**访清华大学中国发展规划研究院院长助理 李治 ** 未来产业由前沿技术驱动，能够催生新业态、新模式、新产业、新动能，对未来经济社会发展具有关键引领支撑作用，是发展新质生产力的主阵地。 从“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标纲要提出“前瞻谋划未来产业”，到工业和信息化部等7部门联合发布《关于推动未来产业创新发展的实施意见》围绕制造业加快发展未来产业，再到地方政府聚焦量子信息、人工智能、新能源等重点领域频频发力，中国未来产业发展“路线图”日益清晰。

firmly grasp the initiative

Li Zhi, assistant to the dean of the China Development Planning Institute of Tsinghua University, said in a recent interview with a reporter from Economics magazine that it is of great significance for China to vigorously develop future industries. From an international perspective, the current new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are advancing by leaps and bounds, and future industries are becoming the key to seizing the commanding heights of science and technology and competing for industrial dominance. Actively cultivating future industries will help effectively respond to the pressure of international scientific and technological competition and firmly grasp the initiative in future development. From a domestic perspective, China's economy has entered a critical development stage from quantitative change to qualitative change. Forward-looking layout of future industries will help solve problems such as resource bottlenecks and population employment pressure, create new advantages in industrial competition, and enhance new development momentum.

"in a narrow sense, future industries generally focus on physical production sectors dominated by sophisticated technology, including future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space, and future health; but in a broader sense, the impact of future industries should also cover finance, agriculture, culture, education and other fields to promote high-quality development of various economic and social industries." Li Zhi said, "the development of the future industry can be understood as an industrial innovation process that meets the needs of human production and life in the future, through the use of new production tools and the systematic transformation of new production factors with a new mode of production." From the perspective of the new production tools, with the blessing of artificial intelligence and big data, the existing production tools become more advanced and intelligent, with the characteristics of autonomy, refinement, digitalization and so on. For example, new network technologies such as 5GA/6G, Gigabit Optical Network / 10 Gigabit Optical Network, advanced manufacturing tools such as human industrial robots, high-precision advanced machine tools, extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, as well as basic computing equipment and digital warehousing and logistics systems of big computing power are all new production tools. From the point of view of the new mode of production, the production modes and methods such as generative artificial intelligence, machine deep learning, man-machine cooperation, visual recognition algorithm supported by convolution neural network and multimodal perception realize the breakthrough innovation of the traditional mode of production, which is helpful to greatly improve production efficiency and reduce production cost. From the perspective of new production factors, data factors have more potential, higher added value and stronger spillover effect than traditional production factors such as capital, labor, land, management and so on. Taking the mode of production management as an example, enterprises strengthen the collection and management application of big data through digital technology, and optimize and upgrade human resources, financial resources, market resources, industrial chain resources and other aspects by means of artificial intelligence. the use of data elements to improve enterprise production efficiency exponentially to meet the needs of the development of the digital era.

scientific and technological innovation is the key

Original innovation and key technological breakthroughs are the core of future industrial development. China is a latecomer and catch-up country, with prominent shortcomings in some key technology fields, especially in the field of basic research. "For example, the high-precision manufacturing machine tool equipment monopolized by Europe and the United States can achieve sub-micron or even nanometer precision. For example, extreme ultraviolet lithography technology can be used to produce chips with a multi-nanometer process. These high-end equipment and processes are supported by a large amount of basic mechanics, materials science, optics and other knowledge, and a large amount of engineering wisdom are also gathered." Li Zhi said.

Moreover, cutting-edge technologies are iteratively updated quickly, which can easily reduce the dimensions of the industrial process of countries that are catching up. "Many of the cutting-edge technologies we have seen so far have been formed through years of technological accumulation in developed countries. For example, artificial intelligence technology, which is currently popular, had a theoretical prototype in the West in the middle of the last century. Although we have mastered some cutting-edge technologies through leapfrog development, when further breakthroughs are needed, we must return to the original accumulation of technology and knowledge to find answers. At this time, the shortcomings of basic research will become prominent, and we will inevitably take some detours." Li Zhi said that although China is in a leading position in some applications of cutting-edge technologies, it has never formed systematic and innovative breakthroughs that are focused on each other. In recent years, Huawei, BYD and other leading companies have made certain industrial breakthroughs and accumulated innovative results in some cutting-edge fields. However, for the entire large industry, the number of such leading companies is far from enough, and their leading role is still very limited.

Regarding the key to realizing future industrial scientific and technological innovation, Li Zhi believes that in addition to doing a good job in basic research and consolidating the technological foundation, we must also solve the problem of ways from Basic scientific research to industrial application. Basic research is often based on interest and oriented. To further improve the conversion rate of scientific research results, we can learn from the Pasteur Quadrant scientific research model, attaching importance to both foundation and application. We must attach great importance to promoting new engineering education, focus on the actual needs of industrial applications, better approach practice, and cultivate talents in accordance with their aptitude. At the same time, the evaluation methods of engineering education and science education should be distinguished, and the number of papers and internationally recognized results should not be used as a single evaluation criterion. "In the field of national defense science and technology, many scientific researchers can effectively transform scientific research results and solve the problems faced by enterprises after going deep into enterprises. But from an academic perspective, many such results cannot be published in top international journals." Li Zhi said.

Cultivate fertile soil for future industries

未来产业尚处于产业化发展的初期萌芽阶段，发展未来产业不能单兵突击，需要各产业主体、各相关部门协同创新，共同发力。李治建议， First of all, we must give full play to the leading power of the market. 国企、民企、混合所有制企业等各种类型的企业是最重要的市场主体，在整个的产业变革过程中发挥着关键的基础作用。要积极营造尊重知识、保护知识产权的公平市场环境，让企业家愿意创新、敢于创新并且能够从创新中受益。 Secondly, we must give full play to the guiding role of policy planning. 发展规划是实现中国式现代化的重要政策工具，要充分发挥集中力量办大事的举国体制优势，通过制定产业、财税、科技、区域协调发展等一系列政策扶持未来产业发展。同时还要在加强政策一致性评估方面下功夫，形成政策落实的合力，确保未来产业发展保持在一个正确的轨道上。 Finally, we must pay attention to the participation of international forces. 虽然中国未来产业发展受到外部环境的一定制约，但仍然要持有开放合作的态度和意识，坚持全球视野、未来眼光，坚持开展国际产业合作，借鉴吸收其他国家发展的经验，降低自身的试错成本。

此外，厚植未来产业沃土是一个需要长期探索创新的过程。李治认为，在这一过程中，还有几点值得关注。The first is to update basic education methods. 人工智能和脑机接口等前沿科技的发展，使得未来单纯依靠积累知识的学习方式受到挑战。机器学习比人类学习的效率更高，而且正在不断出现“涌现”和“顿悟”现象，但人类的想象力和情感领悟力始终要超过机器人。未来产业的发展必然进入人机协同的新时代，需要培养更多具备想象力和创新精神的复合型人才。 The second is to coordinate and give full play to the enabling role of technology. 未来产业以高科技投入、高知识含量为特点，要重视协同发挥企业研究院、高校科研院所、社会智库等多层次、多领域科研机构的支撑作用。The third is to strengthen capital support. 未来产业孵化培育周期长、风险高，需要来自社会资本和政府等各方面的长期稳定投资和金融支持，要鼓励企业更多投资基础教育事业，储备优秀人才。 **四是促进信息共享，**特别是推动公共数据资源的合理有序开放，进一步探索个人数据、企业数据和政务数据的合理合法使用。Fifth, form a social consensus, 重视发挥新媒体等各类型媒体的舆论引导作用，营造培育未来产业的良好社会风气和创新环境。

Reporter/Ma Ming