A phone call, a significant signal
On the date of the local time, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As a result, Scholz became the first Western major country leader to directly communicate with Putin in nearly two years. Taking the initiative to end the communication break. Scholz's last phone call with Putin was on the date of the year, when Scholz urged Russia to reach a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine issue as soon as possible. Putin, on the other hand, stated during that call that Western support led to Ukraine's refusal of any form of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Regarding the call on the date, Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov stated in an interview that the significance of Putin's recent call with Scholz lies in the fact that the call was initiated by the German side. The leaders of Russia and Germany mainly engaged in a detailed and candid discussion on the situation in Ukraine. Although there are differences in their perspectives, the dialogue itself has positive implications, and the leaders' assistants from both countries will maintain contact in the future.
The New York Times commented that Scholz's first direct communication with Putin in nearly two years has broken the ice between the West and Russia, ending the West's isolation of Russia. This phone call indicates that "contact between the Kremlin and Western powers may increase" following the election of President Trump.
It's not easy to make contact, and there are three considerations. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO countries, led by Germany, have consistently maintained a tough stance towards Russia. Scholz's initiative to break the deadlock and be the first among the major Western countries to engage in dialogue with Putin was chosen at a very subtle timing. Specifically, there are three main considerations.
The Re-election of the King of Understanding. Recently, the man across the Atlantic who has caused concern in the German and European political arenas has returned. On the date in local time, Trump announced his victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly emphasized that he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours after his victory. Now that the new U.S. government does not support continuing the conflict, is it a bit self-defeating for Germany to cling to outdated policies and insist on a tough stance against Russia?
Rupture of the governing coalition. On the designated date, Scholz announced the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who subsequently led the FDP to withdraw from the current coalition government. This means that Scholz's SPD, along with the Greens and the FDP, has officially disintegrated, leaving the current government as a minority in the Bundestag. On the designated date in this year, the German Bundestag will conduct a vote of confidence in Scholz's government. According to the German Basic Law, if the Chancellor fails to pass the confidence vote, the Bundestag can be dissolved upon the Chancellor's recommendation. A new Bundestag election must be held within 21 days, with the date already tentatively set for next January. Under immense pressure, Scholz must make this call to prove that the current government has the capability and willingness to improve the current diplomatic predicament, in order to retain his position as Chancellor of Germany.
Changes in German public opinion. Currently, improving relations with Russia is also gaining increasing support among European citizens. In terms of aid to Ukraine, Germans are already clearly overstretched. If Trump comes to power and refuses to continue aiding Ukraine, then all the burdens will fall on the Europeans. Germany cannot afford it, and public opinion will reverse sharply, so Scholz must prepare early.
Zelensky, furious on the spot. Some are chatting happily, while others are secretly heartbroken. Although the German government claimed to have informed Ukraine in advance about the arrangement of this call between Germany and Russia, this move still broke the defense of Ukrainian President Zelensky. Zelensky expressed anger at Scholz's actions, believing that the latter "opened Pandora's box," which could lead other leaders to also call Putin. On the day of the month, Zelensky posted on social media to condemn Scholz's call with Putin. Over the past two years, almost all Western countries have stood behind Ukraine, providing financial and material support to help Ukraine resist Russia. However, Scholz's call clearly caused a crack in the Western "anti-Russian united front." It is obvious that the time left for Zelensky is running out...