From the industry's perspective, China's SAF industry has a good development foundation and resource conditions. If it can be fully utilized, it has huge future development potential.

今年全国两会期间，可持续航空燃料（SAF）成为“热词”，多位代表委员就加快推动中国SAF发展提出相关建议。 作为交通行业实现“双碳”目标的关键领域之一，航空业受到越来越多的关注。相较其他行业，航空业的减排方案和减排路径较为有限，减排难度大，被称为“难减排”领域之一。SAF由于具备热值较高、零排放等特点，为航空业减排带来了新的可能和前景。 当前，中国已有企业在SAF相关产业链进行布局，具备一定的SAF生产能力，但整体来看，中国SAF供需市场还处于发展初期。在业内看来，中国SAF产业具备较好的发展基础和资源条件，若能充分利用，未来发展潜力巨大。

Important measures to achieve the net zero goal

SAF is a direct-use alternative to liquid fuel, which can reduce carbon emissions by up to 85 per cent compared with traditional aviation fuels. At present, SAF uses forestry residues, agricultural wastes, waste edible oils and urban solid wastes as raw materials for production. In October 2021, the 77th annual meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) approved the resolution of the global air transport industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Since then, IATA published a series of roadmaps in June 2023, calling on all stakeholders in the aviation industry to take action to provide the necessary tools, policies and products suitable for a net zero world to ensure the success of this fundamental change in the aviation industry, and recommended that energy and new fuel infrastructure focus on fuel and new energy carrier infrastructure upstream of the airport, promoting the use of SAF or hydrogen-powered aircraft, etc. According to IATA's analysis, if the aviation industry is to achieve net zero emissions by 2025, 65 per cent reduction will be achieved through the use of SAF. In a related report, Deloitte China predicted that China's aviation industry would need to take an important step to implement IATA's commitment to "achieve net zero emissions by 2050" to push SAF production and demand to the necessary levels. Deloitte China pointed out that if China's aviation industry is consistent with IATA's SAF usage target, it is estimated that China's SAF demand will reach 3 million tons / year by 2030, and with the progress of technology and the promotion of China's "double carbon" goal, China's SAF demand will reach 86 million tons / year by 2050. In order to promote such substantial growth, the industry needs to take measures to reduce production costs and consolidate domestic and international demand for SAF.

rich raw material sources

In fact, China attaches great importance to carbon emission reduction in the aviation industry. As early as January 2022, the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued the Special Plan for the Green Development of Civil Aviation during the 14th five-year Plan, which is the first green development plan in the history of China's civil aviation. It defines the guiding ideology, basic principles, objectives, requirements and main tasks of the green development of civil aviation during the 14th five-year Plan period. In October last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments jointly issued the outline for the Development of Green Aviation Manufacturing Industry (2023-2035), which pointed out that during the 14th five-year Plan period, trunk and branch lines and other medium and large aircraft adhere to the coexistence of new aerodynamic layout, sustainable aviation fuel and hybrid power; at the same time, actively explore hydrogen energy, liquefied natural gas and other technical routes, forward-looking layout of the future industry. Thanks to the support of relevant policies, the demand and production capacity of SAF in China are increasing rapidly in recent years, and the relevant market is also taking shape. Statistics show that the annual production capacity of SAF built in China has reached 200000 tons, including 100000 tons / year production capacity of Sinopec Ningbo Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., 100000 tons / year production capacity of Yiselai of Hong Kong and China Gas, and the announced planned production capacity of sustainable aviation coal exceeds 3 million tons. With the entry of Airbus, Air China, Cathay Pacific and other aviation coal consumer enterprises and aviation department, China's sustainable aviation coal market has begun to take shape. It is understood that at present, there are four main production technology routes for SAF, among which oil hydrogenation (HEFA) mainly uses waste oils or oil plants as raw materials, gasification-Fischer synthesis mainly uses agricultural and forestry wastes, urban solid wastes, planted cellulose energy crops as raw materials, and alcohol to oil mainly uses agricultural and forestry wastes, corn, sugarcane and other biomass that can be converted into alcohols as raw materials. Synthetic fuel technology mainly uses carbon dioxide and green hydrogen as raw materials. At present, most SAF production enterprises adopt the HEFA route with waste oil or oil plants as raw materials. Because the other three new technologies are not yet mature, there are only small-scale or experimental production projects. Deloitte China pointed out in the report that China has sufficient potential SAF raw material resources and great potential for development. Among them, 3.4 million tons / year of waste edible oil, 207 million tons / year of agricultural waste, 195 million tons / year of forestry waste, 23.5 million tons / year of urban organic solid waste and 5 million tons / year of industrial waste ethanol. If these raw materials can be fully utilized, the upper limit of SAF capacity can reach 46.41 million tons / year.

Further strengthen multi-party collaboration

At present, China's SAF industry is in the early stage of development, and it needs the joint efforts of relevant competent departments and all parties in the industry to accelerate the development potential of SAF and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the aviation industry. The Research report on the Development of Sustainable Aviation fuel in China (hereinafter referred to as "the report") issued by the Institute of Energy Research of Peking University points out that the raw materials for the production of SAF are widely distributed in China, which provides a guarantee for the supply of SAF. However, there are still many uncertainties about how to strengthen the development of different technological routes, strengthen industrial chain cooperation and design corresponding incentive mechanisms to improve the economy of SAF products. The report points out that policy promotion is the key to the development of SAF, and multi-party cooperation is a necessary guarantee at the implementation level. It is suggested to further clarify the policy direction, set up an inter-ministerial working group and formulate an action plan, strengthen the evaluation and economic analysis of basic raw material information, guide the collective action of the industrial chain, support technological innovation, and actively carry out pilot applications. Feng Zhenglin, former director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, pointed out a few days ago that the promotion of SAF in China started early and has the advantage of resource endowment in the preparation of raw materials, but it still faces some problems. First, lack of overall planning, there is an urgent need to do a good job in the top-level design of industrial ecology from the national level; second, there is an urgent need to establish and improve the system and mechanism to promote the development of industrial clusters such as certification standards and raw material supply; third, insufficient investment in technological innovation, there is an urgent need to strengthen key technologies and improve the quality and efficiency of industrial development. Fourth, the international discourse right is insufficient, so there is an urgent need to establish an effective mechanism to strengthen the strategic initiative and institutional discourse right of international civil aviation cooperation. Mo Dingge, chairman of Sinopec Ningbo Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., suggested that the first is to speed up the establishment of a large-scale and efficient supply system of waste oils and other bio-based raw materials; the second is to speed up the establishment of China's independent and controllable sustainable certification system; the third is to improve the industrial policy support system to promote the healthy development of the SAF industry.

Wen| Reporter Li Ling