Merz Heads to London E3 Summit as Bundeswehr Readiness Strains

The hundred-day mark of the US-Israeli war on Iran found Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a crossroads of his own making. On February 28, the day US and Israeli forces struck Iran and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Merz declined to describe the strikes as a violation of international law -- a phrase no member of his government has since used. He called Iran a 'terrorist regime' and said the US and Israel had 'good reasons.' Political scientist Johannes Varwick of Martin Luther University Halle praised that early restraint at the time, calling it 'measured.' By late April, however, Merz had executed a public about-face. He declared the US had 'acted rashly' and that Germany 'cannot and will not' join the military campaign. Varwick then praised the reversal as 'statesmanlike.' The shift reflected German public opinion: an ARD poll published in April showed 58 percent of Germans oppose Germany providing any military support to the US-Israeli war effort. But it came at a cost. Germany's plans to deploy Tomahawk missiles to its military contingent in the region were cancelled under US pressure. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting Ankara, described Turkey as 'the most important NATO ally' in the current situation -- a formulation German foreign policy analysts at the DGAP read as a deliberate signal to Berlin. Guntram Hoff of the DGAP noted that Germany retains 5,000 troops stationed at US bases in the Middle East and Europe whose operational status is now subject to American discretion. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, speaking with more caution than Merz, said Germany must 'carefully consider all implications' of its position. Only 15 percent of Germans currently express confidence in their government's handling of foreign policy decisions, according to the same ARD polling.

Bundeswehr readiness problems surfaced on June 5 when WDR, NDR and Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported the contents of an internal situation report from Heeresinstandsetzungslogistik GmbH (HIL), a wholly owned subsidiary of the defense ministry responsible for maintaining army vehicles and ground equipment. The report, seen by the consortium of broadcasters, showed that many Bundeswehr vehicles and weapons systems are not operational due to missing spare parts. A defense ministry spokesman in Berlin acknowledged the report's findings in general terms, saying there are areas 'with challenges' while asserting that 'the operational readiness of major weapons systems is moving in the right direction' and that NATO commitments are not at risk. The spokesman attributed the difficulties to two converging pressures: weapons deliveries to Ukraine, which have drawn down German materiel reserves, and a significantly increased number of military exercises since 2024, which have accelerated wear on vehicles and equipment. The HIL report came on the same day as the Ukrainian GUR's confirmation that Russia has more than doubled RM-48U ballistic missile production -- a reminder that the gap in German readiness has direct implications beyond Germany's own territory.

Germany's Foreign Office on Friday, June 5 issued travel advisories strongly discouraging travel to Bahrain and Kuwait, citing the 'highly volatile' regional security situation. The advisory noted that 'since the announcement of the ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran on April 8, 2026, there have been repeated isolated attacks on military and civilian targets in the region, which cannot be ruled out in the future.' On the same day Iranian missiles struck Kuwait's international airport, killing one Indian national, confirming the Foreign Office's framing. For Germans travelling in or transiting the Gulf region, the advisories carry particular weight given that German airlines maintain routes through both countries. Against this backdrop, Chancellor Merz will travel to London on June 7 for the E3 summit -- the France-Germany-UK trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy that Merz helped architect during the coordination process since June 4. The summit, starting at 18:30 London time with Zelenskyy joining an hour later, represents Germany's primary vehicle for reshaping its standing in the Western coalition at a moment when its relationship with Washington is under strain.