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世 上有许 多奇诡玄妙的怪现象，战略领域也是这样。譬如目前的中东地区，美国一直想从这个地方脱身走人，而地区内相关阿拉伯国家和广大民众又强烈要求把美国赶出去。一方本就想走开溜，另一方又很想端茶送客，表面上看彼此应该一拍即合才是，可为什么现如今却僵持在那里了呢？

Because the strategic intentions of hegemony conflict gravely with the aspirations of the people in the Middle East.

The hegemonic power would like to leave with a victory rather than a defeat

As we all know, the world strategy of hegemony at the current stage is to mobilize global resources and transfer to the Indo-Pacific region, and to concentrate our efforts on dealing with China, the number one strategic rival. According to their wishful thinking, the Middle East, while important, should belong to a place that has been settled and settled. In the eyes of the United States and the West (or on the surface), the place was settled before the Israeli-Palestinian war. Specifically, Israel has reconciled with Egypt and is about to achieve reconciliation with other Middle Eastern powers; Palestinian Fatah has to a considerable extent become the puppet of the Western Group of the United States, while the resistance movement Hamas has been suppressed in all directions; the Islamic Resistance Organization in Iraq is in hiding, the Bashar regime in Syria is still alive, and Iran is unprecedentedly isolated. Israel already has the absolute advantage of clamoring to attack Iran without scruples, while the United States successfully controls the trends and choices of countries in the Middle East and can manipulate them as chess pieces as they like. ... In such a situation, the United States is of course free to leave the Middle East to Israel. In this way, hegemony can of course "magnificently turn around" and make a big strategic shift.
But for hegemony, what is quite sad is that all this is an illusion. The real situation is that the Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia have achieved extensive reconciliation with Iran, the anger of the oppressed people represented by Palestine against the hegemonic group has risen unprecedentedly, and various anti-hegemony and anti-Israel resistance organizations represented by Hamas have accumulated strength in the harsh environment and developed unprecedentedly. The Syria Bashar regime has stood firm. Under the leadership of Erdogan, Turkey has increasingly distanced itself from the West. Showing an obvious centrifugal tendency... Various factors that are not conducive to the hegemonic group have been superimposed and accumulated, taking the current New Palestinian-Israeli War as an opportunity, they gathered together and erupted together, drowning the United States and Israel in fierce flames almost instantly, making them reduced to a very isolated minority.
Now, the hegemonic group led by the United States is even more deeply involved in the quagmire of the Middle East. The expansion and sustained development of various formal and irregular war conflicts have left them in a rather passive and disadvantaged position strategically. Under such circumstances, if the military strategy continues to escape according to the established plan, it will turn into a shameful defeat and leave the Middle East with unprecedented failure.
However, for hegemony, failing to escape in the Middle East is strategically embarrassing. It is not like Afghanistan where you can run away in disgrace and have no major implications for the overall situation. On the contrary, the current situation in the Middle East forces hegemony to invest more power to support it. Otherwise, it will not be just Israel that will suffer failure, but the overall strategic failure of the entire Western bloc. Once it loses control and control of the Middle East region, the United States 'global hegemony will collapse critically on a large scale, and the chain reaction it will trigger is even more incalculable. This is simply something that hegemony will embarrass.
Therefore, it is not that the hegemonic groups are unaware of the passivity caused by being mired in the Middle East, nor is it that they do not understand the urgent need to concentrate resources and strength in the Asia-Pacific, but that they cannot afford another major defeat in the Middle East. The top priority is to go all out to avoid such failure, and attempt to withdraw after saving the situation, in order to achieve the goal of "gorgeous turn around".

The people of the Middle East must drive out the hegemonic powers and their proxies after defeating them.

The most fundamental factor behind the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East is not that terrorist organizations have the ability to turn paper into troops or beans into soldiers. The various acts of violence against hegemonic powers and Israel have escalated and intensified because the people here are subjected to real strategic oppression. As the saying goes, "where there is oppression, there is resistance." Under unprecedentedly onerous strategic oppression, they have had no choice but to resort to every means of resistance at their disposal to fight the hegemonic bloc, even at the cost of their lives. Some extremists have even used their bodies as bombs. This is not a manifestation of wanton cruelty. Even ants cherish their lives, and humans are no exception. But "there are things people detest more than death itself." Hamas's heroic struggle has made this clear. To be more precise, almost every member of the Middle Eastern populace has the potential to become a member of Hamas. Consequently, regardless of the ultimate outcome of the fighting in Gaza, Hamas-style warfare and resistance will continue to erupt and spread throughout the Middle East. The aspirations of the Middle Eastern people are clear: they do not want to merely expel the hegemonic bloc or engage in low-level nonviolent civil disobedience. Instead, they will rise up in armed resistance to win a glorious victory and drive out the hegemonic powers and their proxies after defeating and burying them.
Of course, as seen in the daily propaganda of the media and public opinion, people are often bewitched by the official ties between hegemony and countries in the Middle East, and it seems that the hegemonic group has many allies and friends in this region. Frankly speaking, objectively, there is such a superficial phenomenon that the ruling authorities of many Middle Eastern countries seem to follow the lead of hegemony, the more feudal autocratic royal countries, the more so. The reason is that these royal regimes can only rely on imperialism and rely on the support of American forces to maintain their power. As reactionary ruling groups, they can only regard the United States and the West as an retreat and a safe haven for personal property, which is a universal law. Because of this, they are often keen to deal with hegemony, engage in blending, and maintain a cooperative relationship. However, the broad masses of people in the Middle East are very different. Out of religious belief, cultural value, national emotion and strategic reality, the people here have an unprecedented strong demand for anti-American and anti-hegemony, which constitutes the deepest foundation of the struggle against hegemony in the Middle East. It should be noted that the hegemonic group is not faced with a small number of people in power in the Middle East, but more than one billion Muslim people.In terms of strategic logic, this is an invincible force. Therefore, fundamentally speaking, there is no way out and no future for hegemony. This also indicates that the struggle between the hegemonic group and the broad masses of people in the Middle East will become more intense for some time to come.

Victory will ultimately belong to the people of the Middle East

几十年来，中东人民的反霸斗争可谓屡战屡败，尤其首当其冲的巴勒斯坦，更被搞得四分五裂、疆土日蹙，生存空间与发展环境日益恶劣。这样的状况使得许多旁观者失去信心，对中东地区的反霸斗争前景不看好。过去美国所发动的侵略伊拉克的战争被一些人吹得神乎其神，更加剧了像中国这样一些国家里崇美、恐美、媚美的社会生态。
不能否认，中东地区四分五裂、各自为战的反霸斗争确实存在诸多严重的不足，譬如阿拉伯、波斯、土耳其等几大民族勾心斗角，互相之间不是补台而是互相拆台；伊斯兰世界内部的教派之争也发展到拼死拼活的程度，这些都是相当不利的因素。霸权集团就是在操纵利用并放大这些因素来加强他们的统治。这些不利的东西需要在漫长的历史长河中加以克服。但 尽管有上述这些不利，在霸 权集团同中东人民 的对抗中，霸权仍然不可能赢得战略上的胜利。 原因在于：
First, the hegemonic group cannot afford to delay the protracted war of resistance 。中东人民抵抗组织所掀起的反抗运动并不是要同霸权集团打阵地战、正规战，而是持久的战略游击战、运动战，他们要在这样的持久战争中敖干耗尽对手的资源与能力。在这样的作战模式下，霸权集团的军事力量可以占领他们所要占领的一切地方，可以打赢一场接一场的战斗，可以随心所欲搞空袭暗杀，但却始终不能赢得战略上的胜利，而是“击之如搏影”，更找不到彻底打败对手的办法与途径。中东人民的武装反抗如同地下的岩浆一般，在广大的地区此起彼伏、喷涌崩腾。此次巴以战争中胡塞武装登上舞台，就是一个很好的案例，未来必将还有更多这样组织连续登场同霸权集团展开无尽无休的战略车轮战。
The trick of splitting and dividing the Islamic country will eventually fail. 。拉一部分打一部分，打拉结合，在分化分裂对手中加强自身的地位，这是古往今来一切霸主所惯用的伎俩，帝国主义和霸权主义者在中东搞这套把戏可谓由来已久。应该说，这样的伎俩既管用也不管用，发展到现在已经明显地失灵失效。在百年未有之大变局的催化下，中东人民已经深刻认识到团结一致的重要性，沙特等国家纷纷与伊朗等实现和解就是很好的例证。现如今的情形是，通过此次巴以战争，霸权集团在道德与道义上遭遇空前的失败，在战略上变得更加孤立。他们进一步分裂分化伊斯兰国家的图谋没有得逞，相反因为深陷泥潭，自己阵营内部的矛盾倒因之凸显了起来，以至于跟在美国后面在中东地区火中取栗的只有英国等少数西方走狗，而以色列则出于自己的野心与利益诉求，力图把霸权死死地绑架在中东战车上不得下来。照此趋势发展下去，霸权集团必有树倒猢狲散、爹死娘嫁人各奔东西、分道扬镳的那一天。
form a strong containment against countries such as Iran 。从理论逻辑来讲，霸权在中东的对手并非是那些民间抵抗组织，真正战略级的敌人是伊朗，扳倒伊朗才能消除霸权在中东的心腹大患。但霸权集团几十年为此费尽心机，结果却是伊朗更加壮大强悍，这给霸权带来巨大的挑战，使之寝食难安 （有关这个问题，参阅笔者2009年文章《当波斯长剑展现锋芒的时候——谈伊朗发展壮大意义及战略影响》） 。因此，霸权集团非但不敢轻易脱身中东，现在甚至都有点不敢放手大打了，他们不得不留下相当一部分资源与力量以时刻提防伊朗这个地区力量核心与反霸轴心。伊朗事实上对霸权形成强有力的战略牵制，无论在全球战略大棋盘还是在中东这个地区小棋盘上都一概是这样。 这也是伊朗始终都遭致一些亲美中国人强烈诟骂的原因。特别是4月 13日晚， 为反击月初 以色列导弹突袭伊朗驻叙利亚大使馆， 伊朗突然直接对以色列本土实施报复性打击 ，并 向美国发出警告，若美干预以色列与伊朗之间的纷争，驻扎在中东地区的美军将遭受打击。如此态势发展，正说明伊朗已经看破红尘，敢于把霸权玩于股掌。
让霸权闹心的类似迹象，还出现在土耳其身上。尽管土耳其当权者埃尔多安反复不定、左右投机，但作为原来的盟国与支柱性力量，如今的土耳其发生这样的摇摆与松动，也不是什么好兆头，变成第二个伊朗的可能性不可低估。
Fourthly, the support of the peoples of the world cannot be ignored 。巴勒斯坦人民并不孤立，得到了世界各地与各国人民的广泛支持帮助，这使得他们的外援源源不断。事实上，全球各地一切理性与客观的旁观者都充分认识到，中东人民的反抗斗争是对世界人民的支援，也是对全球和平的贡献，因而支持他们就是支持自己。因此，霸权集团想掐断巴勒斯坦以及中东各类抵抗组织的外援渠道，完全是徒劳之举白废功夫。现在，胡塞武装等组织出人意外地掌握大量实用有效现代化武器的事实也雄辩地证明了这一点。
因此，霸权集团想在中东赢得胜利，然后来一个“华丽转身”，全力以赴奔赴新的战场，这样的如意算盘必遭破产。实际的情况是，霸权在中东愈陷愈深，目前处于进退不得的难堪境地，已经失去对局面的掌控与操纵能力，并且还完全不知道未来出路何在。更重要的是，基于各资本势力与集团的不同利益诉求，霸权帝国的统治阶层在中东战略上发生严重的内部分歧与争议，内部狗咬狗的角斗相当严重。犹太资本集团从其本位与本能出发，坚决要将霸权牢牢绑架在中东战车上，由此导致其执政当局在相当程度上已经失去战略突破与创新的能力。按照目前的态势发展下去，中东这个风起云涌的地区注定将成为霸权的难脱泥潭与历史坟场。在此难逃失败的命运，必将成为霸权全面颠覆崩溃的一部分，这样的日子已经不远了。
（作者系昆仑策研究院高级研究员；