US-Iran One-Page Memo Nears as Hormuz War Hits Aviation

The Iran war's gravitational pull dominated the day. Pakistani mediators and two US officials told Reuters and Axios that Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were "very close" to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding with Tehran that would declare an end to the war, open a 30-day window of detailed talks in Islamabad or Geneva, and contain a uranium enrichment moratorium of at least 12 years — Iran proposed five, Washington 20. After expiry Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium to 3.67 percent, would commit never to seek a nuclear weapon, and is discussing a ban on operating underground nuclear facilities and the removal of its highly enriched uranium from the country — possibly to the United States. The US would lift sanctions in stages and release billions in frozen Iranian assets. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the deal "need not be written in a day" and called some of Iran's top leaders "insane in the brain"; President Trump cited "great progress."

The same day, Iran struck CMA CGM's container ship San Antonio in the Strait of Hormuz from the Iranian mainland with a drone or cruise missile, setting the engine room ablaze and injuring several crew members despite the ship's US Navy and Air Force escort under "Project Freedom." Trump suspended Project Freedom "for a short time" to give negotiators room. French government spokesperson Maud Bregeon said France was not the target — the Maltese-flagged ship had no French sailors aboard — and President Emmanuel Macron arranged a phone call with Iran's president. Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine said Iran had attacked US forces more than ten times since the April ceasefire, fired on commercial vessels nine times, and seized two container ships; some 22,500 seafarers aboard more than 1,550 commercial ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude eased and European equities rose on the prospect of de-escalation. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected concessions, declared "no one can make us surrender," and urged the US to remove its forces from the Middle East; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a new permit regime for Hormuz transit run through a newly-named Persian Gulf Strait Authority.

The war's economic spillover reshaped global aviation. Cirium reported that airlines have cut 9.3 million seats for June through September and raised fares as jet fuel prices have risen more than 80 percent since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February. Spirit Airlines ceased operations permanently on Saturday, a closure widely blamed on those fuel costs. International Air Transport Association director general Willie Walsh warned that parts of Europe and Asia could see jet-fuel shortages in the coming weeks.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened "as soon as possible" and described a comprehensive ceasefire as an "urgent priority" during talks in Beijing with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, on Araghchi's first China visit since the war began on February 28. Wang welcomed Iran's pledge not to develop nuclear weapons but reaffirmed Iran's "legitimate right to peaceful use of nuclear energy"; Araghchi thanked Beijing for its "firm stance." The Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders met in Cebu, the Philippines, with the agenda effectively rewritten by the war: behind closed doors, fuel supplies, food prices and migrant workers dominated, even as the chairmanship's pro-US line and consensus rules kept the public communiqué muted. Other items on the table included Myanmar's push for normalisation, a South China Sea code of conduct, and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute. North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly amended the constitution in March, deleting all references to reunification with South Korea, designating Seoul as a permanent adversary, defining North Korean territory as bounded by China and Russia to the north and the "Republic of Korea" to the south, and naming Kim Jong Un head of state with command over a "responsible nuclear weapons state"; South Korea's Unification Ministry confirmed the changes on May 6.

In the United States, Treasury figures pushed the national debt past 100 percent of GDP for the first time since 1946, to $31.265 trillion, or 100.2 percent of GDP. Net interest payments overtook defense spending for the first time in 2024 and, by Congressional Budget Office projection, will reach 4.6 percent of GDP and roughly double the defense line by 2036.

In Europe, the Metropolitan Police announced a 100-officer Community Protection Team to safeguard London's Jewish communities after a series of arson attacks on Jewish sites and a Golders Green double stabbing being investigated as terrorism; the Met logged 140 antisemitic offences in London in April — 51 in Barnet alone — the highest monthly tally since recording changed in March 2024. The unit is funded from £18 million of a £25 million Home Office package and has already paid for around 1,000 additional officer shifts per week; about 50 people have been arrested and eight charged.