Russian strikes on gas infrastructure threaten Ukraine's winter fuel supply

Russia has intensified its campaign against Ukraine's gas infrastructure, conducting over 100 attacks on gas facilities in 2026 alone, according to a report by Ekonomichna Pravda. The strikes threaten Ukraine's ability to stockpile sufficient fuel for the winter heating season, as domestic production declines and imports have nearly halted due to funding shortages.

The attacks in 2025 resulted in the temporary loss of 42% of gas production, primarily targeting booster compressor stations operated by state-owned companies Ukrgasvydobuvannya and Ukrnafta. While some damaged equipment was brought back online within a week, full restoration of certain facilities took up to a year. The current decline in gas production caused by Russian attacks ranges between 15% and 20%, according to market sources cited by Ekonomichna Pravda. "Some of the damaged facilities can be repaired relatively quickly, and current production levels are sufficient to cover domestic consumption and even inject small volumes into underground gas storage facilities. There has been a decline, but it is not critical, and facilities are gradually being brought back into operation," said a manager at one of the state-owned companies.

Ukraine had 11 billion cubic metres of gas in storage at the end of May, including 4.7 billion cubic metres of buffer gas that cannot be withdrawn. The government has set a target of accumulating 14.6 billion cubic metres by the start of the heating season, with a minimum required volume of 13.2 billion cubic metres. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said: "Ukraine faces the same threats as last year, so forecasts regarding gas reserves may still be adjusted depending on the scale of attacks and destruction."

Imports collapsed 28-fold in May to 29 million cubic metres amid rising gas prices driven by the war in the Middle East. In 2026, Ukraine imported 2.21 billion cubic metres of gas, 2.1 times more than in the same period in 2025. The largest volume came from Poland (1.03 billion cubic metres, 46.8%), followed by Hungary (779 million cubic metres, 35.3%), Slovakia (280 million cubic metres, 12.7%), and the Trans-Balkan Corridor (117 million cubic metres, 5.2%). Naftogaz plans to import a further 2-2.5 billion cubic metres of gas, according to industry sources.

Purchasing 2-2.5 billion cubic metres would cost between US$1.3 billion and US$1.5 billion at current prices of US$500-600 per thousand cubic metres. Naftogaz reported a consolidated profit of UAH 5.8 billion (approx. US$130.7 million) in 2025, six times less than in 2024. The company borrowed €1.57 billion in 2025: €770 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, €300 million from the European Investment Bank, and €500 million from state-owned banks, with PrivatBank providing the largest share at €240 million. Naftogaz also received an €85 million grant from Norway.

A government source told Ekonomichna Pravda: "My understanding is that there is simply no money. They effectively halted imports altogether back in April." An Ekonomichna Pravda source in parliament said: "The Europeans are saying quite openly: we cannot continue giving away hundreds of millions of euros for Ukraine's gas imports for a fifth consecutive year. Ukraine must address this issue itself, including through a revision of gas tariffs."

Non-residents stored 2.5 billion cubic metres of gas in Ukraine ahead of the 2023-2024 winter; these volumes have fallen to zero over the past two years, as Russia's earlier strikes on compressor stations near underground storage facilities succeeded in driving foreign traders out of the market. The government may seek emergency financing, including new loans or a recapitalisation of Naftogaz through domestic government bonds, but sources expressed concern over the slow pace of imports. "The key priority right now is to increase the volume of gas in underground storage facilities. Naftogaz's management has either decided to wait for prices to fall or opted for a strategy of importing gas on a just-in-time basis during the heating season. Such an approach creates additional risks during wartime," concluded a representative of one of the state-owned companies.