国家发展改革委发布消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制， Starting from 24:00 on April 1, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 200 yuan and 190 yuan per ton respectively.

本轮是2024年第七次调价，也是第四次上调。调价后，年内成品油调价将呈现“四涨一跌两搁浅”的格局。折合成升价，92#汽油每升上调0.15元，0#柴油每升上调0.16元。 Calculated for an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will cost about 7.5 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil.

Monitoring by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission shows that international oil prices rose during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (March 18-March 31). On average, London Brent and New York WTI oil prices rose 3.95% compared with the previous round of price adjustment cycles.

During the price adjustment cycle, geopolitical conflicts intensified,"OPEC +" continued its voluntary production reduction measures, and market concerns about reduced crude oil supply gave support to oil prices. The Middle East continues to be turbulent, and the risk premium of disruption to crude oil production and transportation continues to rise. Ukraine has continued to attack Russian refineries and other energy infrastructure. ANZ and other institutions predict that 7%-10% of Russia's refined oil production capacity will be damaged. Iraq plans to reduce crude oil exports, and Russia requires domestic oil companies to cut crude oil production to 9 million barrels per day in the second quarter."OPEC +" members have fulfilled their commitments and strengthened their supporting role in reducing production and stabilizing prices. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and others raised their oil price forecasts, speculative funds were bullish on oil prices, and net long positions in crude oil futures and options on the Intercontinental Exchange increased to highs since the end of 2019. Compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, London Brent and New York WTI oil prices rose by 4.05% and 3.84% respectively during this cycle.

国家发展改革委价格监测中心预计，In the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and operate strongly, but it is unlikely that they will continue to rise sharply. 一方面受地缘政治因素和“欧佩克+”减产影响，原油供应短期内偏紧；需求端因天气转暖带动开工出行消费增长。但另一方面，持续上涨的油价对遏制通胀产生不利影响，一旦通胀指标明显回升，可能迟滞发达经济体货币政策调整时机及节奏，从而抑制经济复苏和需求回暖。