Recently, the EU's eastward expansion has launched a series of "combination punches."

On the date, the Western Balkans "Berlin Process" summit was held, where the participants adopted the "Western Balkans Common Regional Market - Action Plan for 2023" aimed at further deepening economic integration in the Western Balkans and aligning with the EU's single market. From the date to the date, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (referred to as the EC), made consecutive visits to the five Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) and the Kosovo region, which are eager to join the EU. During these visits, she focused on discussing the EU's "Western Balkans Growth Plan" and "Western Balkans Economic and Investment Plan," sending and conveying signals of the EU's intention to attract and absorb new members from the Western Balkans. On the date, the EC released the 2023 Enlargement Package, which covers the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

Von der Leyen stated in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, that EU enlargement is an "absolute priority" during her re-election period. According to AFP, discussions about EU expansion in this region with nearly 100 million people date back to 20 years ago. However, Brussels has been indecisive during this period. Now, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has prompted the EU to accelerate its plans for eastward expansion, aiming to counter Russia's influence in the region.

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1

"European Powder Keg" Contradictions Complex

The Western Balkans, located at the intersection of multiple powers including the European Union, Russia, and Turkey, has always been a "battleground of strategic importance." After undergoing numerous changes, especially under the influence of the Ottoman Turkish Empire for centuries, the region has developed a complex distribution of ethnic groups and religious patterns. The national liberation movements of the ~ century and the decline of the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian Empires led to the rise of regional national consciousness. The intricate ethnic relations in the area made it the "powder keg of Europe" that ignited World War I.

During the interwar period, the first Yugoslavia ("Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes") was established under the intervention of the great powers. After World War II, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia led by Tito became a regional power for a time and played a pivotal role in the world's non-aligned movement.

In the last century, the Balkans experienced turbulent times, with long-standing ethnic and religious conflicts erupting once again. Yugoslavia underwent a bloody war and disintegrated into several countries: Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and (North) Macedonia.

Entering the century, especially after the year, joining the European Union became a priority for many countries in the region. Economically, the EU, as the largest source of investment and trading partner for the region, has close trade ties with the Western Balkans. Driven by both interests and history, EU countries led by Germany began to strengthen their connections with Western Balkan members, believing that "a prosperous Europe needs a stable Western Balkans," and the most effective way to achieve this is by promoting their accession to the EU.

2

EU policy tools are increasing

The EU's commitment to the accession of Western Balkan members began at the Thessaloniki Summit in the month of the year. In the declaration adopted at the meeting, the EU first explicitly stated that "the future of the Balkans belongs to the EU." Subsequently, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Albania became EU candidate countries in the years ~, with Croatia joining the EU in the year.

However, the intertwining of the European debt crisis, the refugee crisis, and the Ukraine crisis has left the EU unable to focus on enlargement, and the "long wait" for accession prospects has dampened the willingness of Western Balkan countries to reform for EU membership. For a time, the EU's "enlargement fatigue" became fully evident, and the prediction made by then-European Commission President Juncker at the beginning of his term—that no country would join the EU in the next five years—became a reality.

Subsequently, with changes in the geopolitical environment, the EU has once again prioritized the accession of Western Balkan members. After taking office as the President of the European Commission at the end of the year, von der Leyen stated that she would work to build a "geopolitical Commission," and the Western Balkans are a "must-win" area for the EU.

In [Month] [Year], the European Commission released the policy document "Accelerating the Accession Process – A Credible EU Perspective for the Western Balkans," which reinforced the reform intentions of Western Balkan members by reforming the accession mechanism and introducing "phased, progressive, and reversible" incentives and penalties. In the same month, the European Commission launched the "Western Balkans Economic and Investment Plan," aimed at financing key projects to promote regional development, guide the reform process, and promote EU standards.

In [Month], the Berlin Process Summit for the Western Balkans passed a decision to establish the "Common Regional Market of the Western Balkans," aiming to promote regional integration in the Western Balkans based on the EU's "Four Freedoms" (free movement of goods, services, capital, and people). This initiative seeks to foster reconciliation and cooperation among the countries in the region and prepare them for integration into the EU Single Market. "Dominated by reforms in the accession mechanism in the political sphere and by the 'Economic and Investment Plan' and the 'Common Regional Market of the Western Balkans' in the economic sphere," this approach has become the main policy tool for the EU to accelerate the accession of Western Balkan members under the new circumstances.

3

The EU accession process accelerated significantly under the Russia-Ukraine conflict

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has played a significant "catalyst" role in the accession process of Western Balkan members. From the perspective of the European Union, on one hand, it is concerned that Russia may exploit issues such as Kosovo and internal conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina to destabilize the situation in the Western Balkans; on the other hand, against the backdrop of disrupted energy supplies from Russia to Europe, the Western Balkans, as a transit route for energy pipelines and a key producer of raw materials, has become more strategically valuable.

As a result, the EU opened accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia in the month and year mentioned, and granted Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status in the same month and year. In the month of this year, the EU opened accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In the "Berlin Process" Summit in Tirana, the European Union officially launched the "Western Balkans Growth Plan" in the year and month, aiming to break down barriers between existing mechanisms by integrating the Western Balkans with the EU's single market, promoting economic integration within the Western Balkans region, implementing fundamental reforms, and establishing the "Four Pillars" of the Western Balkans Reform and Growth Mechanism. This was done by introducing stronger conditional mechanisms to link EU funds with the reform performance of regional countries, thereby enhancing the EU's leading role. The EU ultimately decided to provide incentives for regional country reforms with 1 billion euros from the "Reform and Growth Mechanism" (including 500 million euros in grants and 500 million euros in low-interest loans).

Under this mechanism, countries are required to submit a "reform agenda" to the European Commission as a prerequisite for receiving funds, which will set specific reform objectives and methods for each country. In January, the "Western Balkans Growth Plan" officially took effect. On February 15, the European Commission approved the "reform agenda" for Western Balkan members, excluding Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is against this backdrop that von der Leyen began her series of visits.

From the perspective of the European Union, the "Reform Agenda" under the "Western Balkans Growth Plan" will strengthen the EU's leadership in the region. EU policymakers believe that the previous "enlargement fatigue" was formed because, against the backdrop of the EU's difficulty in formally admitting Western Balkan members, the countries in the region lacked incentives for EU membership reforms. By setting up the "Reform Agenda," the EU will link reform performance with the funds received, the membership process, and the degree of access to the EU market. This will give the EU more leverage in its negotiations with Western Balkan members, requiring regional members to accelerate their EU membership reforms.

It is noteworthy that the EU also requires Western Balkan members to "align with the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy," which implies that the EU will also consider the relationships of regional members with "external forces" such as Russia and China in its evaluations.

In comparison, the Western Balkan members have relatively limited say in the EU's various reform measures. Whether it is the reform of the accession mechanism, the EU's economic stimulus initiatives and plans, or the drafting of negotiation documents on the Kosovo issue by the EU, it is dominated by major countries such as France and Germany, while regional members are more often policy recipients.

4

Still face multiple obstacles

Although the EU intends to tighten its ties of interest with the Western Balkan members and enhance its reform leadership over the regional members, the accession process of the Western Balkan members still faces multiple obstacles and challenges.

One is that the EU mechanism itself struggles to adapt to the scale of member states after enlargement. In [month], French President Emmanuel Macron vetoed the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, arguing that reforms to the EU enlargement mechanism and the EU's internal decision-making mechanism are needed first. On one hand, the "one-time irreversibility" of the enlargement mechanism has led to issues such as "democratic regression" in countries like Hungary and Poland after joining the EU; on the other hand, the EU's "unanimity" decision-making mechanism is already difficult to implement with the current 27 member states, and if all Western Balkan members were to be absorbed, the EU with over 30 member states would face a "decision-making stalemate."

Although the EU subsequently reformed its enlargement mechanism, forming a new mechanism of "phased, gradual, and reversible" progress, and consolidated it through the "Western Balkans Growth Plan," there is still no consensus among EU countries on reforms regarding internal decision-making power.

In the month of the year, the governments of France and Germany invited experts to write a report on EU institutional reform, proposing to change the "unanimity" voting to "effective majority" and establish a more core decision-making "inner circle" within the EU. This proposal was immediately met with resistance from Central and Eastern European countries, who saw it as a scheme by France and Germany to continue dominating the EU and dilute the sovereignty of smaller nations. Given that EU institutional reform concerns the core interests of all member states and requires unanimous approval, the EU is unlikely to break free from the "reform dilemma" in its decision-making mechanism in the short term.

Second, the EU has effectively kept Western Balkan members in a state of "perpetual accession without ever achieving it" by splitting the accession process. Aware of the difficulty in reaching consensus on internal reforms and enlargement, the EU has introduced a new mechanism for accession characterized by "staged, gradual, and reversible" steps, prolonging the accession process. At the same time, it grants certain rights of membership to candidate countries based on their performance and opens up parts of the EU market in certain areas, leading them to consistently follow EU policies both internally and externally under the lure of benefits.

As the degree of convergence between various countries and the European Union increases, it may eventually lead to "accession without membership," where countries integrate into the EU single market without obtaining EU membership status or voting rights. However, the Western Balkan members do not wish to stop at the "never-ending accession process." If the EU fails to fulfill its promise of "substantial accession," it will dampen the reform enthusiasm of the regional members and could even lead to the possibility of "decoupling."

The rapid progress of Ukraine and Moldova in their EU accession process has sparked discontent among the Western Balkan members. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the EU swiftly advanced the accession processes of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. In February and March of the same year, Ukraine and Moldova respectively applied for EU membership. In June, the EU granted candidate status to both countries. In December 2022, the European Council decided to initiate accession negotiations with them. The negotiations officially began in March of this year. Ukraine and Moldova completed their accession processes in just two years, a feat that took the Western Balkan members over a decade, surpassing Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, which has led to dissatisfaction among the Western Balkan members.

Moreover, regional members believe that the EU's constant reference to the accession process as a "process based on the performance of countries" has imposed a stronger conditional mechanism on Western Balkan members since the year. In contrast, the "rapid progress" of Ukraine and Moldova is clearly not based on the performance of reforms, but on geopolitical needs. Opponents argue that the EU's swift embrace of Ukraine and Moldova, and the initiation of accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina despite "not meeting the criteria," will undermine the fairness and objectivity of the accession mechanism.

Four is the intractable internal conflicts in the region. The EU has attempted to expedite the resolution of the Kosovo dispute, but with limited success. In [month], the EU pressured Serbia and the Kosovo authorities to "verbally accept" the "normalization agreement" drafted by France and Germany. In [month], it again pressured both parties to "verbally accept" the specific implementation agreement (later known as the "Ohrid Agreement"). According to this agreement, Serbia will no longer obstruct Kosovo's participation in international organizations, both sides will exchange representatives, and Kosovo will implement the 2013 "Brussels Agreement" by establishing a "Serb Municipal Alliance" in the northern Serb-populated areas.

However, both parties are dissatisfied with this agreement. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić believes it is an infringement on Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, stating that Serbia "will never recognize Kosovo's independence." Meanwhile, Kosovo is unwilling to establish a Serbian municipal alliance and instead seeks to strengthen its control over the north. It can be said that the EU's "external solution" not only failed to mediate the dispute but also stirred up the "sensitive nerves" of both sides.

The Kosovo authorities first demanded that all Serbs in the north replace their Serbian license plates with Kosovo ones. Following local resistance, the Kosovo authorities forcibly installed Albanian mayors in northern Serbian cities in [month] [year], leading to large-scale conflicts. In [month] of this year, the Kosovo authorities again demanded that Serbian cities cease using the Serbian dinar and only allow the use of the euro, and have consistently refused to fulfill the agreement to establish a "Serb Municipal Alliance."

Additionally, the complex ethnic and power structures within Bosnia and Herzegovina lead to inefficiency in the central government, with constant conflicts among the three main ethnic groups: Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats; Serbia and Albania have disagreements over the Kosovo issue, while Serbia and Croatia often clash due to historical and border disputes; North Macedonia and Bulgaria struggle to reach consensus on ethnic and cultural issues. Although these conflicts are generally manageable, the accession process requires "unanimity" from all EU member states, and the accession criteria demand that candidate countries have no bilateral or regional conflicts. The entangled regional conflicts will undoubtedly hinder the accession process of these countries.

As von der Leyen mentioned multiple times during this visit, "EU enlargement" is the "top priority" of the new European Commission, but whether this "top priority" can be achieved is still fraught with many uncertainties. To a certain extent, against the backdrop of no disruptive changes in the European or international landscape, the accession of the Western Balkans to the EU remains "a long and difficult journey." (Yang Bowen is an assistant researcher at the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies; Xu Gang is a researcher at the Research Center for Party Building in the New Era of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

END

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Source: Global Magazine, Issue Editor: Wu Meina

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