Iran war pushes Gulf monarchies to diversify away from Washington as Sunni-axis talk grows
The US-Israeli war on Iran is driving the Gulf oil monarchies to diversify their strategic partnerships, weighing closer ties with regional middle powers and China while their trust in the United States as security guarantor weakens. Saudi Arabia is working more closely with Pakistan, Qatar is leaning on Turkey as a bridge to Europe, and Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa has visited the Gulf to position himself as a partner against Iran.
The US-Israeli war on Iran is reshaping Arab-world alignments, with the Gulf monarchies repositioning strategically as Iranian missile attacks have shown they are not immune to regional conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hit Gulf trade routes and infrastructure and, by extension, the economic-diversification programmes that the monarchies hope will free them from oil and gas dependence.
Trust in Washington as a security guarantor has eroded. Gulf capitals report low expectations of US negotiations with Tehran and worry that President Donald Trump may grant Iran heavy concessions to extricate himself from the war and then turn his back on the region. The 'axis of resistance' anchored on Iran has been militarily weakened, but Arab governments are bracing for a more aggressive Iran that has discovered in the Hormuz closure — alongside its drones and missiles — an effective coercive tool. At the same time, unease over what one analysis termed Israel's 'aggressive and hegemonic' conduct is rising in Arab capitals.
The result is growing reluctance to align openly with a US-Israeli camp. Gulf rulers are stepping up moves to diversify strategic relationships and preserve their own strategic relevance, including projects to build new trade and export routes that bypass Hormuz and to localise more arms production.
Regional realignments have already begun. Saudi Arabia is working more closely with Pakistan. Qatar is leaning on Turkey as a bridge to Europe. Syria's leader Ahmed al-Sharaa travelled to the Gulf to pitch Damascus as a partner; with borders to Turkey and Mediterranean access, Syria offers the wealthy monarchies an ally on excluding Iranian influence — a goal Damascus shares.
China stands to gain even though it does not present itself as an anti-Iran partner; Russia, which has backed Iran during the war, has lost political capital in Arab capitals. A Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung analysis this week described the emerging configuration as a possible new Sunni axis stretching from Cairo and Damascus through Riyadh and Doha to Ankara — countries equally sceptical of Tehran and of the Netanyahu government.
The stakes are high. The Gulf monarchies — authoritarian but wealthy and secure — have functioned as the Arab world's model of stability. If their economic-diversification plans wobble under wartime pressure, the analysis warned, the broader region's prospects suffer with them.