As more and more automobile companies and battery companies compete to deploy large cylindrical batteries, they are gradually moving from the production capacity preparation stage to the mass production stage, and are expected to truly leverage the market in 2024.

Large cylindrical batteries are favored by enterprises for their excellent performance, and many companies have successively entered this field to promote their development. The reporter noticed that since the beginning of this year, many companies such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Tesla have successively announced the latest progress of their large cylindrical batteries. In fact, many industry insiders had previously predicted that 2023 would be the first year of mass production of large cylindrical batteries. However, due to factors such as process, the mass production time of large cylindrical batteries has been pushed back and forth. Industry insiders believe that as more and more automobile companies and battery companies compete to deploy large-cylindrical batteries, they are gradually moving from the production capacity preparation stage to the mass production stage, and are expected to truly leverage the market in 2024.

One after another, competing to enter the game

According to the "White Paper on the Development of China Cylindrical Lithium Ion Battery Industry (2024)" (hereinafter referred to as "White Paper") jointly released by EVTank, Ivy Economic Research Institute and China Battery Industry Research Institute, global shipments of cylindrical lithium-ion batteries increased slightly by 3.5% to 12.37 billion in 2023 compared with the same period last year. EVTank analysis believes that one of the main driving forces for the growth of global cylindrical battery shipments in 2023 is that the growth of electric vehicle sales represented by Tesla led to the growth of EV cylindrical shipments. The large cylindrical battery was first "carried by Tesla". Tesla has been promoting its mass production and loading process since the 4680 battery was released in September 2020. Compared with the 2170 battery, the single energy of the 4680 battery is 5 times higher. Tesla said in January this year that this year will become an important year of capacity growth for 4680 cylindrical batteries, and four new 4680 battery production lines will be built in the third quarter of 2024. In fact, in addition to Tesla, a number of Chinese enterprises are also intensive layout of large cylindrical batteries. On January 31st, Jianghuai Ruifeng RF8 with Yiwei lithium energy large cylindrical battery was officially put on the market, becoming another mass-produced model with large cylindrical battery after Jianghuai Yttrium 3 and Tesla Cybertruck. Yiwei LiNeng recently said:"There are already two customers from state-owned enterprises using the company's large cylindrical products, mainly PHEV. We expect that more car companies will use them in the future, and more and more of the company's 46 series large cylindrical batteries will be loaded." In addition, in January, Xinwangda said that the company's large cylindrical battery is conducting research and development with customers and is at the pilot level, and will gradually deploy production capacity according to customer needs; in the same month, Hengtai's new generation of all-polar ears in China-Korea (Huizhou) Industrial Park The ear large cylindrical battery project was officially put into operation. It is reported that this project is currently the second mass production line of 46 series large cylindrical all-pole lug batteries in China. The main product is all-pole lug 46135LFP batteries, with an annual production capacity of 1GWh; in November 2023, China Innovation Airlines stated that it will In the fourth quarter of 2024, mass production of 46 series 6C charging rate large cylindrical batteries was achieved. It is understood that at present, there are many domestic and foreign battery companies that have deployed or planned large cylindrical battery camps, such as Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, LG New Energy, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, BAK Battery, and Vision Power.

Unsolved process problems

按照封装形式划分，动力电池可分为方形、软包、圆柱3类。对于圆柱电池的优势，伊维经济研究院研究部总经理、中国电池产业研究院院长吴辉表示：“圆柱电池生产自动化程度高，标准较为统一，后期的能量密度也会较高，并且制造成本相对软包等也会更低。” 大型化是圆柱电池发展的必经之路。据了解，大圆柱电芯体积变大，需要的电池单体数量下降，焊接配件相应减少，提高电池成组效率，简化BMS管理难度；在性能方面，大圆柱电池较大的尺寸使得金属外壳占比降低、正负极活性材料的比例上升，能量密度提高。“大圆柱电池单体比小圆柱电池要大5—6倍，系统集成难度相对较低，集成效率会更高。未来大圆柱电池可大量应用于中高端车型中。”吴辉表示。 而对于三元大圆柱电池的优势，亿纬锂能认为：“结构上，圆柱电池在生命周期内不会膨胀，结构稳定性相对最优，安全性能更高。性能上，全极耳设计使电池内阻更低，且三元电池低温性能、快充性能更好。成本上，从材料采购成本来看，三元相比磷酸铁锂会贵一点，但如果把回收算进去，具备规模后，三元的成本也具备优势。” 不过，目前受工艺因素制约，大圆柱电池的良品率不及小圆柱电池，使得大圆柱电池尚处于小批量出货，未能成熟大规模量产。“目前大圆柱电池的难点在于工艺，主要体现在全极耳的制造效率和产品直通率，这是影响大圆柱电池能否量产的关键。”欣旺达相关负责人2023年9月表示。

Dynamic storage two-wheel drive

It is worth noting that with the overcapacity of the battery industry and the acceleration of technological innovation, the competition among enterprises is also extremely fierce. According to the White Paper, from the perspective of the competitive pattern of major cylindrical battery companies in 2023, the industry concentration has further increased, with the combined market share of the top three South Korean LGES, Japan Panasonic and South Korean SDI increasing by 10.1%. The market share of domestic Yiwei LiNeng and Hengdian Dongji increased by 0.1% and 1.2% respectively, while the rest showed a decline in varying degrees. In the view of people in the industry, once the large cylindrical battery is mass produced on a large scale, it will become a strong competitor to the square power battery. However, enterprises should first solve process problems, improve product yield, and break the situation through technological innovation in order to further promote the process of mass production of large cylindrical batteries and increase market share. Although the development of large cylindrical battery is not as expected at present, the industry is still optimistic about the development of large cylindrical battery. In fact, in addition to electric cars, the increase in household storage demand is also one of the growth drivers of shipments of large cylindrical batteries in 2023. In Wu Hui's view, the market share of large cylindrical batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage will certainly increase in the future. According to Huatai Securities Research report, the installed capacity of large cylindrical batteries in the world is expected to reach 429GWh in 2027, corresponding to a market size of 214.48 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 110.7% in 2023-2027. It is expected that the installed capacity of storage batteries in large cylindrical households worldwide will reach 21.7 GWhH in 2023-2027 with an average compound annual growth rate of 168.0%.