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04.11.2024

Record 08

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《It's China's turn now!》

Without capacity, we can't change the world.

Prof.

Zheng

Yongnian

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PREFACE

08th Entry Editor's Note

China Shock 2.0?

Only with sufficient capacity can we change the world.

US Treasury Secretary Yellen, during her visit to China, defined the rapid development of China’s new energy industry as “excess capacity,” which she believes poses a threat to the US. The author believes that this is not the first time the West has hyped up China’s “economic warfare,” similar cognitive warfare aims to discredit China’s economic rise. In the face of Western accusations, Chinese officials have responded forcefully, but the response from policy research and academia has been weak.

The author stresses that we should jump out of the mindset of Western economics textbooks and examine the essence of the issue from a political perspective. History has shown that nations with comparative advantages advocate free trade while developing countries favor protectionism. Today, China leads globalization with its advantages in manufacturing, and it is natural to be contained by countries like the US. In response to these challenges, China needs to remain composed, promote win-win outcomes through openness, and shoulder the responsibility of a major power.

01 Who didn't study economics well?

The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, is visiting China, and one of the topics is to discuss the so-called issue of "overcapacity" with China. 在中美经济关系上，美国认为，拜登政府现在面临的最紧迫问题是如何解决中国“电动载人汽车、锂离子电池和太阳能电池”的出口对美国正在耗费数万亿美元发展的行业所构成的威胁。

实际上，最近一段时间以来，美国政策研究界和媒体大肆渲染所谓的中国向世界发动的“经济战”。这场认知战的目的是要使人们相信中国因为内部经济萎靡不振，为扭转经济前景，正将中国制造的廉价商品销往全球；并且中国企业为海量过剩产品寻找海外市场是在中国政府引导的廉价贷款支撑下进行的。 The Wall Street Journal of the United States regards it as a “China shock 2.0”, another multitrillion-dollar test after China shocked the global manufacturing industry more than 20 years ago.

Whether it is "production overcapacity" or the "trade war," both are, in essence, part of the West's economic cognitive war against China in recent years. 可以预计，西方今后类似这样的“中国叙事”会不断产生。中国当然不能也不应该接受美国和一些西方国家的说法。李强总理在和耶伦北京会面时就对美方的观点予以反驳，表示， From a market perspective, the export surge is driven by global demand, which should be viewed objectively. 中国商务部部长王文涛在访问巴黎期间也回应了美方的观点表示，“美国和欧洲对中国‘产能过剩'的指责是毫无根据的”。王文涛指出，中国电动汽车制造商的快速增长得益于创新和供应链，而不是中国政府的补贴。总理这里强调的是市场因素， **因为在市场条件下，供需平衡，不会产生“产能过剩”；如果有“产能过剩”的现象，那也是暂时的。**王文涛部长所强调的则是中国新能源领域所具有的比较优势。

Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Secretary (pictured):AP Photo

The government's response is like this, but the response from the policy research community and academic circles is equally weak and weak. This situation is not difficult to understand, because the so-called "overcapacity" issue was set by the United States, Meanwhile, our scholars only respond, and the response does not jump out of the thinking of Western textbooks at all. 有不少人讽刺耶伦没有读好经济学。但问题是，到底是谁没有读好经济学？不要怀疑耶伦的经济学水平，是一些人自己没有跳出西方经济学的教科书水平，并且奉西方教科书为圣经。耶伦跳出了西方教科书的框架，而中国的学者没有。不仅如此，如果检索一下文献，不难发现，大部分论述“产能过剩”的文献都是由中国学者所作。美国人用“产能过剩”来指责中国，但这个概念却原本是由中国学者“发扬光大”的。其实，这些年来，类似的事情层出不穷。西方制造出某些概念（尤其是针对中国的概念），中国学者不问这些概念的涵义，一哄而上，很快推动这些概念的传播。这是中国学界需要反思的。

The West is not the first to talk about the so-called "excess capacity" in China. 第一次，是中国加入世界贸易组织之后，开始向世界出口大量物美价廉的中中国制造品，被外界的一些人（无论是西方还是非西方，例如东南亚）视为是产能过剩，对世界构成威胁。第二次在十多年前，当中国政府启动“一带一路”倡议时，西方再次说中国的“产能过剩”。尽管“一带一路”目标国家并非西方，而是广大的发展中国家，西方依然称“一带一路”倡议为“新帝国主义”“新殖民主义”“债务陷阱”等等，不一而足。现在当中国向世界出口新能源产品的时候，尽管这完全符合西方多年来所追求的“环保主义”价值，西方再次制造出“产能过剩”叙事。 So this has happened at least the third time, but it won't be the last. 随着中国推行“高质量发展”战略，向世界出口越来越多的“中国制造”的时候，这样的事情会变得越来越频繁，人们需要有足够的思想和理论准备。

02 The nature of "overcapacity"

**问题在于我们需要一个什么样的叙事？经济学能够解释这个现象，但这个问题的本质则是政治的。**这一点，美国人本身也不会否认。美国彭博社发表评论文章说， Yellen's recent remarks about "overcapacity" in China's new energy industry go against one of the most basic principles of economics -- the theory of comparative advantage -- developed over two centuries ago. 根据该理论，如果一国能够以更低成本生产某种产品，其他国家不应设置关税壁垒，而是应该进口这一产品，同时出口自己具有比较优势的产品。

David Ricardo (1772-1823) proposed the famous theory of comparative advantage (Source: Encyclopedia Britannica)

如果从政治层面来看问题，人们可以看到经济学教科书所无法解释的问题。历史地看，具有比较优势的国家（往往是发达国家）提倡自由贸易，而没有比较优势或者具有较少比较优势的国家（往往是后发国家）提倡贸易保护主义。这是早期经济学所说的“比较优势”是指自然形成的比较优势，适用于传统的贸易。但今天无论是西方还是非西方，各国所具有的“比较优势”不再那么“自然”，而具有太多的“人工”要素，包括自然资源分布、制度机制安排、企业运行方式等。简单地说， Today's "comparative advantage" is more determined by a country's manufacturing level. In this field, the West used to lead, so the West advocated free trade; now China leads, so China advocates free trade.

For more than 250 years since the industrial revolution, the West has been leading the world in manufacturing. The Western leadership can be roughly divided into two stages.

The first stage was led by European countries and mainly took place before World War II. 英国是世界上第一个实现工业化的国家，之后扩散到德国、法国和意大利等欧洲各国。“比较优势”理论产生在英国是很自然的，因为英国具有比较优势。较之英国，其他欧洲国家多少都实行贸易保护主义。“国民经济体系”的概念产生在德国也是很自然的，因为要和英国竞争，德国的政府必须扮演更大的作用。美国也是如此，建国一代领袖尤其是财长汉密尔顿提倡重商主义，以高关税来保护美国民族工业，等民族工业发展起来之后再实行开放。尽管美国在二战前已经是世界上第一大经济体，但其卷入世界事物的程度有限，制造业依然是欧洲国家的天下。

After World War II, industrialization became more dispersed and diversified, with the United States, Europe, and Japan forming a "multipolar" situation. 日本是亚洲第一个实现工业化的国家，在其制造业崛起之后，亚洲各国市场充斥着日本产品，更是出口美国和西方。日本、德国和法国和美国也产生了诸多经济纠纷， The US also does everything it can to suppress industries that these countries have a “comparative advantage” in until they give in.

因此，There is no problem of economics "textbooks" because leaders and people in these countries read the same "textbook" ；甚至也不存在意识形态的问题，因为这些都属于西方国家，并且都是美国的盟友。

Alexander Hamilton, one of the founding fathers of the United States, first secretary of the treasury. (image source:Aspenia

在上述这两个阶段，Western industrialization made the West the world’s manufacturing center and generated huge wealth for Western countries, 大大提高了这些国家民众的生活水平，促成了社会从工人阶级向中产阶级的提升。However, at the international level, Western industrial products were heavily sold to developing countries. 在早期，西方国家甚至不惜使用“大炮”打开落后国家的大门，向这些国家倾销商品。 In fact, during the Western colonial period, the colonies were both the providers of raw materials to the mother country and the places where the mother country dumped commodities. 二战之后，当众多国家脱离殖民地而独立，而且具有了自我保护意识之后，为了保护西方的经济利益，西方国家用国际贸易组织，即通过制定规则，来解决国家之间的经济纠纷。

04 Made in China rises in the face of globalization

自1980年代初美国里根革命和英国撒切尔革命之后，世界制造业能力分布发生了巨大的变化 After the prevalence of neoliberal economic policies in the UK and the US, the manufacturing industries in these countries declined rapidly. Although the UK and the US still have strong basic research, their economies are too heavily influenced by capital, resulting in large-scale relocation of manufacturing industries. 尤其是英国，几乎放弃了制造业。对资本来说，因为国内工人的工资水平提高，制造业外迁便是为了减少成本，增加利润。与此同时，英美金融业崛起，主宰世界。金融主导导致了实体经济的金融化，金融经济的虚拟化，不断制造着泡沫，最终造就了2008年全球金融危机。不过，这里应当强调的是，金融业和风投需要区分开来，尽管风投也属于金融服务。二战以来，风投在美中国制造业发展过程了发挥了巨大的作用，美国的很多产业（包括诸多领域的制造业）都是风投用金融砸出来的。今天，在风投这一领域，美国依然独领风骚。

但客观地说，The diffusion of US and Western technologies to non-Western countries after 1980 also contributed to the industrialization of local countries. 也就是说，西方一些国家（尤其是英美）的去工业化有助于一些发展中国家的工业化。

中国的制造业就是在这个过程中崛起的。至2023年，中国制造业增加值占全球比重约30%。 In the process, China has successfully transformed from so-called “insufficient production capacity (shortage economy)” to so-called “excess production capacity (surplus economy)” 人们根本不需要回避政府在这一过程中的作用。近代以来，所有经济体，政府在经济发展过程中扮演了关键作用。 The United States, which purports to be a paragon of free enterprise, has an even more pervasive role for government, especially in the form of the military-industrial complex. 今天美国的局面是新自由主义经济政策主导下产业政策的失误。而中国正是因为政府抓住了机遇，变成了制造业强国。今天的印度想复制“中国模式”，但机遇不再，或者机遇不是像从前那么多了。

就制造业而言，今天的中国是产业最齐全的经济体。尽管高端制造业依然有巨大的空间，但已经在中低端制造业占据了绝对的优势。自特朗普以来，美国政府出台了种种政策，希望促成“再工业化”。经验地看，尽管美国取得了一些成绩，但要真正实现产业回归并不容易。 In the low to middle end of manufacturing, the US has lost its comparative advantage. Comparatively, since China is still in the low to middle end of manufacturing, upgrading of the manufacturing industry is inevitable and unstoppable. 中国已经完成了从早期的技术复制到技术改进的进程，现在正在行走在从技术改进到技术创新的进程之中。随着新质生产力战略的推进，技术甚至产业的全面提升正在加速。

Hydraulic excavators await delivery in the industrial park of Shanxi Taizhong Group's intelligent high-end hydraulic excavators (Figure:(Xinhua)

05 The United States moves towards a "politically dominated economy"

回到对美国的回应，中国自然不会因为美国的压力而放弃出口。不过，中国的确需要考虑诸多影响未来的问题： How will the US and some Western countries respond? How will the responses affect economic globalization? How will China cope with the impact of the US responses?

As both history and recent experience have shown, several changes are already under way in the United States, and they are likely to make themselves felt.

第一，美国重商主义的再崛起。Governments use trade protectionist measures through government intervention. While the US has mainly targeted China,可以预见这一政策会扩大化和泛化。 耶伦在与中国官员会面时说，中国大量出口产品可能会导致新的贸易限制以保护其新兴产业。美国也可能征收额外的关税。实际上，拜登政府一直维持着特朗普时期对中中国制造品所施加的高关税。再次参加今年总统大选的特朗普也早已在叫嚷着要对中中国制造品征收更高的关税；不仅如此，特朗普也扬言要对墨西哥进口到美国的产品，只要与中国有关，都征收高关税。 An America pursuing neo-mercantilism will further fragment the global trading system, impacting not only China but the world.

The Reappearance of American-Style State Capitalism 国家资本主义强调的是经济的计划性和政府分配资源。这个趋势至少已经出现在美国的芯片产业。就在耶伦在和中国会谈的同时，拜登政府就宣布将向最先进微芯片的主要生产商台积电提供高达66亿美元的资助，努力将一些最前沿的半导体技术引入美国。实际上，美国政府一直在向半导体企业提供数十亿美元的资助，以减少在关键微芯片方面对中国的依赖。就连美国的政策研究界和媒体都承认，美国政府的产业补助犹如“计划经济”，完全由白宫说了算，而无需从经济逻辑上作任何论证。

Third, to reduce government regulation and "make American companies strong and powerful" to increase the international competitiveness of American companies (i.e., relative to Chinese companies). 就人工智能领域而言，美国业界和政治人物在一起呼吁政府干预的力度，即政府需要放宽限制来获取美国在这一领域相对于中国的竞争能力。实际上，在人工智能领域，尽管美国各方包括业者一直在呼吁政府加强监管，但迄今美国并无联邦层面的监管体系，所有的只是一些总统的行政命令。 Compared with the rest of the world, the US is the least regulated economy in the AI space 业界和政治人物类似的呼吁仅仅是针对中国而言的，也就是说，为了和中国竞争，美国正在向“政治主导”方向行进。

In 2022, U.S. President Biden signed the chip bill at the White House (Source: reuters）

06 Without production capacity, you cannot change the world

Clearly, China needs to have resolve and respond rationally.

如前所述，This is merely the "overcapacity" narrative crafted by the United States and some Western countries to manufacture China 中国加入世界贸易组织，一些国家就声称中国经济威胁论，认为中国会抢走他们的饭碗。但这个恐惧马上烟消云散了。中国的工业化承接了来自西方和亚洲很多国家的中低端制造业，促成了这些国家经济的转型；同时，在很多年里，中国对世界经济的贡献达到50%左右。同样，西方对“一带一路”倡议的污蔑在当地国家也成为过去。在倡议实施的10多年里， Various pitfalls about "the Belt and Road" mentioned by the West have not happened. Instead, the initiative has achieved a lot, such as the high-speed railway in Indonesia, railway in Laos, industrial park in Africa, and only local people are entitled to evaluate them. 只不过很可惜了，对中国学界而言，并没有总结好“一带一路”的经验。迄今，即使在中国学者群体中，对“一带一路”的评价呈现两个极端，一个极端是过度政治化的解读，另一个极端是过度西方经济学的解释。

China should not shy away from the impacts of its exports on some developing nations either. 尽管美国和西方一些国家的不仅西方“反击”中国而且也包括巴西、印度、墨西哥等新兴经济体加入反击行列的说法夸大其词，但无论从理论上还是实践层面来看，因为中国在一些产业所具有的比较优势，中国的出口对这些经济体也的确会产生影响和压力，至少对这些国家的一些产业。