The current electoral prospects for the Liberal Democratic Party are not optimistic, and whether this sudden event can garner the so-called "sympathy votes" for the Liberal Democratic Party remains to be seen.

The process of Japan's political parties making a final push for the House of Representatives election has not been smooth. According to CCTV News, before dawn, a man in his 40s threw a Molotov cocktail at the headquarters of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and then drove his car to crash into the fence outside the Prime Minister's residence, where he was immediately arrested. The man drove a van and threw several items resembling Molotov cocktails at the LDP headquarters. One of the Molotov cocktails hit a guard vehicle parked in the LDP headquarters compound. No one was injured, except for the damaged vehicle. The man then drove towards the Prime Minister's residence, about 100 meters away, crashed into the fence in front of it, and threw items resembling smoke bombs into the Prime Minister's residence. The Japanese police arrested him on the spot for obstructing official duties.

According to the investigation, the man is named Atsunobu Usuda, currently aged, residing in Kawaguchi City, Saitama Prefecture. The police found several unused Molotov cocktails in the van he was driving. The man remains silent about the motive behind the incident. The police are conducting an investigation into this matter. At the time of the event, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was not at the Prime Minister's residence, and no casualties were reported.

The current period coincides with the time when various political parties in Japan are gearing up for the upcoming House of Representatives election at the end of the month. According to the public plan, after the dissolution of the House of Representatives in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba has set the date for the House of Representatives election to further consolidate his power.

Historical Reenactment? After the incident, a Chinese person in Japan told First Financial News through social media that the Prime Minister's Office and the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party are only a few meters apart, making this the most serious incident targeting Japan's political hub in recent years, "truly rare." According to CCTV News, Atsunobu Usuda, who threw incendiary bombs at the LDP headquarters and attempted to storm the Prime Minister's Office, resides in Kawaguchi City, Saitama Prefecture. According to investigation-related sources, he was wearing protective clothing at the time of the crime. Additionally, he had previously participated in activities opposing the restart of nuclear power plants. The Public Security Bureau of the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department is investigating Usuda's motives for the crime.

In recent years, extreme violent incidents have also begun to gradually impact Japan's political arena. Among them, the most shocking to the world was the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Nara City during a street speech. At the time, Abe was fatally shot by a former member of the Self-Defense Forces while delivering a speech. In October, then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida experienced a terrifying moment during a street speech at a fishing port in Wakayama City. Before the speech, a man detonated a homemade bomb at the scene, causing a loud explosion; fortunately, Kishida himself was unharmed.

It is noteworthy that last year, when Kishida narrowly escaped an assassination attempt, it coincided with the Japanese House of Representatives election. Although the explosion incident did not affect the subsequent electoral process, Natsuo Yamaguchi, the then representative of the Komeito party, stated that less than a year had passed since the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Abe, and during the election period, another incident involving the use of explosives occurred in Japan. Such behavior is absolutely unacceptable.

In fact, according to publicly available information, there have not been many instances of Japanese politicians being attacked in recent years. Before Abe's assassination, the last Japanese politician to be shot could be traced back to the year. On that year's month day, Ito Kazunaga, the then mayor of Nagasaki, was shot in the back by a man with a gun as he stepped off his campaign vehicle after concluding his mayoral campaign activities near Nagasaki's central station. He collapsed and was rushed to the hospital, where he was pronounced dead after failing to respond to resuscitation efforts.

However, in recent years, data released by the Japanese National Police Agency shows that the incidence of criminal cases in Japan has been gradually increasing. In the entire year, the Japanese police handled over 1 million criminal cases nationwide, marking the second consecutive year of increase. In 2022, the Japanese police recognized a total of 635,000 criminal cases, a 1.3% increase from 2021, the first increase in 13 years. Last year, a police questionnaire survey revealed that 57.8% of Japanese respondents believed that "public security has deteriorated," citing reasons such as multiple criminal cases occurring in trains, streets, and other locations, as well as the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The LDP faces a "do-or-die battle" this year. The aforementioned Chinese individual also stated that given the current situation where various political parties are in the final sprint towards the end-of-month elections, this unexpected incident also tests the Japanese police's security and emergency response capabilities, "No one wants history to repeat itself." At the same time, he emphasized that the current electoral prospects for the LDP are not optimistic, and whether this incident can garner so-called "sympathy votes" for the LDP remains to be seen.

According to Xinhua News Agency, multiple Japanese media outlets have predicted based on the latest public opinion survey results that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Shigeru Ishiba, may fail to secure a majority of seats in the upcoming House of Representatives election at the end of this month. This time, Japanese political parties will compete for 465 seats, with a majority being 233 seats. Before the dissolution of the House of Representatives, the LDP held 276 seats, and together with the Komeito Party, they held 300 seats. According to polls conducted by media outlets such as Kyodo News, the LDP may lose its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in years, falling below 233 seats. However, the combined number of seats held by the LDP and its ruling coalition partner, the Komeito Party, is expected to continue to exceed the majority.

For this House of Representatives election, there are a total of small electoral districts and proportional representation districts across Japan. According to public opinion polls, in all small electoral districts, candidates from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) only have an advantage in about half of the districts; in the proportional representation districts, the number of seats won by the LDP is expected to decrease. The situation for the Komeito Party is also not optimistic, and the number of seats they win may also decrease. In the small electoral districts, voters directly vote for candidates, and the candidate with the most votes is elected; in the proportional representation districts, voters vote for political parties, and seats are allocated to each party based on the proportion of votes they receive.

For the LDP's public opinion polls, Xiang Haoyu, a specially-appointed researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, believes that the "black gold" scandal will make the LDP's electoral prospects in this House of Representatives election in Japan "extremely severe." "The scandal is still fermenting. And Ishiba Shigeru is also facing constraints from various factions within the party in the handling process. If he handles it too strictly, it will provoke a backlash within the party; if he handles it too loosely, the public will not be satisfied. Therefore, for Ishiba Shigeru and the LDP, this will be the most difficult time in recent years."

Currently, opposition parties are eagerly eyeing the House of Representatives election. The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, elected former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its new leader almost simultaneously with the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election at the end of the month. Noda stated that he would lead the party in full preparation for the election, striving for a change of government. Noda had previously criticized Shigeru Ishiba's decision to call for an early election, accusing him of "disrespecting the Diet." The party's secretary-general, Atsushi Ogawa, also expressed earlier that "dissolving the House of Representatives is an attempt to cover up the 'black money' issue, which must not be allowed."

On the specified date, the leaders of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Japan Innovation Party, Democratic Party for the People, and other major opposition parties held a meeting, believing that the Ishiba Shigeru Cabinet dissolved the House of Representatives without providing sufficient explanations on the political and financial issues, indicating that it prioritizes party interests. Therefore, they initiated a motion of no confidence against the Cabinet. The Liberal Democratic Party had suffered defeats in the by-elections for the House of Representatives earlier this year and also faced setbacks in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, which were seen as a "prelude" to the House of Representatives election. In this House of Representatives election, the realistic goal of the opposition parties is to strive to deprive the Liberal Democratic Party and its allies of a majority in the House of Representatives, while the Liberal Democratic Party will work to maintain an "absolute stable majority" (i.e., at least 261 seats, ensuring the appointment of all standing committee chairpersons in the House of Representatives and more than half of the members of each committee).

According to a recent poll by a Japanese media outlet, % of respondents expressed concern over economic, employment, and inflation issues as the most pressing topics ahead of the upcoming elections at the end of the month. % of respondents mentioned pension and defense security issues, while % of respondents indicated that they would continue to follow the developments related to the "black gold scandal."