The following article comes from Dynamic Reference, and the author is Feng Liuhen

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At a sensitive moment of tense confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, following Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin's "iron" security commitments to the Philippines, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Aquilino raved at a congressional hearing:If a Philippine sailor or soldier dies, the Philippines can invoke the U.S. -Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. With these repeated calls for war, does the US military really want to fight China in the South China Sea?
At present, the situation in the South China Sea remains tense. On the one hand, the Philippine side's provocations and insults continue to escalate. Little Max also clamored for "never flinch" and claimed to be planning major actions. On the other hand, the United States is also constantly escalating its anger, and even repeatedly issuing provocative "war cries."
First, Commerce Minister Raimondo led a delegation of 22 business and strategic industry representatives to visit the Philippines. Claiming that the United States will help the Philippines double the number of semiconductor factories to avoid "over-concentration" of the global chip supply chain. Announced that U.S. companies will invest more than US$1 billion in the Philippines.
Obviously, this is an important part of the trilogy of the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy of "investment alliance confrontation", which is to want Lafite to form an alliance to confront China and relieve the Philippines 'worries in the economic and trade field.
This was followed by Secretary of State Blinken's surprise visit to the Philippines. Blinken emphasized that the United States has an "iron" commitment to the security of the Philippines and its "iron" commitment to South China Sea affairs, and once again made it clear that the US-Philippines Joint Defense Treaty applies to the Sino-Philippines dispute over the South China Sea.
The ironclad commitment that South China Sea affairs apply to the US-Philippines Joint Defense Treaty was a commitment publicly made by U.S. Defense Secretary Austin at the Asian Security Conference in the first half of last year. That is, when the Philippines intensified its provocations and troubles in South China.
Such intensive war clamor is already very arrogant, and the latest statement of the commander of the United States, India and the Pacific is even more arrogant.
The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported on March 28 that seven Philippine Navy personnel were injured by Chinese water cannon attacks. Aquilino used this to hype up China's legitimate rights protection behavior, claiming that China's actions were "worried" and could also lead to "bad results." When he attended a hearing before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee last week, John Aquilino not only declared that China "has become increasingly aggressive and bold," but also claimed that if a Philippine sailor or soldier died, the Philippines could invoke the U.S. -Philippines Common Defense Treaty.
Aquilino is the Indo-Pacific commander, and South China Sea affairs seem to be his area of responsibility. What Aquilino could say was,"If a Filipino sailor or soldier dies, the Philippines can invoke the U.S. -Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty."
It's not a question of who fires the first shot. You know, the Philippines frequently polish guns in the South China Sea, and we will inevitably carry out strong countermeasures. According to the Philippines, seven people have been injured in our water cannon attacks a few days ago. In other words, frequent friction may lead to accidental death.
According to Aquilino, this triggered the "U.S. -Philippines Joint Defense Treaty", and the U.S. military was obliged to stand up for the Philippines and directly go to war with China in the South China Sea. From this point of view, the risk of a Sino-US war has really increased significantly.
The Americans are full of big talk. By then, they will really have to fight China for the Philippines. If they don't fight, where will the Americans 'face be?
Again, I really can't believe that the US military fought China in the South China Sea for the Philippines.
At present, our Navy Coast Guard is on full alert in the South China Sea. If the U.S. military wants to participate in the war, it can only send troops in advance. However, the form of confrontation in the South China Sea will change, and it will become a Sino-US military confrontation.
In the war with China in the South China Sea, it was useless for the United States to send many aviation strike groups. This space is too small and is completely within the coverage of our army's sea, land and air firepower.
This means that if the United States is really willing to fight China, it will not just be in the South China Sea. The entire Western Pacific line, including the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea, Japan and South Korea, will become a battlefield.
Only in this way can the role of U.S. overseas bases be brought into play and the long-range strike role of aircraft carriers can be better brought into play. This is also one of the highlights of the US military's distributed combat concept. Only in this way can we try to avoid being wiped out by our army's anti-access areas by fire. This is really unbelievable.
So, what is the reason for the United States to make a statement like a real one? An interesting detail is that the US military suddenly and unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the construction project of the Bataan Islands military base in the Philippines. This should be one of the four new bases negotiated by the United States and the Philippines. I wonder if the construction of other bases has started?
If it is really an iron promise, it should be time to send troops or increase troops to the Philippines and strengthen the construction of U.S. military bases in the Philippines. Because according to Aquili, it is uncertain that China and the United States will go to war in the South China Sea one day.
While emphasizing his firm commitment, he suddenly unilaterally announced his withdrawal from the construction of the new base, which may confuse Ma.
However, no matter what, the United States 'promise is true. The Philippines also clamored that it would never back down, that is, it would fight China to the end in the South China Sea. Once the gun misses and goes off, or Ma wants to be second in Faransky.
If the United States does not fight, it will be too embarrassing. What should its allies think? How should the world see it?
If you look at it this way, making a firm commitment while withdrawing from the construction of the new base is tantamount to implying that the United States is "talking but doing".
In fact, it is impossible for the United States to fight China at this time. The Ukraine War and the Israel-Kazakhstan War have given the United States enough headaches. If China is provoked again, the United States will be unable to handle it, especially since Europe has clearly pointed out that it will not engage in camp confrontation.
The United States just hopes that the Philippines will continue to harass China, disrupt the situation in the South China Sea, and even want to lure China to fire the first shot, so that it can realize the China threat theory.
First, we hope that the South China Sea issue will be internationalized. In order to isolate the attack and undermine the overall situation of China's foreign cooperation.
The second is to undermine the negotiations between China and ASEAN on the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea", which is actually to drive a wedge between China and ASEAN. What is important is that once the negotiations between China and ASEAN on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea are completed, the United States '"free navigation" in the South China Sea will completely lose its meaning.
In addition, the reason why the United States makes such a real commitment is that it is afraid that the Philippines will not be able to withstand the pressure to stop provocations and turn to engage in friendly cooperation with China. In this way, the United States 'Indo-Pacific strategy will no longer find a fulcrum in the South China Sea.
It is impossible for the United States to fight China for the Philippines. This is not in the interests of the Americans. The current fire is aimed at undermining the overall stability of the region. It is best to internationalize South China Sea affairs. In this way, it will sow discord between China and relevant countries and organizations. The important thing is to prevent the negotiation process of the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea between China and ASEAN. The Philippines is a pawn and cannon fodder.
So does this mean that China can only let the Philippines do so? Not really. In the South China Sea, there is a bottom-line thinking, and try to refrain from fighting; if you cannot restrain yourself, it will only be a killer.
If there is really a war between China and the Philippines, it will not be a problem with Renai Reef on Huangyan Island, but will definitely take back all the islands and reefs that have been illegally occupied in the past.
China really has to make up its mind to destroy the Philippines. I believe that more countries will be willing to strengthen cooperation with China, and the world will recognize this.

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