连日来，美国政府频频挥舞"关税大棒"——自月以来，特朗普政府宣布以芬太尼等问题为由对中国输美产品加征%关税，宣布对进口钢铁、铝征收%的关税，签署备忘录要求确定与各贸易伙伴的"对等关税"，表示将对进口汽车征收%左右的关税，药品和芯片等产品进口关税初步定在%左右……

The short-term, high-intensity, and wide-ranging tax hikes or announcements of tax increases have stirred up a storm in the international community, quickly drawing widespread attention and strong reactions from all sides. What considerations lie behind the U.S. move, and what profound impacts will it have on the global economy?

多位受访专家认为，特朗普政府此次宣布加征关税，延续了其"美国优先"的霸权逻辑。单方面关税措施违反了世贸组织规则，将破坏国际贸易秩序和多边合作态势，产生严重的负面影响。

"美国优先"下的关税霸权

On the international trade stage, the United States has frequently wielded the tariff stick, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods since last year, ranging from high-end manufacturing electronic chips to everyday textiles. Initially targeting China, Canada, and Mexico, the scope has gradually expanded to include almost all countries. This has not only disrupted the normal operation of the global industrial chain but also caused costs to soar for many multinational corporations.

近日，特朗普再次就任美国总统。其履新后的一系列动作，尤其是频繁挥舞的"关税大棒"，让世界经济陷入新的不确定性之中。业界认为，特朗普政府一系列加征关税政策的背后，有着复杂的多重目的。

"核心目标仍是通过经济施压来维护美国霸权，更好地调控贸易格局，其动机呈现多维战略考量。"对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院教授、全球创新与治理研究院执行院长吕越对国际商报记者表示，一是巩固本土产业；二是维护金融霸权；三是强化选民支持，兑现选举承诺；四是跨领域施压，将药品关税与芬太尼管控、汽车关税与移民政策捆绑，推动美国优先议程；五是增加财政收入，利用关税收入弥补减税带来的财政赤字，同时为美国争议项目提供资金支持。

"美国加征关税政策呈现出范围广、税率高、打击对象无差别、非经济领域介入、规则破坏性强五大特征。"上海对外经贸大学国际组织学院（贸易谈判学院）院长应品广对国际商报记者表示，美国加征关税，最直接的目的是减少贸易逆差，这一诉求早在特朗普第一任期就备受关注。实施对等关税能够提高进口产品的关税税率，导致进口产品价格上升，从而提升外国商品进入本国市场的难度，进而减少贸易逆差。

"值得注意的是，美国所谓的'对等'并不局限于关税对等。根据美国发布的《美国优先贸易政策》备忘录，美国还会综合考虑其他因素，如增值税、数字服务税，甚至汇率，以及任何可能影响美国企业成本和竞争力的要素。"应品广说道。

应品广认为，美加征关税政策还有一个重要目的——将其作为谈判筹码。目前，许多关税政策距离正式实施尚有时日。"美方这种提前放风的行为是一种施压手段，目的是迫使其他国家主动前来谈判，以便美国能提出各种要求，实现其他方面的诉求。"

给世界经济"泼冷水"给多边体制添变数

At present, the global economy is on a bumpy road to recovery. Although the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic has gradually lifted, the scars it left have not fully healed. Many countries and regions are grappling with challenges in rebuilding supply chains, while businesses continue to face high production and operational costs. The job market has yet to return to its pre-pandemic prosperity, and nations are striving to find new drivers of economic growth. Although there are signs of recovery in international trade volumes, the growth rate remains sluggish.

而美国却在此时挥舞起"关税大棒"，对众多进口商品加征关税。各方普遍认为，这一行为严重扰乱了全球贸易秩序，给世界经济复苏造成巨大阻碍。巴西财政部部长费尔南多阿达直言，美方单边关税举措不利于全球经济复苏，不仅损害国际贸易活力、阻碍世界经济增长，还将给美国及其贸易伙伴带来负面影响。欧盟委员会也发表声明称，美方"对等关税"政策是个错误，将加剧世界经济不确定性，破坏全球市场效率和一体化进程。

应品广称，目前市场都在关注美国如何实施关税政策，如"对等关税"的"对等"究竟如何界定。若按照关税税率来计算，印度、韩国、巴西、越南等国的关税率与美国的差距较大，必然会受到沉重打击。这种影响范围不再局限于个别特定国家，而是会大规模波及众多国家。

"美方一旦加征关税，实施所谓的'对等'措施，将会对全球产业链和供应链造成巨大冲击。美国是许多国家最大的出口市场，加征关税后，这些国家原本出口至美国的产品，要么难以进入美国市场，要么出口量大幅下降，他们就不得不寻找新的市场替代。例如，印度原本销往美国的农产品，必须寻找新买家；欧盟出口到美国的汽车，也要另寻销路。这就迫使相关国家对供应链和产业链进行全新调整。"应品广说。

Lv Yue also believes that the recent tariff policies of the Trump administration are undermining the balance of the global economy, exacerbating international tensions, and affecting the operation of industrial chains, economic growth, green development, and international cooperation. Firstly, it leads to the fragmentation of the global industrial chain; imposing additional tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals will force global enterprises to adjust their supply chains, increase global production costs, and threaten the model of global cooperation. Secondly, it results in downward pressure on the economy; tariff policies will drive up trade costs and trigger retaliatory measures from various countries, potentially leading to a global economic slowdown and severely impacting small and medium-sized economies that rely on global supply chains. Thirdly, it hinders green development; the U.S. tariff policies are striking at the EU's green technology and new energy industries, disrupting global cooperation on green transformation and affecting the progress of global climate governance.

According to the experts interviewed, the more severe impact of the U.S. tariff hike policy is its shock to the multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core. The rules-based multilateral trading system, centered on the WTO, is a crucial component of the post-World War II multilateral framework and a key safeguard for the steady and sustained progress of economic globalization. A fundamental cornerstone of multilateral trade rules is the tariff reduction commitments agreed upon by nations through consultation. Under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) within the WTO framework, tariff reduction commitments determined through multilateral negotiations are legally binding. No member state may unilaterally raise tariffs without consensus through consultation.

Ying Pinguang stated that although the United States has not formally withdrawn from the WTO, its actions have already deviated from the fundamental principles and rules of the organization. For example, according to the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) principle, tariffs should be applied equally and automatically to all other members, yet the U.S. now arbitrarily imposes additional tariffs on certain countries, completely disregarding this principle. Additionally, the WTO's bound tariff mechanism has lost its effectiveness when it comes to the U.S. Every WTO member has bound tariffs and should not impose duties beyond the bound rates, yet the U.S. blatantly ignores these rules, severely undermining the multilateral trading system.

"当前，世贸组织多边规则的权威性和有效性已受到极大挑战。一旦美国月份全面征收所谓的'对等关税'，各国很可能会实施报复性反制措施，引发全面关税战和贸易战，多边贸易体制将岌岌可危。"应品广直言，全面的关税战一旦开打，美国必将遭遇经济规律的无情反击和世界各国的坚决反制。美国需要权衡自身的承受能力，是否能够承受加征关税可能导致的国内通货膨胀加剧、产业界反对声浪高涨以及国际社会的强烈谴责和反制等诸多后果。

"美国后续也可能根据实际情况调整关税措施，毕竟短期内美国可能难以承受关税政策带来的负面影响。"应品广如是说道。