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The latest statistics from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea show that the cumulative export value from January to October is $550.9 billion. The South Korean government had previously predicted that the total annual exports this year would reach a historical high since 2021 ($644.4 billion). However, contrary to the forecast, the growth rate of South Korea's exports has been slowing for three consecutive months, with increases of 7.8% in October, 3.6% in September, and 2.8% in August.

Daily exports also decreased by % in the month, marking the first negative growth in months. The main reason lies in the less-than-optimistic performance of the "major export items." According to data recently released by the Korea Customs Service, South Korea's passenger car exports in the third quarter of this year decreased by % year-on-year to $ billion, the first negative growth since the first quarter of 2019. The primary cause was the sluggish sales of mid-sized gasoline cars and new energy vehicles. Electric vehicle exports fell by %, and plug-in hybrid exports declined by %.

Additionally, South Korea's chip exports have also sounded the alarm. After adjusting for price changes, South Korea's semiconductor exports in both September and October fell by .% and .%, respectively, dragging down the overall data for the third quarter by .%. Historically, South Korea's semiconductor exports have shown a growth trend on a monthly basis, but recently, the rate of growth has been continuously slowing. Some more optimistic analyses suggest that based on historical data, even after chip exports reach their peak, demand remains robust. Earlier this year, the Bank of Korea also predicted that the upward trend in chip exports would continue until 2024.

However, the primary adverse factor for South Korean exporters lies in the uncertainty of overseas markets. Despite South Korea's export advantages in relevant products, economists from Bank of America have issued a warning: "The potential rise in trade barriers and America's self-sufficiency could reduce overall demand for South Korean goods." During the critical period of the U.S. presidential election, candidate Trump, who has vowed to impose higher tariffs in his campaign, is likely to further impact South Korea's trade performance.

The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy recently predicted that if Trump were to be elected, South Korea's exports could decrease by up to . trillion won. In this regard, researcher Lee Jeong-hoon from an investment securities firm analyzed that the momentum for South Korea's exports is expected to weaken further by the first half of next year.