Hormuz Incident Revives Iran-US Tensions; SCOTUS Voids Tariffs

The Strait of Hormuz produced the day's most consequential dispute. Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency, citing a military source, said five civilians were killed when American forces struck two small cargo boats sailing from Khasab on the coast of Oman toward Iran. "Following the false claim by the US military that it had targeted 6 Iranian speedboats, since none of the IRGC combat vessels had been hit, an investigation was conducted into the nature of the claim from local sources," the source was quoted as saying, calling the strike a "hasty" move driven by US "fear" of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fast-boat operations. The commander of US Central Command said American forces had eliminated six Iranian small boats interfering with commercial shipping; two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait into the Persian Gulf after fending off an Iranian barrage of missiles, drones and small boats.

The UAE Defense Ministry said its air defences engaged 15 missiles -- 12 ballistic and three cruise -- and four drones from Iran, the first such attacks since an April 8 Tehran-Washington ceasefire, leaving three people moderately injured. The ministry added that since Iranian attacks began on Feb. 28, UAE air defences have intercepted 578 missiles and 2,260 drones in total, with 13 deaths and 227 injuries recorded. A drone launched from Iran had ignited a major fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone the previous day, an attack in which India's government noted three of its nationals were among the injured. President Donald Trump told Fox News Iran would be "blown off the face of the Earth" if it attacks US vessels operating under "Project Freedom." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there is "no military solution to a political crisis," and defence council member Ali Akbar Ahmadian warned of an "unbearable cost." The Israeli army said it was on high alert for a possible resumption of war with Iran; Israeli officials said additional US aircraft, including refuelling planes, had arrived.

Energy markets priced the disruption directly. Goldman Sachs estimated global oil stocks at 101 days of demand, near an eight-year low, with Hormuz constraints on supply; Brent crude futures fell 1.3 percent to $112.93 a barrel. France's transport minister, Philippe Tabarot, said Paris had not tapped its strategic kerosene reserves but acknowledged that fuel costs now sit at 40-45 percent of airline operating expenses. The European Commission warned member states and airlines to "prepare for all eventualities" as it remained unclear how long the jet-fuel crunch would last.

On the nuclear track, US intelligence said Iran's estimated timeline to build a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at nine months to a year, even after two months of US-Israeli war launched in part to prevent a bomb. CNN-reviewed satellite imagery indicated the Saghand Uranium Mine and possibly underground facilities near Isfahan survived the Feb. 28 strikes; while production was substantially damaged, key stockpiles and infrastructure appear intact.

Washington produced the day's other pivot, this one institutional. The US Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs, which had been imposed under a broad interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Commentators hailed the ruling as a major check on executive power, although Trump has already moved to use other authorities to keep parts of the regime in place. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) pressed Senate Republican leader John Thune for a floor vote authorising the use of military force against Iran beyond the 60-day War Powers Act window, which expired on May 1; Thune has not committed, and a senior GOP aide acknowledged divisions within the conference.

Europe was tested on the same Iran thread, but at home. Counter-terrorism police are investigating a suspected arson attack at the former East London Central Synagogue in Whitechapel, where the London Fire Brigade put out a small exterior fire reported at 05:16 BST; CCTV indicated the fire was started deliberately, and the Met has linked the incident to a wider campaign of attacks on Jewish sites in north and north-west London since late March, most of them claimed by the Iran-suspected group Hayi. Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted a Downing Street summit, warned Iran that attempts to incite antisemitism in the UK "will not be tolerated," and announced new community-security funding and anti-terror powers; the threat level remains at severe. Across the Mediterranean, Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides said the European Commission would prepare a "blueprint" for Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty after a late-April EU summit in Nicosia, with Turkiye's military presence on the divided island shaping the strategic case; Hungary, Slovakia, Ireland and Austria have signalled reservations.

Asia delivered two markers. India's Bharatiya Janata Party won West Bengal for the first time, securing 206 of 294 state assembly seats and ending 15 years of Trinamool Congress rule -- a result that strengthens Prime Minister Narendra Modi's position ahead of the 2029 general election, with TMC accusing BJP workers of post-poll arson and vandalism. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te returned to Taipei from Eswatini, Taiwan's only remaining African ally, via a long detour over the southern Indian Ocean: a trip originally set for April 22-26 was postponed after Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar denied overflight under pressure from Beijing. Lai said Taiwan has "the right to engage with the world" and "will not retreat in the face of suppression." Trump is expected in Beijing on May 14-15 for talks with President Xi Jinping, a meeting trailed as a potential reset on trade, technology and supply chains.

Ukraine added the day's other ceasefire signal. Volodymyr Zelensky declared a unilateral Ukrainian ceasefire on the night of May 5 to 6, urging Russian forces to reciprocate Moscow's May 9 Victory Day truce rhetoric. The Institute for the Study of War flagged a leaked European intelligence document highlighting Vladimir Putin's "increasing concern over his personal safety," while Russia named Colonel General Alexander Chayko commander-in-chief of its Aerospace Forces after recent air-defence failures. Ukrainian drones struck the Perm oil refinery and a chemical plant 1,500 km behind the border, disabling a key distillation unit, and the IAEA observed damage to monitoring equipment at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after a drone attack at the site.

Outside those headline arenas, the WHO said it suspects limited human-to-human hantavirus transmission aboard the MV Hondius, the Dutch-operated cruise ship anchored off Cape Verde with 147 people aboard; seven cases (two laboratory-confirmed, five suspected) and three deaths have been logged, including a German national who died on board on May 2. Spain's health ministry rejected WHO's claim that it had agreed the ship could dock at the Canary Islands, saying no decision would be taken until "the epidemiological data" was analysed.