Industry insiders pointed out that the oil price level of US$90/barrel is a "fear premium" brought about by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, further proving that the geopolitical situation is the biggest uncertainty affecting the trend of the oil market this year.

3月底至4月初短短几周内，国际油市再起波澜，中东和东欧地缘局势推动两大国际基准油价上涨，其中，布伦特原油价格年内首次站上90美元/桶上方。
业内人士指出，90美元/桶的油价水平是地缘冲突升级带来的“恐惧溢价”，进一步证明地缘局势是影响今年油市走势的最大不确定因素。

Further bullish signs have emerged

As the situation in the Middle East escalates, international oil prices have risen to a five-month high. On April 5, Brent crude oil reached US$91.17/barrel, the highest price since October 20 last year. It was also the first time this year that it exceeded US$90/barrel. The U.S. WTI price reached US$86.91/barrel.

On April 8, the situation in the Middle East eased, and the two major international benchmark oil prices fell immediately, but expectations for increases during the year did not decrease. Data compiled by the Financial Times shows that as of early April, Brent crude oil prices have risen by 18.3% during the year, and U.S. WTI prices have risen by 21.2% during the year.
Some industry insiders said that the two major international benchmark oil prices both formed a "golden cross" pattern in the first week of April, that is, the 50-day moving average exceeded the 200-day moving average. This is a bottoming signal in the early stage of the rally, indicating that prices have The upside conditions are available.
Data compiled by CNBC News Network shows that the 50-day moving average of Brent crude oil is US$83.74/barrel, which is higher than the 200-day moving average of US$83.54/barrel. The 50-day moving average for U.S. WTI prices is US$79.07/barrel, slightly higher than the 200-day moving average of US$79.02/barrel.
On April 10, due to market concerns about a possible new conflict between Iran and Israel, the two major oil prices rose again. Among them, Brent crude oil closed at US$90.48/barrel, and U.S. WTI closed at US$86.21/barrel.

The upward challenge of oil prices still exists

As Brent crude oil prices break through the long-term resistance level of US$90/barrel, the market has become highly concerned about the future trend of oil prices. Argus, an international energy and commodity price assessment agency, said in an interview with a reporter from China Energy News: "We believe that the two major international benchmark oil prices will rise further. Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise from the average price of US$85.4/barrel in March to US$90/barrel, and the average price in May will further rise to US$92/barrel.”

阿格斯认为，6月，布伦特原油价格将有所缓和，但仍将保持在90美元/桶以上。不过，如果“欧佩克+”去年11月达成的额外减产量在今年第三季度开始逐步重回市场，布伦特原油价格的涨势将从7月开始放缓。
彭博社指出，在全球原油需求增长的情况下，“欧佩克+”继续维持减产，第一季度油价已经突破此前预估的83美元/桶。
美银美林则认为，布伦特原油价格正在形成双底形态，为触及112美元/桶铺路。
瑞银大宗商品分析师乔瓦尼·斯陶诺沃坦言：“最近的价格上涨受地缘局势紧张推动，但需求好于预期以及原油产量下降等基本面因素也起到一定作用。”
澳新银行分析称，受经济形势好转，加上供应持续紧张和地缘风险上升，短期内油价料将进一步上涨，已将布伦特原油价格预估上调至95美元/桶。
摩根士丹利则基于新的地缘局势变化将第二季度布伦特原油价格上调至92美元/桶，第三季度上调至94美元美元/桶。
针对油价上行的外部压力，阿格斯强调，阻碍油价上涨的不确定因素包括通胀上升推迟各国央行降息时间、全球原油需求增长低于此前预测、今年美国原油产量持续增长、地缘局势等。

Supply tensions intensified in the second and third quarters

On the demand side, according to Thomson Reuters analysis, the recovery of U.S. manufacturing will drive up demand, especially for middle distillates. In addition, the surge in oil prices prompted the United States to urgently suspend its strategic oil reserve program on April 2 and decide not to purchase as many as 3 million barrels of oil for its strategic oil reserve base in Louisiana.

Argus told the China Energy News reporter that due to the gradual tightening of fundamentals due to the "OPEC +" production cuts, the slowdown in U.S. crude oil production growth, the decline in global crude oil inventories and relatively strong demand growth, oil prices should be well supported in the short term. However, geopolitical conflicts may still bring additional volatility to markets.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that due to multiple factors such as "OPEC +" production cuts, declining Russian production, and rising seasonal demand, supply constraints may become more serious in the second and third quarters.
Bank of America predicts that the global crude oil market will experience a gap of 450,000 barrels per day in the second quarter. Coupled with the continuation of "OPEC +" production cuts, global crude oil inventories will continue to decline, and the imbalance between supply and demand will provide room for further oil prices.
"OPEC +" has extended the production reduction agreement originally scheduled to expire at the end of March for another three months to the end of June. The total production reduction will remain at a level of 2.2 million barrels per day, and recently reiterated its commitment to production limits. OPEC said that despite the emergence of countries with overproduction, it would require them to continue to abide by the rules and compensate for excess production.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil brokerage firm PVM, pointed out that the attack by Ukraine drones on Russia's oil infrastructure has also had an impact on the supply of crude oil and petroleum products. On April 2, Russia's third-largest refinery was attacked, with a daily output of about 340,000 barrels.
It is noteworthy that Palestine and Israel are conducting ceasefire negotiations but tensions still exist. Coupled with Iran's recent threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of tightening the crude oil supply side remains considerable. According to Bloomberg News, 20% of global crude oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.