The spot price of gold broke through the $1,000 mark on a certain date and closed at $1,000 for the week. Since breaking through the $1,000 mark in a certain month, the gold price has surged sharply. Influenced by the rising gold price, the retail prices of gold jewelry from multiple domestic brands have also increased. Currently, the prices of pure gold jewelry from brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and Chow Sang Sang all exceed RMB 1,000 per gram, with the highest reaching RMB 1,000 per gram.

Recently, the probability of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump winning the election has increased. Goldman Sachs believes that the recent influx of funds into gold is a repositioning of investment portfolios ahead of the US election. Regardless of the election outcome, gold prices may rise further due to the gradual decline in global interest rates and the structural increase in central bank demand. If Trump wins, gold prices could rise further, driven by risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks such as tariffs.

It is worth noting that silver, which has a more industrial nature, has seen stronger gains over the past week. Spot silver broke through the $25 per ounce mark on a certain date, the first time since August 2020, with the silver price surging as much as 6% on that day. This was primarily driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of economic stimulus in China.

Increasing Gold Positions to Address Uncertainty. If in the past, gold prices were supported by interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, the recent surge in gold prices cannot be ignored due to changes in the U.S. election situation. On a certain date, the price of gold reached a new high of $2,000 per ounce, up 5% from the beginning of last week, and continued to break through the $2,000 mark on Friday. Traders said this was mainly due to capital inflows, as institutions began to rebalance their portfolios ahead of the U.S. election.

Recently, Trump's approval ratings have significantly increased, and the market is increasingly convinced that Trump will win the upcoming U.S. election next month. Cryptocurrency prediction market platforms show that Trump leads with a % win rate against Harris's %, significantly ahead. However, these accounts are held by multiple people or the same individual, and not all are American. Despite this, UBS told reporters that the two candidates are evenly matched, and it is expected that uncertainty and volatility may rise until the next U.S. government is settled.

Additionally, the impact of geopolitics has also heated up recently. Multiple interviewees mentioned that, compared to interest rate cuts, the most significant short-term driver for gold prices is undoubtedly geopolitical risks. Following Israel's announcement of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, market concerns have grown that the Middle East conflict may escalate further. Although U.S. President Biden stated that it is time to end the war, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently declared that Israel will continue to fight until all the hostages captured by Hamas last year are released.

A series of factors will continue to support gold prices in the near future. Wellington Investment Management mentioned to reporters that among commodities, they primarily favor gold and crude oil. Gold prices will continue to be supported by the lowering of policy interest rates, which typically leads to increased demand for gold. Central banks' purchases of gold remain strong, and retail gold demand in China and India has increased due to tax incentives.

As early as last month, First Financial reported that gold's rise to $2,000 seemed to be just a matter of time. Since the third quarter, the momentum of gold prices has led several Wall Street investment banks to raise their target prices. Most institutions have set a target price of $2,000 for either this year or the first half of next year, with many also calling for $2,000. In less than a short month since early this month, gold has climbed nearly $200. For gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, the global central bank's interest rate cuts undoubtedly highlight its value.

Moreover, the trend of central bank gold purchases is crucial, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have already been priced into the market. The decoupling of gold prices and interest rates this year has been entirely driven by central bank gold purchases. Although the People's Bank of China has paused its gold purchases in recent months, India's gold imports reached a record high in September, particularly after the Indian government announced in its Union Budget on September 1st that it would reduce the import tariff from the previous 10% to 7.5%, boosting import demand.

However, a pullback cannot be ruled out in the near term. "Previously, gold prices experienced a pullback before the US data was released, and another short-term pullback followed the release of the data that exceeded expectations, but the trend continued before the breakthrough. On the day, the bulls surged again to the previous high of $2,070, then retreated to the first support point at $2,050. After that, another new high was established," Stanley, a senior market strategist at Gain Capital, told reporters.

"We have seen longs taking profits around the dollar, leading to the next pullback. In this scenario, the previous high point in dollars will become a key support point. If this level is breached, further profit-taking could intensify, and the focus will shift to the dollar or dollars. However, in the medium to long term, gold is still inclined to rise," he said.

China's stimulus policies boost silver prices. After a long period of silence, silver has also begun to surge, with last week's gains even outpacing gold. On the day of the U.S. trading session, spot silver broke through the $20 mark for the first time since August 2020. By the close, silver prices had expanded their gains to 5.2%, trading at $20.39 per ounce, continuing to set new historical highs alongside gold spot prices.

Traders believe that if the key threshold of the dollar is breached, silver prices could climb to $... in the short term. In addition to the recent significant decline in the risk of a US recession (non-farm payrolls data for the month, exceeding expectations), China's continuous economic stimulus is also boosting market sentiment, and silver's industrial attributes are stimulating traders' enthusiasm for going long. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks could provide further support.

On a certain date, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released economic activity data for the month and the third quarter. The third quarter's real year-on-year growth slowed from 6.3% in the second quarter to 4.9%, exceeding market expectations of 4.5%. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the third quarter's growth increased from 0.8% in the second quarter to 1.3%.

Nomura noted that China's industrial production and retail sales growth both exceeded expectations, with year-on-year increases of 4.6% and 5.5% respectively in November (market expectations were 5.7% and 5.4% respectively), significantly rebounding from 4.5% and 2.5% in October. The recovery in industrial production was mainly driven by electric vehicles and solar panels, with the output of these two products accelerating to year-on-year growth rates of 42.9% and 35.4% respectively in November, compared to 8.5% and -1.2% in October.

Conversely, affected by the continuous downturn in the real estate industry, the growth in cement production remains negative, with a month-on-month increase of -%, showing little change compared to -% in the previous month. Thanks to the old-for-new programs for home appliances and automobiles, retail sales of home appliances and automobiles in the month accelerated to % and % respectively, while in the previous month they were % and -% respectively.

Will silver continue to rise in the future? Institutions believe that the "gold-silver ratio" has already dropped from its previous level to. Historically, the gold-silver ratio can fall to around, leaving room for silver to further catch up. However, a stronger dollar could limit its upside potential. Institutions tend to believe that if Trump takes office, the dollar is more likely to surge initially. Traders may closely monitor further policy developments in China and any changes in global risk sentiment.

Recently, expectations for the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates have also been revised. The market now anticipates a slightly smaller rate cut by the end of the year, whereas before the release of the non-farm payrolls data on the 1st, the expected rate cut was nearly as large.