German climate council says 2025 emissions fell on a weak economy, not policy, and warns the 2045 net-zero target is out of reach
Germany's independent Council of Experts on Climate Change said the country's industry and energy emissions fell in 2025 but credited a stagnant economy rather than climate policy, and warned that current measures will not deliver the 2045 net-zero goal. Chairwoman Barbara Schlomann said transport and buildings remain far off track and that natural carbon sinks -- forests, bogs and grasslands -- are turning into net emitters, while even the government's March climate package, forced by a court ruling, would fall short. Environment Minister Carsten Schneider said he took the findings seriously and would give priority to renewables and to reforming EU emissions trading.
Germany's Council of Experts on Climate Change, an independent scientific body that advises the government, said the country had both met and missed its 2025 climate goals. Industry and energy emitted less carbon than expected last year, but the council said the drop was explained largely by a stagnant economy rather than by policy or the growth of renewables. "The measures taken to date have clearly failed" to put Germany on course for net greenhouse-gas neutrality by 2045 and net-negative emissions from 2050, said the council's chairwoman, Barbara Schlomann.
The transport and building sectors are particularly far behind their targets, the council found, and a more worrying structural shift is under way: ecosystems that normally store carbon -- forests, moors, grasslands and farmland -- have themselves become greenhouse-gas emitters, for instance when drained bogs release stored CO2. If nothing is done, the report warned, these natural sinks will keep turning into drivers of warming through 2050, reversing a trend the government had pledged to halt. Germany's forests showed some recovery, the one clear bright spot.
The assessment is a verdict on the climate package that lawmakers presented in March after a court forced the government to strengthen its efforts -- a program to accelerate wind power, support biofuels, promote electric vehicles and local transport, and push industry from natural gas to electricity. Even if those savings were achieved in full, the council said, Germany would still miss its targets: "there is still no concrete route to actually achieve these savings." Council member Julia Pongratz said steps such as strengthening the circular economy, electrifying industry and encouraging sustainable diets were moving in the right direction but were far from sufficient, and urged decision-makers to spread the societal costs more fairly.
Environment Minister Carsten Schneider said he took the warning seriously and would review it thoroughly while pressing ahead with the new climate plan, especially on EVs. "The most important response to the experts' warning must now be to give full priority to renewable energies," he said, adding that "a second key lever consists of reforming EU emissions trading." The council is now checking whether the government's measures comply with Germany's climate protection act. The warning lands the same week that Economy Minister Katherina Reiche drew criticism for shifting energy policy back toward gas and trimming support for renewables.