Iran retained 70 percent of its missile stockpile while the US burned through half of its Patriot stocks and 9 Gulf bases were damaged, Foreign Policy review of war costs finds
US intelligence cited by the New York Times shows Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote on May 18; the Pentagon's counterpart losses include 217 damaged structures across 15 US bases, at least 9 in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar significantly hit, half to 60 percent of Patriot defense missiles expended, a third of US Tomahawk stocks, 13 US service members killed and more than 400 injured. US gasoline is up nearly 50 percent year-on-year and diesel 59 percent, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 to 3.1 percent and Russia has doubled monthly oil revenues since the war began. Allies — from Merz in Berlin to host countries in the Gulf — are publicly questioning US reliability.
Three months into the US-Israeli war on Iran, US intelligence assessments cited by the New York Times show Tehran still holds roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz — figures Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal compiled in a May 18 essay titled "Iran Could Be Trump's Greatest Failure." Iran's air force and navy were decimated during the campaign and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, but the regime is intact under a younger and more vengeful successor, and Iran retains a stash of highly enriched uranium — the war's stated nuclear objective is unmet. The 70 percent missile-retention figure echoes a May 13 NYT-cited assessment finding Iran had kept most of its capabilities despite Trump's earlier claim of decimation.
US military losses are catalogued in tandem. A Washington Post investigation found Iran damaged 217 structures across 15 US sites in the Middle East. CNN reported that at least nine bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar were "significantly damaged" by Iranian strikes. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States expended between half and 60 percent of its Patriot defense missiles — more than Ukraine used in four years against Russia — and a third of its Tomahawk stocks; both munitions take up to four years to manufacture and replace. Thirteen US service members have died in the fighting and more than 400 have been injured.
The economic cost has hit US households directly. US gasoline prices are up by nearly half year-on-year and diesel by 59 percent, a function of Hormuz closure constricting a previously oversupplied market. The strait carries a fifth of the world's crude and natural gas, a fifth of global fertilizer, and a third of its helium; economists have already priced a global food crisis and a semiconductor squeeze into next-year forecasts. The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in April; Agrawal writes another roughly 0.33-percentage-point cut is likely, and growth could fall to 2 percent by next year if energy supplies do not normalise. The world has crossed that 2-percent threshold only four times since 1980 and seen an outright global recession only twice in that period, in 2008 and 2020.
US allies and partners are showing strain. Trump asked NATO allies to help force open and de-mine the Strait of Hormuz; when no help was forthcoming, he denied ever requesting it. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly said Washington was being "humiliated" by Iran, drawing a Trump rebuke and worsening an already fraught relationship. Qatar's economy is projected to contract 8.6 percent this year and its natural-gas output will not return to pre-war levels for years. Pakistan and the Philippines have ordered government offices to operate reduced workweeks to conserve energy; India last week asked its 1.4 billion citizens to cut fuel use and stop panic-buying gold.
Adversaries have gained. Russia has doubled its monthly oil revenues since the start of the war and is the conflict's clearest winner, Agrawal writes. China — pressed by Trump in Beijing last week to mediate a peace deal — declined to broker, with Tehran continuing what Agrawal called "a game of chicken in which their opponent has long made it clear that he wants to chicken out." The energy-price relief that has so far prevented a sharper spike has come from US strategic-petroleum-reserve drawdowns and Chinese stockpile use; any cut to US exports or a Chinese return to the spot market would push prices higher. The earlier US blockade has already redirected scores of vessels through the strait, and a May 15 incident in which 75 commercial ships were turned back underscored how thin the workaround is.