Yang Minghao, Wang Ying | Where Will Wagner Go After the Attack in Mali?
On a specific date, the Malian government forces and the Russian private military company Wagner Group suffered significant casualties in clashes with separatist armed groups. The Malian separatist armed factions claimed that both sides engaged in a three-day battle near the northern border of Mali, during which they killed dozens of government soldiers and Wagner mercenaries. This conflict is one of the many security services provided by Wagner to the Malian government following France's withdrawal from Mali, and it is the only battle where Wagner soldiers suffered a heavy defeat. In this battle, the entire 13th Assault Team of Wagner, including its commander, was wiped out, resulting in significant losses in both personnel and reputation for Wagner.
After the Wagner mutiny, a significant number of soldiers withdrew from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield and returned to the African continent. The death of leader Prigozhin and the adjustments made by the Russian government to Wagner have had a considerable impact on Wagner's African market. This trend can also be observed from the recent conflict.
The Wagner Group, also known as the Wagner Private Military Service Company, is a Russian paramilitary organization and private military company. The name Wagner is derived from the German composer Richard Wagner. Due to the potential violation of the Russian Federation Constitution and Criminal Code by some of Wagner's mercenary activities, the Wagner Group has been operating in a legal gray area. The newly revised Russian Federal Law on Private Security and Detective Activities has imposed stricter and more detailed regulations on the licensing, weapon usage, and scope of activities of private security companies.
Before the "Wagner Incident," the organization was involved in multiple overseas conflicts, with Africa being one of its primary areas of activity. Following World War II, African countries frequently experienced military coups, social unrest, and the suffering of the people, which provided opportunities for Wagner to expand its presence in Africa. Wagner's operations in various African countries primarily involve training and equipping local militaries, as well as providing security services for governments and businesses to protect critical infrastructure and mineral resources.
Wagner provides security services to African nations, including protection for key political and business figures, critical infrastructure, and resource development areas. They occasionally participate in counterterrorism operations, offering intelligence support, tactical guidance, and direct action to assist local governments in combating terrorist organizations, safeguarding local residents and vital facilities from the threats posed by extremism and insurgent groups.
In providing security services to African nations, Wagner has also established a vast resource extraction network in Africa. The continent's rich mineral resources and underdeveloped mining technologies have attracted Wagner's attention. The substantial profits from resource development have provided Wagner with ample financial support for its operations, which extend beyond the African continent.
Wagner has been committed to expanding its cultural influence in Africa, and more deeply, to expanding Russia's cultural influence in Africa. Wagner has expanded its cultural influence in Africa through a series of initiatives, sponsoring local radio stations and beauty pageants, significantly increasing its exposure and enhancing its popularity among the African populace while generating over a billion dollars in annual revenue.
Following the Wagner mutiny and Prigozhin's death, the leadership vacuum and Russian official intervention led to short-term turbulence within Wagner. The widespread attention now focuses on how Wagner will develop its operations in Africa. The recent appearance in the Mali battlefield confirms that Wagner has not completely abandoned its African business. Although the defeat was influenced by factors such as sandstorms and underestimation of the enemy, it forces a reevaluation of this force that has been active in Africa for many years.
With the deepening of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the risks arising from the lack of overseas security in our country are gradually emerging. Factors such as political stability, social security, terrorism threats, and natural disasters seriously threaten the safety of Chinese enterprises and citizens. Currently, the development of overseas security companies in our country also faces a series of problems. Compared to countries like the United States, Europe, and Russia, our overseas security companies started later, have smaller business scales, and are not highly integrated with international standards.