The entire line has blown up! Will ocean freight prices continue to soar?
Recently, Amazon warehouses have experienced a full-scale congestion. With the year-end peak season approaching, "Black Friday and Cyber Monday" is a crucial event for cross-border e-commerce sellers to prepare for. According to Amazon's announcement of the "Black Friday and Cyber Monday" dates for various sites, this year's major promotional event will last for several days. However, in recent times, multiple Amazon warehouses have faced severe congestion, with many sellers' goods being held up, even for months in transit at the operations centers, leading to significant delays in shipping and long waits for goods to be listed. Issues such as canceled appointments, slow inbound processing, and delayed listing have also emerged, with many sellers reporting that their inventory is already running out on the front end.
It is understood that multiple Amazon warehouses are currently experiencing congestion, with the most severe congestion occurring in the western United States, while the central and eastern United States are relatively moderate. In addition to the U.S. site, the situation in European warehouses is also not optimistic, with severe congestion at the end of the European shipping line, and some warehouses have been temporarily closed due to congestion.
In fact, in addition to Amazon, as the peak season approaches in the second half of the year and cargo shipments surge, almost all shipping routes in the container shipping market are experiencing full capacity. On the US routes, both the US West Coast and East Coast are experiencing full capacity by the end of the month, with some shipping companies still having a few sailings available, expected to last until mid-month. Industry insiders indicate that the reasons for this round of full capacity are mainly influenced by the US election affecting tariff policies, customers rushing to ship goods, the early Chinese New Year, disputes over US port automation, and the risk of strikes.
On the Europe route, due to the shipping companies' announcement of a monthly price increase, most ships experienced full capacity and significant price hikes by the end of the month. Additionally, the first week of the month in East China saw reduced capacity on the Europe route due to stoppages and delays, resulting in an estimated % loss of shipping capacity. Before the end of the month, India-Pakistan routes also saw full capacity and price increases, leading to corresponding rises in the Middle East and Red Sea freight rates. In South America, the Christmas and New Year shipping rush has led to fewer ships and more cargo, resulting in full capacity by the end of the month, including on the East and West coasts of South America. It is expected that freight rates will rise in the coming month. In Southeast Asia, the market as a whole experienced full capacity and price increases, with some rates seeing substantial hikes. By the end of the month, many shipping companies had no more available berths, with some local routes already fully booked until the first week of the next month. Currently, only berths for the second week of the next month can be booked.
As the severe congestion in various shipping routes continues, freight rates have also started to rise. Following the previous announcements by multiple shipping companies to adjust their rates in the coming month, several major companies, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and others, have recently released new plans for rate adjustments in September, affecting routes to Europe, the Mediterranean, India, Pakistan, and Africa. Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange's Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for Europe shows that from the index value of . on January 1st to . on September 1st, the rate has increased by % over the course of nine months.
It is understood that this round of freight rate increase is different from previous ones. In the past, "black swan" events such as the Red Sea crisis caused market prices to rise rapidly in a short period of time, while this time the freight rate increase has been prolonged and continuous. Regarding the subsequent trend of freight rates, Wu Jialu, head of the Industry and Cycle Group at CITIC Futures Research Institute, believes that subsequent freight rates will show a trend of fluctuating and strengthening. The industry is also optimistic about the duration of this round of "shipment boom," expecting it to last until the end of this year or even into next year.