Who leads the property market "Xiaoyangchun"

editor's note 进入3月份以来，楼市迎来所谓“金三银四”，尽管同比来看，市场整体热度不及去年，但环比来看，部分热点城市成交反弹明显。一方面多重政策利好，加上房价下行，刺激刚需入市；另一方面，置换也带来大量需求。本期地产周刊主要聚焦一二线热点城市，盘点首季市场表现，重点剖析哪些城市热度较高，领跑本轮反弹行情。

** 楼市半月谈**

■ China Economic Times reporter Xia Jinbiao

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The real estate market is still in the process of adjustment. With the arrival of the peak sales season of "Gold, Three and Silver", real estate policies in key cities continue to be optimized.

Recently, the "divorce purchase restriction" policy implemented in Beijing City for nearly three years was abolished. The policy was introduced by Beijing City in 2021. Its purpose is to crack down on the behavior of dividing and transferring property after divorce to obtain eligibility for housing purchases. The abolition of the "divorce purchase restriction" policy means that after Tongzhou District canceled the "double purchase restriction" for housing, Beijing City's housing purchase restriction policy has been relaxed again.

At the same time, Shenzhen City has also optimized its real estate policies. The Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Bureau issued a notice to stop implementing the "Notice on Implementing the Proportion Requirements of Residential Units in accordance with National Policies." This move means that the real estate "90/70 policy" has withdrawn from Shenzhen's real estate market.

The so-called "90/70 policy" originated from the "Several Opinions on Implementing the Structural Proportion Requirements for New Housing" issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in 2006. The document clarifies that starting from June 1, 2006, among the total area of newly approved and newly started commercial housing in each city (including counties) annually (calculated from June 1), housing with a floor area of less than 90 square meters (including affordable housing) must account for more than 70%. The cancellation of the "90/70 policy" in Shenzhen this time can meet the demand of home buyers for large units, increase the enthusiasm of real estate companies to acquire land, and help promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first two months of this year, national real estate development investment fell by 9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points from the previous year. Real estate companies have regained their willingness to invest in land purchase. In addition, in February, the month-on-month decline in commercial residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities and cities continued to narrow overall, and the second-hand housing market performed better than new homes. This shows that the real estate market is beginning to show positive signals of stabilization.

The State Council executive meeting on March 22 made important arrangements for promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The meeting proposed that we should further optimize real estate policies, continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, protecting people's livelihood, and ensuring stability, further promote the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, systematically plan relevant support policies, effectively stimulate potential demand, and increase the supply of high-quality housing., promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The industry believes that as key cities further optimize real estate policies, gradually relax restrictive policies such as purchase restrictions and lower purchase thresholds, reasonable housing demand is expected to be further released. In addition, the real estate development and investment situation is expected to further improve by promoting the real estate financing coordination mechanism and optimizing the effects of land supply policies and measures.

The meeting also pointed out that it is necessary to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, accelerate the improvement of the "market + guarantee" housing supply system, reform basic systems related to commercial housing, and strive to build a new real estate development model.

At present, the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has undergone major changes, and the total supply has been basically met. However, the contradiction in the supply structure is still prominent. In particular, the shortage of affordable housing has become a shortcoming in the development of the real estate industry. Increasing the construction and supply of affordable housing and building a new housing supply system are also important focuses in building a new real estate development model. It can not only bring about an increase in real estate investment and solve the housing problems of new citizens and young people, but also promote the linkage of "people, housing, land and money" factors to accelerate the establishment of a new real estate development model.

It can be expected that as policies in key cities continue to be optimized, such as optimizing purchase restrictions for large units, optimizing purchase restrictions in suburban areas, reducing down payment ratios, lowering mortgage interest rates, and reducing transaction taxes, the real estate market in key cities is expected to stabilize and recover. In the medium and long term, China's urbanization rate and per capita housing area are still far behind those of developed countries. China still has certain space in terms of the housing needs of new urban population and the improved housing needs of replacing small and large and old ones with new ones. With the gradual establishment and improvement of the "market + security" housing supply system and a new real estate development model, the real estate market will usher in long-term stable and high-quality development.