Editor's Note

On [specific date], the Baize Strategy Research Institute of Southwest University of Political Science and Law successfully hosted the "Third Global Security Governance Academic Symposium." The conference featured one main forum and two sub-forums titled "Global Security Initiatives and Future Prospects" and "Global Security Initiatives and Win-Win Cooperation." It invited numerous representatives from various institutions including Tsinghua University, Fudan University, Renmin University of China, Zhejiang University, Sun Yat-sen University, Nanjing University, Lanzhou University, Yunnan University, Shanghai University, Guangdong Police College, Sichuan Police College, Henan Police College, Beijing Maritime and Land Development Security Strategy Research Center, CGE Peace Development Foundation, Western Development Strategy Research Center, Oxford University Forestry Research Institute, Pakistan Human Destiny Community Research Center, and the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities at Ho Chi Minh National University. The symposium achieved excellent discussion outcomes. The "Baize Research" editorial team has compiled some of the speeches from the guests and, with the authors' consent, is publishing them here for the benefit of the readers.

中缅经济走廊是中国“一带一路”倡议的重要组成部分。近年来，美国为了推进印太战略，加大在缅甸的渗透力度，挑动缅甸内乱。2024年10月18日晚5时许，中国驻曼德勒总领馆临街一栋办公楼遭遇爆炸袭击；10月20日，缅甸少数民族地方武装再次与军政府发生大规模冲突，大批缅甸难民聚集到中缅边境口岸避难，严重威胁我在缅人员和利益安全，并危及我西南边境地区的安全稳定，亟待引起高度重视和积极应对。The strategic objective of the United States in instigating the civil war in Myanmar.******（一）破坏中缅经济合作China's investment projects in Myanmar span various fields including infrastructure construction, energy development, and agricultural cooperation. The China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project has always been a focal point of bilateral cooperation. The United States is inciting civil war in Myanmar, on one hand, to disrupt the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project and threaten China's energy supply chain security; on the other hand, currently, the U.S. is already driving a wedge between China-Vietnam and China-Philippines relations. By inciting civil war in Myanmar to undermine the construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, its ultimate goal is to disrupt the economic integration process between China and ASEAN.（二）控制缅甸战略资源The international non-governmental organization "Global Witness" published an article on its official website in [year] [month], revealing various issues and chaos in rare earth mining in Myanmar, stating that "China has outsourced most of its rare earth mining to Myanmar, bringing devastating costs to Myanmar's environment and local communities." The United States supports and encourages the Kachin Independence Army to compete for rare earth resources in the Panwa and Chipwi regions, aiming to hinder Myanmar's export of rare earth resources to China and ultimately attempt to control Myanmar's rare earth resources.（三）施加地缘政治影响美国在缅甸通过长期挑动高烈度的内战，扶持反华亲美武装力量上台执政，一方面是破坏中缅关系，在中南半岛施加美国的地缘政治影响；另一方面将缅甸内战战火引向中国西南边境地区，破坏中国边境的安全稳定，遏制中国发展。The United States inciting civil war in Myanmar is a method to undermine my interests in Myanmar and threaten the security and stability of my southwestern border.（一）对缅甸进行意识形态渗透，挑拨缅甸内部矛盾，挑动民地武装与政府军的对立、对抗，扶持亲美武装力量上台执政Since the "Saffron Revolution" in Myanmar, the United States has been utilizing the "Democracy Foundation" to fund reactionary media within Myanmar, intensifying ideological infiltration, inciting discontent among the populace, and exacerbating social conflicts in the country. By leveraging its international discursive power, the U.S. widely disseminates values such as "democracy," "human rights," and "rule of law," supporting Myanmar's so-called democratic movements to bolster the resolve of ethnic armed groups and "democratic factions" against the military government. Through international condemnation of the military government's ethnic cleansing actions, particularly the violence against the Rohingya, the U.S. calls for international sanctions and isolation of the Myanmar military government, applying international pressure and indirectly supporting opposition forces. Additionally, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and its supported non-governmental organizations are actively involved in Myanmar's domestic education sector. For instance, Parami University in Yangon, a higher education institution registered in Washington, D.C., receives funding from the U.S. Department of State and USAID, aiming to cultivate future Myanmar leaders who align with American values.（二）向缅甸“民主运动”等反对派提供资金和技术支持，挑动缅甸民地武装反对和攻击缅甸军政府一是策动颜色革命。自2021年缅甸内战以来，原全国民主联盟（NLD）政府成员流亡海外，原“民盟”的底层人员、承担颜色革命任务的NGO、不满意军方统治的知识分子、心怀分裂企图的民地武装联合，成立联盟政府——民族团结政府（NUG），并将总部设在华盛顿，旨在反对缅甸军方的统治，并推动缅甸的“民主化”进程。二是扶持亲美力量。2022年美国议会通过《缅甸法案》（BURMA Act）宣布，要加强与NUG以及缅甸其他民地武装的联系和协调，美国每年还拨给缅甸民地武装1.2亿美元援助，由NUG管理和支配。三是推动对立对抗。On [specific date], the United States Congress established the Burma Caucus with the goal of "strengthening congressional support for the Burmese people's struggle for democracy and human rights, and opposing the military junta." On [specific date], Senior Advisor to the U.S. Secretary of State Tom Sullivan and Michael Schiffer, the head of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for the Asia region, held an online meeting with Myanmar's "National Unity Government" and ethnic minority opposition groups such as the Karen National Union. They pledged to expand direct support to assist Myanmar's transition to a civilian government and agreed on the necessity of maintaining pressure on the military junta.（三）通过国际人权组织舆论攻击缅甸军方并向联合国安理会施加压力，要求制裁缅甸军方，为缅甸民地武装攻击军政府寻求合法性****在美国幕后操纵下，“世界人权报告”2023年发文指责联合国安理会针对缅甸动乱不作为：“联合国安理会自2022年12月通过有关缅甸的决议以来，除了发表几份声明外，几乎没有作为。缅甸军方继续无视该决议，而安理会没有采取进一步具体、有意义的行动，如实施全球武器禁运、将该国情势提交国际刑事法院审议，或对军政府领导层和军方所拥有的公司实施有约束力的针对性制裁。”2024年10月10日，联合国缅甸人权状况特别报告员安德鲁斯（Tom Andrews）再次警告称，“全球阻止缅甸内战的努力显然没有奏效，并敦促各国领导人切断军政府的资金、武器和合法性。”（四）联合日本、印度等其他反华力量，支持缅甸民地武装，搅乱缅甸政局，破坏中缅经济走廊建设****日本和印度都是美国印太战略的重要成员国，近年来，美国联合日、印等反华势力介入缅甸政局，以阻碍和破坏中缅经济走廊建设。从2021年起，日本就通过国际组织向缅甸援助了逾1.09亿美元所谓的“人道主义”援助。2024年5月14日，日本高级特使高村正彦会见了缅甸少数民族武装组织代表。日本介入缅甸可以看作是其扩大在亚洲地区影响力、布局利用地缘因素制衡中国的战略措施之一。印度一直对中巴经济走廊耿耿于怀，对中缅经济走廊建设也高度警惕，有信息表明，印度向缅甸民地武售卖各种武器和弹药等军事物资和生活物资，并插手协调缅甸的两支民地武装即钦邦民族军和钦邦兄弟会联盟之间的武装纷争，企图扩大印度在缅甸的影响力，并破坏中缅经济走廊建设。（五）利用缅甸“克钦独立军”（KIA）作为代理人破坏中缅合作，在中缅边境地区制造冲突、破坏我国西南边境地区安全稳定当前，缅甸最大的亲美势力是活跃在缅甸西北地区的克钦独立军（KIA）。在美国的支持下，克钦独立军除要求把克钦邦从缅甸独立出去外，还妄图策动中国云南的景颇族等一起进行独立，并试图在中国云南德宏州内发展他们的势力；指责我方在克钦邦“非法”采集稀土资源，诬蔑我国在缅采矿破坏环境，还占领克钦邦的中缅贸易雷基（Lwelgel）口岸，并声明未经克钦独立军批准，中缅双方都不得进行边境贸易，并对过往的货物收取过路费，对通过其管制区的中缅油气管道收取“保护费”。截至10月19日，克钦独立军击败克钦边防军（丁英部），占领克钦邦第一特区首府板瓦镇（中缅边境线上的一个重要的边贸口岸城市），导致大量缅甸难民聚集中缅边境缅方一侧并企图越境进入我云南边境避难，严重侵犯我在缅利益并危及我云南边境地区安全稳定。Third, the Threat Posed to Our Country by the United States Inciting Civil War in Myanmar****（一）威胁我西南边境安全稳定one is在当前中美博弈日趋激烈、美国加强推进印太战略的大背景下，美国在我周边支持反华势力围堵、遏制和破坏我发展和安全的战略不会改变，所以未来美国利用缅甸民地武装乃至派遣雇佣军进入缅甸针对我国的破坏不会停止。second is缅甸最为激进的克钦极端民族主义者认为，缅甸克钦邦、印度阿萨姆邦克钦族群以及我国云南境内怒江西岸的景颇族、怒族、傈僳族都属于一个整体，理应被“整合”在一起，形成一个“独立”的“政治实体”，所以缅甸克钦独立军必将是中缅边境地区我方一侧安全稳定的严重隐患。third is在美国援助下，缅甸内部各派武装为了自身利益，长期从事灰色乃至黑色产业，向我方一侧边境地区输出枪支弹药以及其他违禁品，其跨国犯罪给我西南边境地区安全稳定造成严重威胁。fourth is一旦中缅边境口岸失守，部分缅甸武装分子、难民及伪装成难民的敌特分子和恐怖分子等非法越境进入我国边境地区，势必会威胁我边境地区的安全稳定。（二）我国在缅人员和投资面临较为严峻的安全风险挑战one is当前缅甸国内存在着强烈的民族独立意识和对外来势力干涉的高度警惕和戒备心理。我国在缅甸的经济影响力不断扩大，尤其是在能源、矿产等领域的大规模投资，也被部分缅甸民众视为是我国对缅甸主权的一种侵犯，再加上我国与缅甸军政府之间相对密切的合作关系，使得缅甸民间的反华情绪也在升温扩散。这种情绪不仅对中缅关系带来严重冲击，也对我国在缅人员和投资安全构成潜在威胁，如一些缅甸非政府组织对我在缅投资的项目进行干扰和破坏。second is缅甸军政府为了拉中国下水，可能蓄意制造威胁我国在缅人员人身财产安全和项目合作的案件并嫁祸缅甸民地武装，如此次曼德拉中国使馆爆炸虽然被军政府定性为恐怖袭击，但也有不少人怀疑此次袭击的背后主导是军政府，以激发我国对缅甸民地武装的愤怒，同时争取我国对其更多的援助和支持，给我国处理中缅关系也带来不少难题。third is缅甸民地武等反对派武装在美国的幕后策划下，蓄意干扰和破坏中缅合作。如克钦独立军就曾在美国的策动下，对我国在缅甸投资建设的水电站进行设卡收费，甚至劫持我国工程人员并索要赎金。（三）极易诬蔑和损害我国际形象美国策动缅甸内乱导致大批难民涌入我云南边境，而我方为了防止缅甸难民或伪装成难民的敌特破坏分子、恐怖分子、跨国犯罪分子进入我国从事跨国犯罪活动及维护我边境地区安全稳定，采取了阻止缅甸难民进入我国边境地区的举措，美西方媒体及缅甸境内的美西方非政府组织可能趁机诬蔑我国支持缅甸军政府独裁专制打压民地武装和谴责我国对缅甸难民见死不救，极易损害我国国际形象。2024年8月中旬，我外长王毅访缅会晤敏昂莱，大量外媒相继报道转引缅甸官方媒体，诬称“中国已承诺向缅甸军政府提供技术支持和援助，以进行人口普查，然后举行选举，这表明缅甸军政府在被武装叛乱逼入困境与节节败退之际仍然得到了北京的支持。”曼德拉领事馆爆炸案发生后，2024年10月16日法新社在一则关于“缅甸军政府领导人敏昂莱据报将于11月访华”的报道中，诬蔑“中国是国际舞台上为数不多的为缅甸提供武器的缅甸军政府的支持者之一，中国支持缅甸组织新选举的计划，称应让这个饱受内战蹂躏的国家开始‘民主过渡’。” 2024年10月22日，自由亚洲电台等媒体对中缅边境难民问题进行报道，称“反军政府的克钦独立军和盟军上周占领了缅中边境城镇邦瓦附近的军事阵地。”“因应这场战斗，中国上星期五（18日）晚关闭了克钦独立军控制下的边境大门，并拒绝让那些逃离该地区的平民进入，导致约1000人受困在边境。”4. Countermeasures and Suggestions（一）加强中缅边境治理Utilize high-tech intelligent methods such as big data and drones to enhance the monitoring, patrolling, and regulation of border areas. Maintain high vigilance and closely monitor the movements of cross-border residents on our side of the China-Myanmar border to prevent them from being instigated by Myanmar-related forces to cross the border for illegal criminal activities. Strengthen the investigation, review, repatriation, and control of "three illegal" personnel, laborers, and business people crossing the China-Myanmar border. Be prepared to warn, prevent, and respond to emergencies caused by the escalation of the Myanmar civil war, which may lead to a large number of Myanmar refugees, including disguised enemy agents, terrorists, and transnational criminals, entering our border to engage in illegal and destructive activities.（二）保护我在缅人员和利益安全Through professional analysis and assessment, Myanmar is categorized into "high-risk areas, medium-risk areas, low-risk areas, and safe zones." This classification aims to strengthen the security capabilities of our engineering project companies, promote a tiered and categorized response strategy, and safeguard the safety of our personnel and interests in Myanmar. Additionally, we will enhance the integrated military deployment of land, sea, and air forces on our side of the China-Myanmar border and near the Kyaukphyu Port in Myanmar. In the event of sudden extreme situations, we will conduct long-range artillery strikes and drone attacks against any Myanmar armed forces that pose a serious threat to the personal safety of our personnel in Myanmar, our significant interests, and border security.（三）优化外交结构与方式，促进缅甸内部不同势力和平解决争端******我国应与缅甸军政府、民地武装、民选政府及地方部落和民间组织加强双边和多边的外交，并借助东盟等国际组织平台，推进与缅甸多方力量的对话、沟通、协商及合作解决其内部纠纷；通过打拉结合的方式，分化瓦解缅甸内部的反华势力，防范美国和日本、印度等外部势力介入和干涉缅甸内政。通过公共外交和民间外交加强中缅人文、科技与教育等领域的交流，加强与缅甸在基建、能源、矿业和数字、绿色经济等领域的合作共赢，并加大对缅甸医疗卫生与教育的援助力度，增强我国对缅甸的影响力和辐射力。
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the writer

Xie Guiping is a specially appointed researcher at the "Qiushi Think Tank" of the National High-end Think Tank - Regional Coordinated Development Research Center of Zhejiang University, Chairman of the Zhejiang Province Development and Security Think Tank Alliance, Chief Expert of the Zhejiang (Zhejiang University) International Development and Governance Research Center, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Public Administration of Zhejiang University, and Deputy Director of the Non-Traditional Security and Peaceful Development Research Center of Zhejiang University; Dong Zheng is a doctoral student at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University.

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Editor: Lv Mengting Responsible Editor: Chang Yuhao Reviewer: Ni Chunle