Recently, an account named "Middle East Observer" posted on the social media platform "Telegram" what it claimed to be top-secret intelligence documents originating from the United States, revealing Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran. The U.S. side stated that it is investigating this leak.

The social media account named "Middle East Observer" released a message stating that Israel is preparing for a strike against Iran. The documents disclosed by the account describe the ammunition movements and military exercises of the Israeli side. This includes the deployment of dozens of air-launched ballistic missiles by the Israeli Air Force at Hatzerim Air Base since the day, and the deployment of several air-to-ground missiles at Ramat David Air Base and Ramon Air Base from the day to the day. Additionally, the Israeli Air Force conducted exercises on the day, practicing aerial refueling and combat search and rescue operations, involving refueling aircraft, early warning aircraft, and possibly fighter jets, and continued to use drones for secret operations on the day.

The document also mentioned that the United States has not seen any indication that Israel plans to use nuclear weapons. CNN reported that this implies Israel actually possesses nuclear weapons.

According to the messages posted by this account and reports from U.S. media, the sources of these documents include the U.S. National Security Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is part of the U.S. Department of Defense. The documents can only be accessed by the "Five Eyes" countries, namely the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the leak incident is extremely concerning and that the relevant investigation is ongoing.

US media reported that informed sources confirmed the authenticity of the documents. "Middle East Observer" released multiple statements claiming that these documents were received through anonymous private messages. "Middle East Observer" has no contact with the leaker, does not know the identity of the leaker, nor is it clear about the authenticity of the leaked documents.

CNN reports that an insider has confirmed the authenticity of these documents.

US media claims the incident reveals detailed surveillance of Israel's military activities by the US. American media believes that the leaked documents show the US has conducted highly detailed surveillance and reconnaissance on Israel's military activities through means such as satellites.

Although the United States has been making efforts to obtain information directly from Israel, understand intelligence regarding Israel's plans for retaliating against Iran, and engage in various dialogues, the U.S. itself continues to gather intelligence and monitor Israel's activities in order to independently grasp what might happen.

Michael Mullen, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, stated that if the tactical plan for Israel's response to the Iranian attack on the 10th was indeed leaked, it would be a "serious dereliction of duty," and the trust between the United States and Israel could be compromised.

Expert: The incident indicates a lack of communication between the US and Israel on certain key issues. What do these two leaked top-secret documents reveal? After the retaliation plan was leaked, will Israel's strike against Iran still proceed as scheduled?

Question 1: What do the contents of the top-secret documents reveal? Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, stated that the contents, based on the text, primarily consist of information summaries and scenarios from U.S. intelligence agencies on the current situation, rather than direct intelligence sharing from Israel to the U.S. Therefore, the accuracy of the information may not be fully guaranteed, but it clearly indicates that the U.S. is monitoring Israel's intelligence. The documents also suggest that the U.S. and Israel do not seem to be cooperating and communicating as deeply on key issues as expected by the outside world.

Question 2: Will the leak incident affect the US-Israel relationship? Considering the recipients of this intelligence, the US is sharing the surveillance results of Israel, which are highly valued by the Israeli side and pertain to reshaping regional military deterrence and protecting its national security, with other members of the "Five Eyes Alliance." This is bound to provoke strong dissatisfaction from Israel and affect Israel's judgment on the positioning of the US and the US-Israel relationship.

Question Three: Will Israel change its strike plan against Iran? The intelligence leaked this time does not seem to be accidental theft; both documents are very clear. Some media speculate that it is not ruled out that the U.S. actively or intentionally allowed this leak, aiming to force Israel to delay its military retaliation against Iran, to avoid affecting the U.S. presidential election.

The leaked report this time includes the deployment of some of the Israeli military's weapons and equipment. The authenticity of the documents in this leak has already been confirmed by the relevant parties, which directly disrupts Israel's military deployment and operational plans. Israel will now have to readjust its overall military arrangements.

Question Four: How will Israel adjust its strike plan against Iran? First, the timing of the strike may be adjusted. The general consensus is that the leak of intelligence will force Israel to delay the timing of the strike, but Israel may also choose to do the opposite. Second, the targets of the strike may change. Previously, it was rumored that Israel had excluded sensitive military facilities and oil infrastructure in Iran. To increase deterrence, Israel may not rule out re-including these sensitive targets in the strike scope in the future. Third, the means of attack may differ. The disclosed equipment may be adjusted during actual combat. Fourth, there will be an increase in intelligence warfare efforts. The intelligence leak has also served as a reminder for Israel, which will undoubtedly strengthen its efforts in counter-espionage and intelligence collection against Iran. Additionally, Israel may not rule out the possibility of releasing false information to confuse the public and provide cover for the actual strike operations.