The Pragmatic Turn and the Myth of Global Influence from a Think Tank Perspective - A Detailed Analysis of the U.S. National Security Strategy (Part 4)

The release of the Trump administration's National Security Strategy report has once again sparked in-depth discussions and intense debates within the American strategic community. Based on the core viewpoints of mainstream think tanks such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Atlantic Council, this article provides a systematic interpretation of the report's strategic core, its shifting logic, and the challenges in its implementation, while analyzing its potential impact on the global geopolitical landscape.

I. Overall Assessment of the Report: Strategic Shift and Deep Concerns

(1) Core Qualitative Assessment: A Fundamental Shift in Foreign Policy

以CSIS《国家安全战略亮点不足于警示》一文的核心观点为核心脉络，多家主流智库的共识是，该报告标志着美国外交政策在Ideological orientation与Practical Action Logic上的Fundamental reshaping。特朗普政府试图借这份报告确立一套全新的**“美国优先”**外交政策框架，搭建起区别于以往的外交新范式。

(II) Characteristics of the New Paradigm and Key Expressions

这一新范式深度内嵌Pragmatism基因，但也遭到不少智库的尖锐质疑，被认为存在Short-sightedness defect。报告中的关键表述清晰勾勒出其政策导向：其一，"The democratic agenda has clearly come to an end."，彻底抛弃了此前美国外交中以民主输出为核心的意识形态执念；其二，外交政策的取舍将完全围绕**“实现美国更强盛、更繁荣”**这一核心目标展开。

对此，批评者担忧，这种以“自私”为内核的政策选择，可能导致美国未来More lonely, weak, and divided.，损害其长期全球影响力。

II. Policy towards Europe: Severe Criticism and the Demand for "Self-Reliance"

(1) Basic Attitude: Highlighting Shock and Disagreement

智库群体普遍判断，这份报告对欧洲而言堪称**“直击痛点、令人警醒的警钟”It profoundly reflects the vast chasm between Europe's self-perception and the strategic expectations of the Trump administration. The core message conveyed by the report is straightforward and clear: it demands that Europe“自主掌控自身周边事务，并独立承担相应成本”**，本质上是向欧洲施压，迫使其实现战略自立。

(II) Core Criticism: Harsh Accusations at the Civilizational Level

The most alarming part of the report for Europe is its critique of Europe's "civilizational identity." The report accuses Europe of **"losing its European character,"** implying an underlying tendency to stoke fears about immigration. It also insists on an "idealized old-world Europe" perspective—a view that think tank scholars have described as "questionable."

报告明确列举了欧洲所谓的“危机清单”，包括：欧盟等跨国机构侵蚀政治自由与国家主权；移民政策引发冲突；存在言论自由审查与政治反对派镇压现象；出生率暴跌；民族认同与自信丧失。报告警告，若上述趋势持续，欧洲大陆将在20年内Completely unrecognizable.。

(3) U.S. Objectives Toward Europe and Think Tank Responses

美国的对欧目标并非削弱欧洲，而是“帮助欧洲修正当前的轨迹”，打造一个Powerful Europe协助美国参与全球竞争，并协同防止任何对手主宰欧洲。更极端的是，报告暗示未来某些北约国家可能转为以非欧洲人口为主，这将对其北约身份和与美联盟关系构成悬而未解的问题（相关表述被戏称为“法国斯坦”“德国斯坦”）。

智库对此反应强烈：CSIS作者认为，这些对欧洲文化的指责Strongly inclined towards rhetoric that encompasses the far-right.，只会让普京心花怒放，让布鲁塞尔如坐针毡；布鲁金斯学会专家则尖锐指出，报告声称“欧洲文明被抹去”，其本身才是在抹杀欧洲文明。

III. Policy towards China: Continuation of Confrontation and the Layout of the "Axis of Resistance"

(1) China's Divergent "Likes and Dislikes" Regarding the Report

从中国视角来看，报告存在两类截然不同的内容：一类是可能令中国感到欣慰的部分，即明确声明美国倾向于Non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.以及Respect national sovereignty.，这或许能缓解中国对政权稳定的担忧；另一类则是中国明确反感的内容，包括Call for withdrawal from Latin America以及A strong deterrence policy.。

(2) Core Strategy: The "Axis of Resistance" Containment

The report clearly defines the United States' core strategy for engaging with China in the Asia-Pacific region—establishing a **"arc of resistance"** system that coordinates allies and partners to encircle and contain China. The formulation of this strategy stems from a thorough rejection and reflection by the U.S. strategic community on the previous path of "engagement" with China.

(3) Think Tank Consensus: Consistency and Vigilance in the Pivot to China

多家智库达成共识：报告Correctly point out以往对华**“接触”政策失败**，认为此前尝试与中国合作、乐观看待其崛起的态度是**“天真的”**。美国战略学界对华反华态度高度一致，且普遍认可报告中的对华部分。值得警惕的是，尽管有智库质疑美国能否当好“抵抗之弧”的“领头虎”，但对方高层普遍认为这套策略行之有效。

IV. Economy and Domestic Priorities: Growth-Oriented and the End of the Democratic Agenda

(1) Core Economic Logic and Implementation Challenges

报告构建了“经济赋能-国内强盛-海外竞胜”的递进式逻辑链条：美国需率先实现Competitive advantage in the field of trade.，才能筑牢国内强盛的根基；而国内的稳定强盛，又将为海外层面的战略竞争提供坚实支撑。但这一逻辑的落地面临现实梗阻，如何搭建合理的贸易协作体系、推动制造业回流、保障关键矿产与资源安全，成为政策设计与实践落地需破解的核心难题。

(2) Specific Implementation Measures

为落实经济优先目标，报告提出多项具体措施：一是呼吁美国政府与私营部门Closer cooperation；二是明确每位大使都要成为Advocate for American businesses，这意味着美国可能利用自身影响力，为关键矿产等利益向第三世界国家施压。

(III) The End of the Democratic Agenda

与经济议程的凸显形成鲜明对比的是，报告对民主议题的定位发生根本性转变，The prospects for democracy, however, are far bleaker.。报告将民主视为**“锦上添花的东西”rather than the core vision of building a peaceful world by empowering independent citizens, signifying“世界主义没有，三十年的启蒙失败”**。

V. Policies towards Other Regions: A Shift from Ideology to Pragmatism

Latin America: Cooperation-Oriented with Priority on Interests

U.S. policy toward Latin America has moved away from ideological constraints, clearly stating that it will reward governments that largely align with American principles. At the same time, **"we cannot overlook those governments that hold different views from us but still share common interests and are willing to cooperate,"** demonstrating a purely interest-driven approach.

(2) The Middle East: Close Cooperation Without Preaching

在中东地区，美国将直接与海湾君主国紧密合作，Give up preaching to them.——只要能达成合作，即使是独裁政权也不会受到美国的压力。这与里根政府时期的对中东政策形成差异：里根与不合意政权合作是为了“防共”，而特朗普政府则是为了“反华”。

(3) North Korea: Deliberate Avoidance and Flexible Reservation

报告的显著特点之一是North Korea and nuclear non-proliferation were not directly mentioned.，这与以往美国国家安全战略形成鲜明对比。智库解读认为，这一遗漏可能是特朗普为Further contacts between North Korea and the United States set the stage for future developments.，体现了其对朝政策的Flexibility。对朝鲜而言，这一态度可使其获得与美国进一步接触的外交灵活性；对美国而言，则能赢得在亚太地区保持存在、拉拢盟友的新外交突破口。

VI. Summary of Core Perspectives from Various Think Tanks

(1) Atlantic Council: Affirms Position on Taiwan Strait, Criticizes Abandonment of Principles

The think tank believes the report's success lies in its firm support for the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, preventing hostile forces from dominating critical regions; its failure, however, is its rejection of previously effective core principles, such as supporting allies and promoting democracy and human rights. The think tank suggests that the United States should pay greater attention to the interconnected threats posed by the **"alliance of authoritarian states"** (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea), while ensuring that national security relies on a secure Western Hemisphere and promoting the U.S. return to key regions within it (the Panama Canal, Greenland, the Caribbean, and South America).

(2) Council on Foreign Relations: Criticizing internal contradictions, focusing on positioning towards China

该智库指出，报告存在Internal inconsistency and arbitrariness.的问题，集中体现了特朗普Impulsive and unpredictable的个人特性。在西半球政策上，报告意识形态色彩淡化，为与专制国家合作留下空间，可能实现与巴西、智利等左翼化国家的共存。在对华竞争方面，智库关注到一个关键变化：中国No longer regarded as a systemic challenge.，而仅聚焦于台海问题；同时，报告对台湾的描述存在**“工具化”**倾向，难以获得台湾民众认可。

(3) Brookings Institution: Questioning Strategic Effectiveness, Criticizing Attitudes Towards Europe and Russia

该智库认为，新战略It did not resolve any major power competition issues.，美国可能因此Abandon global competition in certain fields.，甚至引发对“美帝”概念的质疑。在对俄政策上，俄罗斯被**“赦免但被削弱”The content of the report pleased Moscow, suggesting that the United States and Russia may reach some agreement on nuclear issues.“红线”。报告的另一大遗漏令人不安：Canada and Mexico were not mentioned.，有专家调侃“不会真想吞并吧？”。此外，智库强烈批判报告加剧了“巨大的跨大西洋分歧”，其背后体现出“对俄罗斯媾和而希望毁灭欧洲”**的意识形态，彻底否定了美国过去80年处理国际事务的方式，仅在预算层面能为美国解绑大量资源。

(IV) Modern Diplomacy: A Superpower Positioning Centered on Economic Competition

该机构认为，美国通过这份报告重新定义了超级大国形象，其核心目标是与主要竞争对手展开Economic competition，而非实质性的Military competition，军事力量仅作为辅助手段。

VII. Reflection on Strategic Feasibility: A Case Study of U.S. Military Equipment Development

特朗普政府的战略转型虽有明确方向，但可行性面临严峻挑战，美军新型中型登陆艇的研发案例便极具代表性，集中暴露了美国军事项目的Cost out of control和Rigid processes问题。

Initially, the Marine Corps' requirement for the landing craft was based on civilian standards, with a budget of $0.1 billion. However, after the Navy intervened, additional demands such as military specifications, air defense capabilities, and increased speed were continuously introduced, driving the cost up to $0.2 billion. Ultimately, the defense production sector quoted a price of $0.3 billion to achieve profitability.

The fundamental issue revealed by this case is the drawback of the "unlimited client" phenomenon: relevant departments arbitrarily impose demands and modify designs, leading to a project that becomes overly complex and ultimately teeters on the brink of collapse. Similar problems have also been observed in projects such as the Constellation-class ships and others.

值得注意的是，即使是反对特朗普理念的人，也部分认同其Reducing costs, producing simple equipment, curbing military spending waste.的务实方向。但战略转型的关键在于，能否改变“无脑甲方乱提要求”的做事流程，这一流程顽疾的根治程度，直接影响战略落地效果。

Eight, Overall Conclusion and Assessment

综合来看，特朗普政府《国家安全战略》报告堪称美国全球战略的一次重大转向，具备清晰的行动导向，其影响力将辐射全球多个地缘板块：对中国而言，Definitely not good news.，需重点警惕“抵抗之弧”布局及各类“拖后腿”策略；对欧洲而言，The situation is even more severe.，既要承受来自盟友的严厉批判，还面临被“边缘化”的风险；对俄罗斯而言，这无疑It is a major positive development.，战略压力将显著缓解；对全球而言，这一转向可能加剧国际秩序的动荡，推动全球进入More unstable and tending towards chaos.的发展阶段。

报告暴露的核心矛盾是美国战略上**“有决心，没能力”The success of its strategic transformation depends not only on whether Trump can maintain and implement Hagerty's reform philosophy but also on whether it can fundamentally address the chronic issue of "endless escalation" in the U.S. military and bureaucratic processes. As analysis points out, the key to solving this problem may lie in:“先把你无限加码里面的人抓出来，改一改，逼一逼，试到试到再说吧。”**