2024.11.04

本文字数：2230，阅读时长大约4分钟

Introduction: In a bid to seize the "national subsidy" benefits, manufacturers are launching new promotions, with Dong Mingzhu and Yu Minhong set to co-host a live stream. Some consumers purchasing double-digit air conditioners are doing so in anticipation of next year's needs.

I regret a bit that I bought the air conditioner at a higher price this year. Ms. Chen from Guangzhou told the First Financial Daily reporter that dual-air conditioner prices were cheaper this year. The reporter noticed that this year's double promotion, combined with the national old-for-new subsidy policy, has seen prices of some well-known brands' 1-horsepower air conditioners drop to around 1,000 yuan, and similar products from the top three brands in the industry drop to around 1,500 yuan. Air conditioner manufacturers are all scrambling to benefit from the "national subsidy" and boost their performance, but some industry insiders worry that low-price competition could deplete future demand.

国家平台双补贴下的超低价
11月4日，记者在京东商城看到，许多1.5匹新一级能效变频空调已是“千元机”，如格力2499元的空调补贴后1999元，美的2399元的空调补贴后1999元，海尔2399元的空调补贴后1999元，小米2199元的米家空调补贴后1759元，海信1999元的空调补贴后1599元，长虹1799元的空调补贴后1439元，TCL 1699元的空调补贴后1359元，京灿奥克斯1599元的空调补贴后1279元，万宝1399元的空调补贴后1119元等。记者在拼多多、抖音上也看到类似价位的空调。在拼多多，1.5匹新一级能效变频冷暖空调中，奥克斯华蒜空调1278元，美的华凌空调1669元，海尔统帅空调1549元。在抖音，奥克斯华蒜1699元的大1.5匹空调补贴后1359元，小米米家1.5匹新一级能效空调补贴后1759元。

"The multi-functional model is already the second lowest price, similar to Dongbao and Shenhua. A 1.5-ton cold and warm air conditioner can be found for around 1,000 yuan." Peng Yu, from Beijing Zitan Dongjian Data Co., Ltd., believes that for now, ultra-low-priced air conditioners around 1,000 yuan are mainly operated by third-tier brands, and mainstream air conditioner manufacturers are unlikely to consistently offer such ultra-low prices. After all, first- and second-tier mainstream brands already have considerable price competitiveness with the support of nationwide old-for-new subsidies.

San You Environmental Protection Chairman Xiao Youyuan analyzed to the First Financial Daily reporter that this year's dual-air conditioner market has seen numerous "thousand-yuan machines," mainly due to two reasons: on one hand, there is national subsidy. According to the new old-for-new subsidy policy that the country has intensified this year, consumers can receive subsidies of % and % for purchasing air conditioners with first- and second-level energy efficiency, respectively; on the other hand, the market environment is unfavorable, with a high inventory in the domestic air conditioner market. To speed up shipments, air conditioner manufacturers have also provided some promotional subsidies.

Xiao Youyuan said that under normal circumstances, a 1.5-horsepower air conditioner with a three-level energy efficiency rating would generally cost at least 1,000 yuan, and a 1-horsepower air conditioner with a first-level energy efficiency rating would generally cost at least 2,000 yuan. From the current prices, some "thousand-yuan air conditioners" are breaking even in terms of cost, while others are operating at a loss. "The prices of air conditioners from mainstream platforms and brands, with first-level energy efficiency products generally starting at around 2,000 yuan, and promotional prices as low as 1,500 yuan during Double Eleven, after a 10% national subsidy, would be around 1,350 yuan," said the spokesperson for Meibo Group. "Most 'thousand-yuan air conditioners' are priced after platform subsidies and national subsidies. For example, the 1,000 yuan Wanbao air conditioner under Meibo is the result of a 500 yuan subsidy from JD.com plus a 10% national subsidy. Currently, the factory is not operating at a loss."

According to Long Fei, an analyst from the industry online, the domestic household air conditioner market still has an inventory of over ten thousand units, remaining at a high inventory level, which requires time to "de-stock." Therefore, many air conditioner manufacturers and merchants are both "rolling prices." The current low prices of air conditioners are mainly due to enterprises wanting to attract traffic with low-priced product models. Air conditioner enterprises are currently still focused on achieving this year's sales targets, and the situation for next year will be considered later. From a cost perspective, the "thousand-yuan machines" should be losing money.

空调后市可能会回归基本面
受国家以旧换新补贴政策刺激，今年8月起，国内空调市场逐步复苏。据奥维云网（AVC）数据，8月国内家用空调零售量为492.1万台，同比增长22.1%。10月份，国内空调企业总排产1033万台，同比增长23.1%，其中内销排产478万台，同比增长8.4%。10月21日至10月27日，空调在国内线上的销售额、销量、均价分别同比增长63.96%、47.08%、11.48%；线下的销售额、销量、均价分别同比增长98.81%、82.15%和8.88%。

This year, major air conditioning manufacturers and retailers have actively sought to capitalize on the "national subsidy" to boost their annual performance. According to a reporter from the First Financial Daily, who visited the Douyin live streams of Gree and Xiaomi on a certain day, the "national subsidy" quotas for provinces other than Guangdong had been exhausted two days prior. However, consumers who have tasted the sweetness of a 30% subsidy for first-class energy-efficient products still hold similar expectations. Consequently, manufacturers have launched new promotions. Xiaomi encourages consumers interested in subsidies to join their WeChat group, while Gree advises consumers to pay attention to a live broadcast featuring the company's chairman and president, Dong Mingzhu, in collaboration with Yu Minhong, the founder of New Oriental and the host of Dongfang Zhenxuan.

Xiao Youyuan believes that due to the incomplete recovery of the real estate market, the Chinese household air conditioner market has entered a stage of stock competition. It is expected that the market will find it difficult to experience another rapid growth spurt, and maintaining the current sales scale is already commendable. "The old-for-new subsidy policy is a 'booster shot' that can promote the recovery of the air conditioner market and stimulate consumer demand in the short term. In the long run, the air conditioner market will return to its fundamentals."

Next year's sales performance in the Chinese air conditioner market will primarily depend on the weather conditions and changes in the macroeconomic environment. In the absence of significant changes in these two factors, considering the "tail-raising" effect caused by the old-for-new subsidies this year, the year-on-year growth rate of sales in the Chinese air conditioner market next year is expected to slow down compared to this year's growth rate. Peng Yu predicts that, regardless of the situation, enterprises should still seize the opportunity of this year's old-for-new policy to strive for new highs in air conditioner sales.

A dealer in South China told the First Financial Daily reporter, "The implementation of the 'National Subsidy' policy will definitely deplete some of the future market demand. Currently, from the data feedback of some retail customers, about % of users are not in a hurry to have their goods delivered, leading to an increase in the storage area of these retail customers. Some users are buying in advance for next year's demand. If the 'National Subsidy' ends by the end of this year, the domestic air conditioner market will face even greater challenges next year."