Trump's 'Project Freedom' safe-zone in Strait of Hormuz collapses after 50 hours as Iran retains 70% of missile stockpile
Donald Trump's unilateral Project Freedom — a safe-shipping zone on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz protected by more than 100 fighter jets and several naval destroyers — collapsed after 50 hours, defeated by Saudi objections, an absence of consultation with the shipping industry, and the fact that only two merchant vessels used it. Leaked CIA assessments put Iran's surviving capability at 70 percent of its missiles, 75 percent of its launchers and roughly half of its Shahed attack drones, while a leaked US intelligence estimate, published this week by the Washington Post, gives Tehran three to four months before more severe economic hardship sets in.
Trump's Project Freedom, the US president's unilateral attempt to carve out a safe zone for merchant shipping on the southern, Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, collapsed on Tuesday after roughly 50 hours in operation. The plan deployed more than 100 fighter jets and several naval destroyers, but only two merchant vessels took advantage of it before it ended.
Riyadh, which had not been consulted before the launch, refused US access to Saudi airspace and bases, concerned the operation could restart full-scale war with Iran. The plan had also not been discussed with major shipping companies and there was no consensus on whether it would have worked. Richard Meade, the editor of Lloyd's List, told the Guardian that "no major industry organisations that we are aware of have been approached by the US to set up any sort of briefing session" and that "no ship owner I have spoken to in the past 24 hours has any confidence that this changes anything."
Iran's grip on the strait remained intact. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, no merchant ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday or Thursday, while more than 1,550 vessels remained trapped in the Gulf. Trump on Thursday described that night's US strikes inside Iran as "a love tap."
CIA assessments leaked this week, on the 38th day of the war, said Iran retains 70 percent of its missiles, 75 percent of its launchers and may still hold half of its Shahed attack drones. Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said Tehran "has demonstrated resilience that many who should have known better didn't predict," adding that "Trump wanted a quick win, and was not prepared to commit the substantial military force that would have been required to dislodge the regime properly." Decision-making in Tehran appears fragmented and the health of supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly uncertain, but most assessments are that the bombing campaign has, for now, entrenched the regime.
Tehran is pushing back against the US demand for a total dismantling of its nuclear sites, a 20-year moratorium on enrichment and a handover of its near weapons-grade uranium. Iranian negotiators appear to judge that Trump is unwilling to restart a full bombing campaign, in part because high-end US missile stocks fell by between a quarter and a half during the $25 billion Epic Fury campaign.
The blockade is biting on the other side. Two US carrier strike groups are operating east of the strait, and US Central Command has turned back 52 vessels since 13 April. Inside Iran, reports describe rising inflation, unemployment and unpaid wages. On Wednesday Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused Washington of trying "to destroy the country's cohesion" through "a naval blockade, economic pressure and media manipulation." A US intelligence assessment leaked to the Washington Post this week put Iranian endurance at three to four months before more severe economic hardship.
Iran has no close allies in this moment of isolation. China is believed to be supplying drone parts on the same pattern as its help to Russia, and there are reports that Beijing may try to covertly send Tehran handheld air-defence systems. A Russian GRU presentation seen by the Economist suggests Moscow could send 5,000 fibre-optic drones — weapons useful chiefly against US ground troops should Washington seize an island in the Gulf.
"It is the insurgent's dilemma," Ozcelik said. "At first to survive is to win, but there's always a point when that is no longer enough. When Iran gets to that point, we don't know." For Trump, the political problem is the inverse: an oil-driven economic crisis of his own making that he must show is being resolved, with higher inflation already feeding through to large parts of the world economy and the impact of oil shortages particularly acute in Asia.