30 April Briefing
Russia Matters analysis at Harvard's Belfer Center found Russian forces lost 67 sq km of Ukrainian territory in April after losing 31 sq km in March — the first back-to-back monthly losses in 27 months of gains. Ukrainian drones hit the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez refinery and the Perm linear production-dispatch station for a second consecutive day, disabling the AVT-4 distillation unit; April's nine refinery strikes had cut Russian throughput to 4.69 million b/d, the lowest since December 2009.
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Russia loses 67 sq km of Ukrainian territory in April -- second straight month of net losses after 27 months of gains
Russian forces lost 67 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in the month ending 28 April -- the second consecutive month of net losses after 27 months of gains -- according to Russia Matters analysis at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, drawing on Institute for the Study of War data. Russian forces gave up 31 square kilometres in March after gaining 119 square kilometres in February. The figures are net: per Ukrainian mapper DeepState, Russia advanced in 10 settlements during the same April window (some southeastern, others on the strategically important Pokrovsk-Kramatorsk and Chasiv Yar-Kramatorsk axes), while retreating from others. Independent mapper Clement Molin counted 440 successful Ukrainian drone strikes in April -- 330 mid-range strikes inside occupied Ukrainian territory and 110 long-range strikes deep inside Russia. Tochnyi.info documented at least 492 Ukrainian strikes on Russian air defences between June and early March, with the cumulative effect of "collapsing the layered defensive architecture" that Russian integrated air-defence doctrine relies on. Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan called this trend "potentially the worst year yet for Putin"; former British soldier Shaun Pinner identified Russia's costly capture of Pokrovsk in December as a turning point.
Ukraine receives mobile F-16 simulators, strikes Su-57 jets deep inside Russia
Ukraine's Air Force has received mobile F-16 flight simulators to train pilots at flexible locations, while its military says it struck several Su-57 stealth fighters and a Su-34 bomber in Russia's Chelyabinsk region, about 1,700 km from the border.
Zelenskyy rejects Russian demands to surrender Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected Russian demands to hand over the heavily fortified fortress belt in northern Donetsk province, a strategically vital area that Kyiv says would serve as a springboard for further Russian aggression.
Zelenskyy Seeks Clarification from Trump on Putin's May 9 Ceasefire Proposal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has instructed his team to contact the Trump administration to clarify details of Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposed ceasefire on May 9, while dismissing the offer as a 'theatrical performance' and reiterating Ukraine's demand for a 30-day unconditional truce.
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Every other event tracked in Ukraine, with a one-line preview.
ua41Zelensky Warns Russia May Seek Sanctions Relief in Exchange for Ceasefire
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia may attempt to secure the lifting of international sanctions, including on SWIFT access, in exchange for a ceasefire. He urged the US and Europe to maintain pressure and cautioned against a tactical ceasefire around May 9 that could shield Russia's Victory Day parade. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine supports genuine ceasefire proposals and remains in contact with US envoys.
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Zelensky Warns Russia May Seek Sanctions Relief in Exchange for Ceasefire
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia may attempt to secure the lifting of international sanctions, including on SWIFT access, in exchange for a ceasefire. He urged the US and Europe to maintain pressure and cautioned against a tactical ceasefire around May 9 that could shield Russia's Victory Day parade. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine supports genuine ceasefire proposals and remains in contact with US envoys.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia may attempt to secure the lifting of international sanctions, including on SWIFT access, in exchange for a ceasefire. He urged the US and Europe to maintain pressure and cautioned against a tactical ceasefire around May 9 that could shield Russia's Victory Day parade. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine supports genuine ceasefire proposals and remains in contact with US envoys.
ua40Putin seeks US help for temporary ceasefire to safeguard scaled-back Victory Day parade amid Ukrainian drone threat
Russia's annual Victory Day parade on May 9 will be scaled back without tanks or military equipment due to the threat of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, reflecting Russia's military limitations and inability to secure Moscow. The Russian Defence Ministry cited the 'current situation' for the decision. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas stated that the absence of heavy military equipment reflects Russia's heavy losses and failure to achieve military objectives in Ukraine, noting that Russia is losing a record number of soldiers. In a new development, Putin personally called US President Donald Trump to request a temporary ceasefire for the holiday, seeking American help to secure the parade. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy responded cautiously, indicating he would investigate the proposal but expressed little interest in a stunt solely to protect the parade, reiterating Ukraine's preference for a long-term ceasefire and lasting peace. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico plans to attend the parade, but Baltic states have refused to allow his aircraft to pass through their airspace. The scaled-back parade and Putin's request for a ceasefire highlight Russia's military limitations and inability to secure Moscow, potentially emboldening Ukraine's Western partners to act with greater resolve.
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Putin seeks US help for temporary ceasefire to safeguard scaled-back Victory Day parade amid Ukrainian drone threat
Russia's annual Victory Day parade on May 9 will be scaled back without tanks or military equipment due to the threat of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, reflecting Russia's military limitations and inability to secure Moscow. The Russian Defence Ministry cited the 'current situation' for the decision. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas stated that the absence of heavy military equipment reflects Russia's heavy losses and failure to achieve military objectives in Ukraine, noting that Russia is losing a record number of soldiers. In a new development, Putin personally called US President Donald Trump to request a temporary ceasefire for the holiday, seeking American help to secure the parade. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy responded cautiously, indicating he would investigate the proposal but expressed little interest in a stunt solely to protect the parade, reiterating Ukraine's preference for a long-term ceasefire and lasting peace. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico plans to attend the parade, but Baltic states have refused to allow his aircraft to pass through their airspace. The scaled-back parade and Putin's request for a ceasefire highlight Russia's military limitations and inability to secure Moscow, potentially emboldening Ukraine's Western partners to act with greater resolve.
Russia's annual Victory Day parade on May 9 will be scaled back without tanks or military equipment due to the threat of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, reflecting Russia's military limitations and inability to secure Moscow. The Russian Defence Ministry cited the 'current situation' for the decision. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas stated that the absence of heavy military equipment reflects Russia's heavy losses and failure to achieve military objectives in Ukraine, noting that Russia is losing a record number of soldiers. In a new development, Putin personally called US President Donald Trump to request a temporary ceasefire for the holiday, seeking American help to secure the parade. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy responded cautiously, indicating he would investigate the proposal but expressed little interest in a stunt solely to protect the parade, reiterating Ukraine's preference for a long-term ceasefire and lasting peace. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico plans to attend the parade, but Baltic states have refused to allow his aircraft to pass through their airspace. The scaled-back parade and Putin's request for a ceasefire highlight Russia's military limitations and inability to secure Moscow, potentially emboldening Ukraine's Western partners to act with greater resolve.
ua39Ukrainian strikes in April push Russian refinery output to lowest since December 2009
Background: Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil infrastructure to reduce war funding, previously reporting declines in oil exports through key ports. Today: In April 2026, Ukraine conducted at least nine strikes on Russian refineries, reducing average refinery throughput to 4.69 million barrels per day, the lowest since December 2009, according to Bloomberg and OilX. The strikes hit facilities in Tuapse, Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Novorossiysk, Ufa, Saratov, and Krasnodar Krai. Russia temporarily increased seaborne crude exports in April, but this may be short-lived if port attacks resume. The attacks are part of Ukraine's broader effort to cut Russia's oil export revenues funding the war.
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Ukrainian strikes in April push Russian refinery output to lowest since December 2009
Background: Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil infrastructure to reduce war funding, previously reporting declines in oil exports through key ports. Today: In April 2026, Ukraine conducted at least nine strikes on Russian refineries, reducing average refinery throughput to 4.69 million barrels per day, the lowest since December 2009, according to Bloomberg and OilX. The strikes hit facilities in Tuapse, Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Novorossiysk, Ufa, Saratov, and Krasnodar Krai. Russia temporarily increased seaborne crude exports in April, but this may be short-lived if port attacks resume. The attacks are part of Ukraine's broader effort to cut Russia's oil export revenues funding the war.
Background: Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil infrastructure to reduce war funding, previously reporting declines in oil exports through key ports. Today: In April 2026, Ukraine conducted at least nine strikes on Russian refineries, reducing average refinery throughput to 4.69 million barrels per day, the lowest since December 2009, according to Bloomberg and OilX. The strikes hit facilities in Tuapse, Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Novorossiysk, Ufa, Saratov, and Krasnodar Krai. Russia temporarily increased seaborne crude exports in April, but this may be short-lived if port attacks resume. The attacks are part of Ukraine's broader effort to cut Russia's oil export revenues funding the war.
ua39Ukraine intercepts 172 of 206 Russian drones in large-scale overnight attack
On the night of April 29-30, 2026, Russia launched a massive aerial assault on Ukraine, firing an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 206 drones, including Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas types, from multiple launch sites in Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses, employing aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare, and mobile fire groups, shot down or suppressed 172 drones across northern, southern, western, and eastern regions. One ballistic missile and 32 drones struck 22 locations, causing injuries to 18 people in Odesa. The attack remains ongoing with several drones still in Ukrainian airspace.
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Ukraine intercepts 172 of 206 Russian drones in large-scale overnight attack
On the night of April 29-30, 2026, Russia launched a massive aerial assault on Ukraine, firing an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 206 drones, including Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas types, from multiple launch sites in Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses, employing aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare, and mobile fire groups, shot down or suppressed 172 drones across northern, southern, western, and eastern regions. One ballistic missile and 32 drones struck 22 locations, causing injuries to 18 people in Odesa. The attack remains ongoing with several drones still in Ukrainian airspace.
On the night of April 29-30, 2026, Russia launched a massive aerial assault on Ukraine, firing an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 206 drones, including Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas types, from multiple launch sites in Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses, employing aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare, and mobile fire groups, shot down or suppressed 172 drones across northern, southern, western, and eastern regions. One ballistic missile and 32 drones struck 22 locations, causing injuries to 18 people in Odesa. The attack remains ongoing with several drones still in Ukrainian airspace.
ua38Ukraine's top general orders two-month rotation limit for front-line troops after outcry over emaciated soldiers
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has signed a decree mandating that front-line troops serve a maximum of two months in forward positions, followed by a one-month rotation window. The order follows public outrage over photos of emaciated soldiers from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who allegedly endured months without adequate food or water. The directive includes medical evaluations and provisions for timely supply of ammunition and food, but implementation faces challenges due to manpower shortages and the drone-dominated battlefield that complicates logistics. The move aims to preserve soldier lives and maintain defensive stability amid Russia's ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine.
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Ukraine's top general orders two-month rotation limit for front-line troops after outcry over emaciated soldiers
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has signed a decree mandating that front-line troops serve a maximum of two months in forward positions, followed by a one-month rotation window. The order follows public outrage over photos of emaciated soldiers from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who allegedly endured months without adequate food or water. The directive includes medical evaluations and provisions for timely supply of ammunition and food, but implementation faces challenges due to manpower shortages and the drone-dominated battlefield that complicates logistics. The move aims to preserve soldier lives and maintain defensive stability amid Russia's ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has signed a decree mandating that front-line troops serve a maximum of two months in forward positions, followed by a one-month rotation window. The order follows public outrage over photos of emaciated soldiers from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who allegedly endured months without adequate food or water. The directive includes medical evaluations and provisions for timely supply of ammunition and food, but implementation faces challenges due to manpower shortages and the drone-dominated battlefield that complicates logistics. The move aims to preserve soldier lives and maintain defensive stability amid Russia's ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine.
ua38European Parliament backs special tribunal for Russia's aggression against Ukraine
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly (446-63) on 30 April to support the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russia's leadership for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, naming senior political, military, and judicial figures—including members of the Russian State Duma and Constitutional Court—as potentially accountable. The resolution insists EU sanctions remain until a peace agreement is fully implemented and approves the International Claims Commission for Ukraine to compensate civilian victims. This tribunal, created under a Ukraine-Council of Europe agreement in June 2025, marks the first aggression tribunal since the Nuremberg trials.
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European Parliament backs special tribunal for Russia's aggression against Ukraine
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly (446-63) on 30 April to support the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russia's leadership for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, naming senior political, military, and judicial figures—including members of the Russian State Duma and Constitutional Court—as potentially accountable. The resolution insists EU sanctions remain until a peace agreement is fully implemented and approves the International Claims Commission for Ukraine to compensate civilian victims. This tribunal, created under a Ukraine-Council of Europe agreement in June 2025, marks the first aggression tribunal since the Nuremberg trials.
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly (446-63) on 30 April to support the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russia's leadership for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, naming senior political, military, and judicial figures—including members of the Russian State Duma and Constitutional Court—as potentially accountable. The resolution insists EU sanctions remain until a peace agreement is fully implemented and approves the International Claims Commission for Ukraine to compensate civilian victims. This tribunal, created under a Ukraine-Council of Europe agreement in June 2025, marks the first aggression tribunal since the Nuremberg trials.
ua37Russian overnight strikes kill one, injure dozens across Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions
Russian forces have been conducting large-scale drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure. On April 30, a Russian strike on the Dnipropetrovsk region killed one person and injured 11, damaging a shop, a residential building, and vehicles. Overnight drone attacks on the Mykolaiv region hit energy and transport infrastructure, injuring five people and causing power outages in Mykolaiv and Bashtanka districts. In Odesa, a large-scale attack struck multiple districts, damaging high-rise buildings, a kindergarten, shopping center, hotel, and administrative buildings, injuring at least 20 people including a minor. Ukraine's Air Force reported Russia launched over 200 aerial weapons overnight, including drones and a ballistic missile, with Ukrainian defenses intercepting the majority. On May 1, Russian drone strikes and shelling on civilian energy infrastructure caused new power outages in the Mykolaiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Emergency repairs are underway where security conditions permit. Ukrenergo called for energy-efficient consumption, especially during peak evening hours from 6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m., and stated there would be no scheduled power outages on May 1.
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Russian overnight strikes kill one, injure dozens across Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions
Russian forces have been conducting large-scale drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure. On April 30, a Russian strike on the Dnipropetrovsk region killed one person and injured 11, damaging a shop, a residential building, and vehicles. Overnight drone attacks on the Mykolaiv region hit energy and transport infrastructure, injuring five people and causing power outages in Mykolaiv and Bashtanka districts. In Odesa, a large-scale attack struck multiple districts, damaging high-rise buildings, a kindergarten, shopping center, hotel, and administrative buildings, injuring at least 20 people including a minor. Ukraine's Air Force reported Russia launched over 200 aerial weapons overnight, including drones and a ballistic missile, with Ukrainian defenses intercepting the majority. On May 1, Russian drone strikes and shelling on civilian energy infrastructure caused new power outages in the Mykolaiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Emergency repairs are underway where security conditions permit. Ukrenergo called for energy-efficient consumption, especially during peak evening hours from 6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m., and stated there would be no scheduled power outages on May 1.
Russian forces have been conducting large-scale drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure. On April 30, a Russian strike on the Dnipropetrovsk region killed one person and injured 11, damaging a shop, a residential building, and vehicles. Overnight drone attacks on the Mykolaiv region hit energy and transport infrastructure, injuring five people and causing power outages in Mykolaiv and Bashtanka districts. In Odesa, a large-scale attack struck multiple districts, damaging high-rise buildings, a kindergarten, shopping center, hotel, and administrative buildings, injuring at least 20 people including a minor. Ukraine's Air Force reported Russia launched over 200 aerial weapons overnight, including drones and a ballistic missile, with Ukrainian defenses intercepting the majority. On May 1, Russian drone strikes and shelling on civilian energy infrastructure caused new power outages in the Mykolaiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Emergency repairs are underway where security conditions permit. Ukrenergo called for energy-efficient consumption, especially during peak evening hours from 6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m., and stated there would be no scheduled power outages on May 1.
ua37Russian strikes on Odesa escalate, injuring 20 and damaging residential and civilian infrastructure
Background: On the night of 29-30 April, Russian drone strikes targeted Odesa, damaging residential buildings, an office, an educational institution, and a car park, injuring six people. Separately, on 29 April, Russian drone attacks in Kherson injured seven civilians, including a general practitioner and a nurse. A second wave of Russian strikes on Odesa on April 30 increased the total injured to 20, including a 17-year-old boy and a 62-year-old woman in Kharkiv region. The Primorskyi district suffered the heaviest damage, with high-rise buildings on fire, a kindergarten significantly damaged, and a shopping center, hotel, and administrative premises affected. Dozens of buses and cars were destroyed or damaged. Ukraine's Air Force reported Russia launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 206 attack drones, of which 172 were shot down or suppressed.
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Russian strikes on Odesa escalate, injuring 20 and damaging residential and civilian infrastructure
Background: On the night of 29-30 April, Russian drone strikes targeted Odesa, damaging residential buildings, an office, an educational institution, and a car park, injuring six people. Separately, on 29 April, Russian drone attacks in Kherson injured seven civilians, including a general practitioner and a nurse. A second wave of Russian strikes on Odesa on April 30 increased the total injured to 20, including a 17-year-old boy and a 62-year-old woman in Kharkiv region. The Primorskyi district suffered the heaviest damage, with high-rise buildings on fire, a kindergarten significantly damaged, and a shopping center, hotel, and administrative premises affected. Dozens of buses and cars were destroyed or damaged. Ukraine's Air Force reported Russia launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 206 attack drones, of which 172 were shot down or suppressed.
Background: On the night of 29-30 April, Russian drone strikes targeted Odesa, damaging residential buildings, an office, an educational institution, and a car park, injuring six people. Separately, on 29 April, Russian drone attacks in Kherson injured seven civilians, including a general practitioner and a nurse. A second wave of Russian strikes on Odesa on April 30 increased the total injured to 20, including a 17-year-old boy and a 62-year-old woman in Kharkiv region. The Primorskyi district suffered the heaviest damage, with high-rise buildings on fire, a kindergarten significantly damaged, and a shopping center, hotel, and administrative premises affected. Dozens of buses and cars were destroyed or damaged. Ukraine's Air Force reported Russia launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 206 attack drones, of which 172 were shot down or suppressed.
ua36KIIS survey: 57% of Ukrainians firmly oppose ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia even for security guarantees
A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey conducted in early April 2026 reveals that 57% of Ukrainians firmly oppose ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia even in exchange for security guarantees, while 36% are open to such a concession. Support for concessions drops sharply if guarantees exclude troop deployment, air defense, or free weapons supplies. 60% blame Russia for undermining peace efforts, 14% blame the US, 7% Ukraine, and 5% Europe. Compared to early March 2026, opposition decreased from 62% to 57%, and openness increased from 33% to 36%, returning to February levels. The findings indicate stable public opinion with no sharp changes since February 2026.
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KIIS survey: 57% of Ukrainians firmly oppose ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia even for security guarantees
A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey conducted in early April 2026 reveals that 57% of Ukrainians firmly oppose ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia even in exchange for security guarantees, while 36% are open to such a concession. Support for concessions drops sharply if guarantees exclude troop deployment, air defense, or free weapons supplies. 60% blame Russia for undermining peace efforts, 14% blame the US, 7% Ukraine, and 5% Europe. Compared to early March 2026, opposition decreased from 62% to 57%, and openness increased from 33% to 36%, returning to February levels. The findings indicate stable public opinion with no sharp changes since February 2026.
A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey conducted in early April 2026 reveals that 57% of Ukrainians firmly oppose ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia even in exchange for security guarantees, while 36% are open to such a concession. Support for concessions drops sharply if guarantees exclude troop deployment, air defense, or free weapons supplies. 60% blame Russia for undermining peace efforts, 14% blame the US, 7% Ukraine, and 5% Europe. Compared to early March 2026, opposition decreased from 62% to 57%, and openness increased from 33% to 36%, returning to February levels. The findings indicate stable public opinion with no sharp changes since February 2026.
ua35Zaporizhzhia NPP loses external power for 15th time; IAEA warns of nuclear safety risks
The Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost off-site power for 60 minutes on 26 April 2026, the 15th such event since the full-scale invasion. The backup line failed, triggering emergency diesel generators. A drone strike near the plant killed one person. IAEA Director Grossi visited Kyiv and signed a MoU on nuclear safety support, highlighting ongoing nuclear safety risks amid the war.
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Zaporizhzhia NPP loses external power for 15th time; IAEA warns of nuclear safety risks
The Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost off-site power for 60 minutes on 26 April 2026, the 15th such event since the full-scale invasion. The backup line failed, triggering emergency diesel generators. A drone strike near the plant killed one person. IAEA Director Grossi visited Kyiv and signed a MoU on nuclear safety support, highlighting ongoing nuclear safety risks amid the war.
The Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost off-site power for 60 minutes on 26 April 2026, the 15th such event since the full-scale invasion. The backup line failed, triggering emergency diesel generators. A drone strike near the plant killed one person. IAEA Director Grossi visited Kyiv and signed a MoU on nuclear safety support, highlighting ongoing nuclear safety risks amid the war.