There has been a long-standing call for the expansion of the national carbon market, and the conditions for expansion are gradually maturing. It is generally believed in the industry that based on the current status of various industries, the first batch of industries to be included in the expansion is likely to include electrolytic aluminum, cement, steel and other industries.

The expansion of the national carbon market is once again put on the agenda. Zhao Yingmin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, recently stated at a regular policy briefing of the State Council that special research on expanding the enclosure has been carried out. Special research, evaluation and demonstration have been carried out on quota allocation methods, accounting reporting methods, accounting requirements guidelines, and expansion implementation paths for key industries. The drafting of relevant technical documents has been basically completed. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively promoting and striving to realize China as soon as possible. The first expansion of the carbon emissions trading market.

The expansion of the national carbon market has also been included in this year's government work report. The 2024 government work report pointed out that carbon peak and carbon neutrality should be actively and steadily promoted. Solidly carry out the "Top Ten Actions to Peak Carbon". Improve carbon emission statistical accounting and verification capabilities, establish a carbon footprint management system, and expand the coverage of the national carbon market industry. It is understood that as of the end of last year, the cumulative transaction volume of the national carbon emissions trading market reached 440 million tons, with a transaction volume of approximately 24.9 billion yuan. The transaction volume in the second performance cycle increased by 19% compared with the first performance cycle, and the transaction volume increased by 89% compared with the first performance cycle. Under current market conditions, what impact will the expansion have? What are the industries to be expanded? What other aspects need to be paid attention to in expanding the enclosure?

The larger the coverage, the more controlled carbon emissions

There have been calls for the expansion of the national carbon market for a long time. At present, the national carbon market is only included in the power industry. The National carbon emissions Trading Market Construction Plan (Power Generation Industry) announced by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2017 is clear. Participants include enterprises or other economic organizations with annual emissions of 26000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (comprehensive energy consumption of about 10, 000 tons of standard coal) or above. Self-owned power plants in other industries with annual emissions of 26000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent or more shall be treated as key emission units in the power generation industry. On this basis, the scope of key emission units will be gradually expanded. Wang Ke, a professor at the Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center of Beijing Institute of Technology, told China Energy News that at present, the national carbon market only includes the power generation industry, and the trading variety is relatively single, while the carbon markets of the European Union and the United States include many industries, which is also an important reason why there is a big gap in the activity of China's national carbon market compared with that of the European Union. "in the short term, the inclusion of a single industry is not conducive to the formation of effective emission reduction incentives in the carbon market, and is not conducive to the formation of emission reduction constraints on other high emission industries; in the long run, it is not conducive to the discovery function of price, and it is difficult to form a reasonable carbon price. reduce the cost of emission reduction for the whole society." After the expansion, the total carbon emissions covered will rise significantly. Wang Ke, deputy dean of the Institute of Ecological Civilization at Renmin University of China, said that official data show that power generation, iron and steel, building materials, non-ferrous, petrochemical, chemical, paper and aviation account for about 75% of China's total carbon dioxide emissions. the power industry accounts for about 40% of the country's total carbon dioxide emissions. "as a supporting policy, the wider the coverage of the national carbon market and the more carbon emissions to be controlled, the easier it will be to give full play to the market mechanism to promote a wider range of industry emissions reduction, which is also conducive to the achievement of China's dual-carbon goal."

Conditions for expansion are gradually maturing

全国碳市场的扩围条件正逐步成熟。伦交所集团碳分析师宋雨彤认为，一方面，此前已有碳市场试点纳入了一些工业行业进行管控，积累了试点经验；另一方面，对工业行业的碳排放报告、核查工作一直都在进行，有数据基础。此外，生态环境部去年已开始对扩围的一些关键问题，如核算边界、关键参数、配额分配等进行了研究。 It is generally believed in the industry that based on the current status of various industries, the first batch of industries to be included in the expansion is likely to include electrolytic aluminum, cement, steel and other industries. 宋雨彤表示，这些行业碳排放量相对较大，数据质量基础较好，且配额分配研究比较充分，产品单一，基准线设置也相对清晰简单。而石化、化工这些行业的产品品类较多，工艺也较为复杂，需要更多时间进行研究。此外，电解铝、水泥、钢铁行业也是欧盟CBAM政策的纳入行业，将这些行业尽早纳入全国碳市场中，也有利于后续应对国际相关政策挑战。“电解铝、水泥、钢铁行业也是除发电行业外，在工业行业中碳排放量较大的行业，目前处于产能过剩阶段，纳入全国碳市场可进一步对这些行业的碳排放指标进行约束和要求，有利于其绿色低碳转型。” 对可能被纳入的行业来说，全国碳市场意味着什么？在宋雨彤看来，如果基准线设置比较严格，势必会提高这些工业企业的碳成本。“不像中国电力行业用户侧受碳成本影响相对较小，工业行业的碳成本可能会沿着供应链传导至下游企业和消费者。” 不过，王克认为，这两年电解铝、钢铁等行业的碳排放态势整体趋缓，为其纳入全国碳市场奠定了基础。这或可降低全国碳市场对这些行业的约束性影响，也有利于纳入工作的开展。

Clarify the development direction and form stable expectations

The goal of expanding the national carbon market has been set, how to accomplish the task? In Wang Ke's view, after the inclusion of the industrial industry, in order to achieve inter-industry carbon trading, it is necessary to ensure the unity of technical standards among various industries, especially carbon emissions accounting. At the same time, the top-level design is needed to provide a stable expectation for the main body of the market. "now people's expectations are not clear, and they think that carbon quotas will become more and more scarce in the future, and there will be a phenomenon of sparing sales in the market, which will affect the trading activity of the market. After stabilizing expectations, the quota allocation, settlement and even carryover of the carbon market can be more clear. In addition, there is no export problem in the power industry, while the industrial industry is facing the problem of international trade barriers, and we need to consider how to deal with the impact of these external factors after expansion. " Wang Ke said frankly that in many places, in order to strive for space for future carbon emissions, the carbon peak has been turned into a "carbon charge", constantly charging the total amount of carbon emissions. therefore, the allocation of national carbon emission quotas should be strongly related to the overall national carbon peak and total carbon emission reduction targets. "it is also necessary to establish a quota allocation mechanism under total constraints as soon as possible, and more reasonably determine the total amount of carbon quotas for each industry during the implementation period according to the national carbon peak road map and the emission reduction path of various industries." "the proportion of paid initial allocation or auction can be appropriately introduced, and a more clear form of carbon quota auction can be used to establish a paid distribution system, so as to further strengthen the awareness of the whole society that 'carbon emissions have costs and benefits'. In order to promote technological innovation and better participate in the carbon market." Wang Ke said. Song Yutong suggested that industrial enterprises should adapt to the control of the carbon market as soon as possible, not only to establish internal mechanisms related to carbon quota implementation and carbon quota trading, but also to think about how to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions.

original title:The first expansion of the national carbon market has been decided