumption of aviation kerosene will be 34.234 million tons, a significant increase of 73.6% year-on-year.

The transportation, warehousing and postal industry is the main force in refined oil consumption, accounting for the largest proportion. In 2023, the transportation, warehousing and postal industry's refined oil consumption will be 241.745 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, accounting for 62.5% of the total refined oil consumption.

Sun Renjin said that in 2023, China will have excess refining capacity and the downstream demand market will expand. However, the growth rate of demand will not be as fast as the growth rate of output, resulting in an expansion of the gap between supply and demand of refined oil products, breaking the trend of improvement in previous years. The annual supply and demand gap will be 41.37 million tons., a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. The supply and demand of gasoline eased, and the gap between supply and demand narrowed to 12.282 million tons; the contradiction between supply and demand of diesel and kerosene intensified, and the gap between supply and demand widened to 13.638 million tons and 15.451 million tons respectively.

There is another set of data worthy of attention in this year's Blue Book. In 2022, the number of domestic gas stations will decline for the first time. In 2023, the slowdown of gas stations will accelerate and retail efficiency will rebound.

According to the "Blue Book", in 2023, the total number of gas stations nationwide will be approximately 105,800, a year-on-year decrease of more than 1800, a decrease of approximately 1.7%. Retail efficiency at gas stations rebounded, and daily sales at single stations increased. Sinopec's average daily sales volume at a single station was 10.63 tons/day, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; PetroChina's daily sales volume at a single station was 9.57 tons/day, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%.

Experts attending the meeting said that new energy vehicles have an increasing impact on traditional gas stations.

In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow, and the penetration rate will exceed 30% for the first time. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will grow rapidly, reaching 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9% respectively; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 31.6%, and the development trend will continue to improve; The export of new energy vehicles is 1.203 million, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%, which has significantly affected the consumption of refined oil products.

2024 is a critical stage for the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan". China's economy adheres to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, emphasizing "consolidating and enhancing the positive trend of economic recovery, and continuing to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth." The domestic economy continues to grow, and the demand for refined oil products will continue to grow steadily. Building a new energy system and promoting digital and intelligent transformation will be inevitable choices for the development of the refined oil industry. The construction of the regulatory system for the refined oil industry will also be further strengthened and improved.

2024 is still the year when domestic refined oil market supervision continues to improve and results are consolidated. The continuous improvement of the domestic refined oil industry regulatory system will more effectively and thoroughly eliminate and manage existing non-compliance resources from the entire process of crude oil circulation, refined oil production, wholesale and retail, so that the operating order of the industry will continue to be standardized and provide long-term healthy and stable operation of the industry. Provide guarantees.

The refining industry continues to expand its capacity and refined oil output continues to grow. China's refining capacity will enter a new round of expansion. It is expected that 85 million tons of production capacity will start in 2024-2027. The country will further rectify backward refining capacity of approximately 35 million tons. It is expected that China's primary crude oil processing capacity will remain at 980 million tons in 2024. The average scale of refining will be further improved. As the scale of refining capacity continues to expand, refined oil production will also continue to grow. However, there is limited room for growth in China's refining capacity in the future. Coupled with the influence of multiple factors such as strict control of new production capacity, the growth rate of refined oil production may slow down.

Refined oil consumption will return to a low-speed growth channel. As the economy and society continue to pick up and high-quality development steadily advances, demand for refined oil products will continue to grow. However, under the premise of moderate and low-speed growth in the number of fuel vehicles, the gradual return to normal international routes, and the increasing efforts of new energy substitution, refined oil consumption It will return to the normal growth channel of low-speed growth, and the apparent consumption of refined oil products is expected to exceed 400 million tons in 2024. As new energy vehicles continue to make efforts, the growth of demand for traditional gasoline is limited, gasoline consumption may drop significantly, and the peak time may be advanced; increased infrastructure investment will push up passenger and freight demand and boost diesel consumption, but driven by the "double carbon" goal, the growth rate of diesel demand will further slow down; with the recovery of the domestic and foreign aviation industry and the gradual increase in the number of flights, it is expected that demand for aviation fuel will continue to increase and the growth rate will return to normal.

International crude oil prices will fluctuate widely, exacerbating the risk of price fluctuations in the refined oil market. International events such as the Ukraine crisis, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea crisis will still affect the global energy market. Geopolitical risks have increased the shock range of crude oil prices. Taking into account the situation of all parties, oil prices are expected to operate between US$70 and US$85/barrel in 2024.