Iran: Comprehensive Crisis and Risk of Collapse under Theocratic Rule

Today's Iran is no longer grappling with localized social tensions but is mired in a comprehensive crisis spanning the economy, society, politics, and foreign affairs. From the waves of protests on the streets of Tehran to the complete collapse of its monetary system, from the shaking of its theocratic stronghold to the intertwined games of international powers, this nation with a history of four decades of theocratic rule now stands at a crossroads of destiny. The evolution of its situation not only concerns the well-being of its own people but will also profoundly impact global geopolitics and the energy landscape.

I. Economic Collapse: From Currency Halving to Survival Crisis

The core of Iran's crisis originates from the complete loss of control over its economic system, with currency devaluation and hyperinflation serving as the most direct manifestations, pushing ordinary people to the brink of survival.

The cliff-like collapse of the monetary system.

伊朗官方货币里亚尔（Rial）的贬值速度堪称惊人。1979年伊斯兰革命前，里亚尔兑美元汇率约为7:1，而到2026年初，德黑兰黑市数据显示，The US dollar can now be exchanged for the rial.。尤为致命的是，在2025年中至2026年初的短短半年内，汇率从7.5万里亚尔兑1美元暴跌至140万里亚尔兑1美元，这意味着The value of Iran's sovereign currency has been halved within six months, causing the purchasing power of ordinary households' wealth to evaporate by half in an instant.。

货币崩溃直接导致民众购买力急剧萎缩。德黑兰一个普通工人的月薪约为1亿里亚尔，按黑市汇率换算仅相当于70美元；而1公斤红肉的价格高达2000万-2500万里亚尔（约15-18美元），这意味着An ordinary family spends nearly a quarter of their monthly salary just to buy a kilogram of meat.。更极端的是，在最低月工资仅8000万里亚尔的背景下，一袋大米的售价飙升至1700万里亚尔，An adult works hard for a month, only to afford about a pound of rice to sustain basic survival.。

The vicious cycle of hyperinflation and economic stagnation.

货币贬值的背后，是恶性通货膨胀的肆虐。短短几个月内，Iran's food prices have risen by %, drug prices have increased by %, and the officially announced inflation rate has reached .%.，而民众体感的痛苦指数远高于此。通胀的加剧直接引发了商业停滞，德黑兰著名的大巴扎爆发罕见罢市，商家因汇率变动过快（上午售价5万，下午成本就涨到8万）而无法正常经营，只能选择关门歇业。

经济的崩溃进一步加剧了社会撕裂。Ordinary people have to scavenge for food in garbage dumps just to survive, while the privileged elite—such as the children of high-ranking officials in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)—drive Porsches and Ferraris in the affluent northern districts of Tehran, with mansions that even include private zoos.。这种极端的贫富差距，彻底撕裂了民众与政权之间的社会契约。

II. Root of the Crisis: The Dual Strangulation of External Sanctions and Internal Mismanagement

The comprehensive collapse of Iran's economy is not caused by a single factor, but rather by the combined effects of escalating external sanctions and internal policy failures, as well as structural deficiencies, creating a dual stranglehold that is difficult to break.

External Trigger: The Comprehensive Blockade of International Sanctions

2025年9月，联合国重新启动“快速恢复制裁机制”（Snapback），对伊朗实施了全面且严厉的国际制裁。制裁的核心是Completely block Iran's financial settlement and oil export channels.，使其无法通过全球银行和运输保险公司进行正常交易，这对于高度依赖石油出口的伊朗而言，无疑是釜底抽薪。

Previously, Iran had circumvented sanctions by covertly shipping oil through a "ghost fleet" composed of old, decommissioned vessels. However, as the global oil market shifted to a buyer's market, oversupply allowed buyers to drive down prices. Some buyers even halted purchases due to dissatisfaction with Iran's geopolitical stance, leading to the complete failure of the "shadow fleet" evasion strategy. The sharp decline in oil revenue directly severed Iran's primary channel for obtaining foreign exchange.

More critically, after former U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, he adopted an unprecedentedly severe strategy of containment and blockade against Iran, further constricting Iran's fiscal maneuvering room. The U.S. State Department explicitly stated that it would continue to intensify sanctions until Iran changes its behavior, leaving the Iranian government with almost no external channels to alleviate the hardships faced by its people.

Internal Fatal Flaws: Structural Deficiencies and Policy Missteps

The intensification of external sanctions has exposed the long-standing structural flaws in Iran's economy. Compared to Russia, another major oil-producing country, Iran's economic structure is far more singular and has failed to undergo effective adjustments. Russia began actively revitalizing its agriculture around the turn of the century, enabling it to safeguard basic livelihoods even under sanctions. In contrast, Iran's agricultural economy remains fragile due to geographical constraints. Coupled with persistent internal conflicts between conservatives and pro-Western factions, as well as excessive focus on Middle Eastern affairs, the country has consistently failed to improve its economic structure.

More alarmingly, Iran has developed a "peculiar import dependency model." Since its relationship with the United States broke down and sanctions were imposed in the last century, Iran's civilian economy has not reduced its reliance on imports but has instead seen a continuous increase. From food to basic daily industrial goods, a large number of essential survival items need to be imported. With the U.S. dollar serving as the primary settlement currency in global trade, importing these necessities requires substantial foreign exchange reserves. This has left Iran facing severe shortages of essential supplies as soon as its access to foreign exchange channels was cut off.

Faced with a shortage of foreign exchange and fiscal deficits, the Iranian government resorted to its most lethal countermeasure—recklessly printing money. To sustain basic expenditures such as civil servant salaries and military costs, the government issued currency without restraint, ultimately leading to uncontrollable inflation and a complete collapse of the monetary system. Meanwhile, the Iranian government had nearly a decade to adjust its economic structure, but the ruling class was preoccupied with internal power struggles and expanding its regional hegemony in the Middle East, entirely neglecting this core issue that truly concerns the nation's survival.

Core Deep-Seated Conflict: The Clash Between Nuclear Weapons and the Unspoken Rules of International Politics

国际制裁的背后，是伊朗的核野心与国际政治“潜规则”的根本冲突。The United States recently made it clear that if Iran takes any nuclear action, it will destroy Iran. Meanwhile, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council () share a highly consistent stance—firmly preventing nuclear proliferation.。核武器在国际政治中被视为最高等级的“会员卡”，不经五常同意不得随意发放，这是伊朗无法逾越的红线。

Compared to other nuclear-armed states, Iran’s path to nuclear weapons is even less feasible: Israel, as a staunch ally of the United States, adopts a policy of "nuclear ambiguity" (neither confirming nor denying possession), which is tacitly accepted by the U.S. North Korea achieved its nuclear capability at the cost of a "March of Suffering"–style famine and economic isolation from the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, acquired its nuclear technology through the clandestine network of its "father of the bomb" and its nuclear status was tacitly tolerated by major powers to balance the situation in South Asia.

Iran's national conditions determine that it cannot afford the cost of possessing nuclear weapons. On one hand, Iran is an oil-producing country with an economy highly dependent on global trade. If its settlement systems and oil exports are cut off due to nuclear ambitions, it would inevitably face dire straits. On the other hand, if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would trigger chain reactions from regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, leading to chaos in the Middle East and endangering the global petrodollar system—a scenario no major power wishes to see. Even Russia, which cooperates with Iran to counter the West, is reluctant to see a nuclear-armed Iran competing for energy market share or an uncontrollable nuclear power emerging in its traditional sphere of influence in the Middle East and Central Asia. As a result, Russia has always held back in its military assistance to Iran, such as in the provision of air defense systems.

III. Social Unrest: From Escalating Protests to Shaken Foundations of Regime

The economic collapse directly triggered the disintegration of social order, with protests spreading from local areas to the entire nation and escalating from moderate demands to calls for regime change, shaking the very foundations of the theocratic rule.

The fundamental shift in the nature of protests: from pursuing freedom to fighting for survival.

The current protests in Iran are no longer a simple continuation of the "headscarf protests" from previous years, nor are they solely driven by university students' pursuit of freedom. Instead, they have evolved into a nationwide protest over a survival crisis. The main participants taking to the streets are now the working class and the middle class, fighting to make ends meet. In the industrial hub of Isfahan, the protesters' slogans have shifted dramatically from the "calls for reform" of a few years ago to **"This year is the year of bloodshed, and the regime of Ali Khamenei will surely fall."** This marks a complete breakdown of trust between the people and the authorities.

Unlike previous peaceful demonstrations, the current protests have shown a clear tendency towards escalating violence, with frequent occurrences such as attacks on government buildings, burning portraits of religious leaders, and seizing weapons in some areas. "The sense of fear is fading away" has become a prominent feature of Iranian society today. When people feel they have nothing left to lose, they become fearless, and the intensity of the protests continues to escalate accordingly.

The Fall of the Divine Fortress: Protest Waves in the Holy City

Qom, as a holy city for the Shia, is home to senior clerics and serves as the spiritual fortress of Iran’s theocracy. For years, it has been regarded as the regime’s most solid stronghold. However, large-scale protests have now erupted on the streets of Qom, with demonstrators chanting **"clerics, get lost"** and pro-monarchy slogans in front of seminaries. When the theocratic rule is rejected by the people in its core stronghold, it signifies that the foundation of its legitimacy has been completely hollowed out.

The Shake-up of the Coercive Apparatus: Signs of Defection Emerge

政权的稳定，离不开强力部门的支撑，但当前伊朗的基层执法力量已出现动摇。在库赫达什特（Kuhdasht），当地警察和安全部队在面对示威人群时，Refusing to carry out the order to open fire, and even some law enforcement officers retreated.。基层执法人员之所以出现忠诚度动摇，核心原因在于他们也是经济崩溃的受害者，微薄的工资无法养家糊口，自然难以再全力维护政权。

To fill the loyalty gap within the internal security forces, Iranian authorities have begun mobilizing non-local armed forces, even Shiite militias from abroad, to carry out suppression. This method of "using external armed forces to suppress local populations" not only fails to fundamentally quell the protests but further intensifies ethnic conflicts, pushing the situation into a more uncontrollable state.

The shift in public sentiment: nostalgia for the former dynasty and despair over the current situation.

Amid the protest crowds, chants of **"Reza Pahlavi ( ) returns"** have emerged. Reza Pahlavi is the son of Iran's last monarch and currently lives in exile abroad. The appearance of such calls does not necessarily mean that the people fully understand or yearn to return to the pre-revolutionary system of over four decades ago; rather, it reflects a projection of despair toward the current situation. People have begun to reminisce about the era before the revolution, when Iran was one of the wealthiest and most open countries in the Middle East. By idealizing the past to negate the present, they are expressing the most profound rejection of the existing theocratic republican system.

History is repeating itself in a striking manner. Before the Islamic Revolution erupted in 1979, the Pahlavi dynasty was losing support from the middle and lower classes due to widening wealth gaps, political corruption, and the suppression of dissent. Today, decades later, the Islamic Republic faces nearly identical accusations—privileges for a select few, systemic corruption, and indifference to the suffering of the majority. This cycle of history further undermines the legitimacy of the regime.

IV. International Gameplay: The Interweaving and Contest of Multiple Forces

Iran's internal crisis has become a focal point in the global geopolitical game. Major powers and regional players such as Russia, the United States, and Israel have all intervened, with the struggles among various forces further complicating the already turbulent situation in Iran, creating a powder keg interwoven with multiple parties.

Russia's Emergency Blood Transfusion: Support Under the Bond of Interests

俄罗斯与伊朗存在深度的利益捆绑，其中最核心的是Drone Technology Supply Chain – Iran's drones are crucial to Russia's operations on the battlefield in Ukraine.。若伊朗现政权倒台，俄罗斯在乌克兰战场的供应链将受到严重冲击。因此，在伊朗局势岌岌可危之际，俄罗斯选择紧急出手支援。

Based on flight tracking and satellite imagery, during the critical period of escalating tensions in Iran, heavy transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces frequently landed at Iranian air force bases, conducting high-density airlift operations. External speculation suggests that the supplies transported by Russia may include riot control equipment for suppressing unrest, as well as electronic warfare systems and air defense components for defending against potential airstrikes from Israel or the United States. Russia’s emergency support has provided the current Iranian regime with temporary breathing space but has also further tied Iran to its own strategic agenda.

Pressure from the United States and Israel: Dual Pressure of Sanctions and Military Threats

美国与以色列则站在伊朗现政权的对立面，持续施加高压。美国的核心手段是强化制裁，通过全面封锁金融和石油渠道，压缩伊朗的财政空间，让伊朗政府无法通过改善民生来平息抗议。而以色列的手段则更为直接——军事威胁。Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has clearly warned that follow-up strikes on Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure are not ruled out.。

Amid Iran's internal turmoil, external military strikes could serve as "the straw that breaks the camel's back," completely ending the current regime. On the other hand, such external threats could also be exploited by Tehran authorities to divert internal conflicts by inciting nationalist sentiments, temporarily uniting public support. The United States might also leverage satellite technology to provide Iranian citizens with uncensored internet access, enhancing protesters' organizational capabilities and international visibility, further exacerbating Iran's internal instability.

V. Future Direction: Death Spiral and Key Observation Indicators

Present-day Iran is trapped in a **deadly spiral of "crackdown–money printing–inflation–more intense protests"**: the government needs to pay more for security measures to suppress protests, forcing it to print more money; this further fuels inflation, increasing the pressure on people's livelihoods and triggering larger-scale, more intense protests. This spiral is accelerating downward, and key indicators in the coming weeks will determine the fate of the Iranian regime.

Three key observation indicators

1. 能源产业工人的动向：The oil workers' strike was the final straw that broke the back of the Pahlavi dynasty.。伊朗的石油产业是国家财政的命脉，若关键能源部门的工人发动大罢工，将彻底断绝政府的财政来源。目前已有能源产业工人零星罢工的报道，若罢工规模扩大，政权将面临致命打击。
2. 正规军的态度：目前伊朗的镇压主力是隶属于伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）的巴斯基（Basij）民兵和特警。历史上相对独立的伊朗正规军，其立场至关重要。If the regular army declares neutrality or if there is a large-scale defection, the fate of the current Iranian regime will be sealed.。
3. 通信网络控制权：政府为了阻止抗议者串联，正大面积切断互联网。而美国是否会通过卫星技术为伊朗民众提供替代网络接入，将直接影响示威者的组织能力和国际关注度。If the public obtains stable internet support, it will be more difficult to suppress protest activities; conversely, if the government successfully cuts off all communication channels, the protests may gradually subside due to a loss of organization.。

Geostrategic impact

无论伊朗局势最终走向何方，其动荡都将波及整个中东乃至全球。首先，The security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may not be guaranteed—the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global oil transportation route, with approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil passing through it.，其安全一旦受影响，将直接引发全球能源危机。其次，全球油价将面临剧烈波动，影响主要工业国的经济稳定。最后，伊朗的局势将重塑中东地区的力量格局，没有任何一个大国能够置身事外。

VI. Conclusion: The Twilight of Theocracy and an Uncertain Future

2026年初的伊朗，正处于神权统治的黄昏时刻。The complete economic collapse has triggered a nationwide survival crisis, with social unrest spreading from the margins to the core, and the legitimacy of the theocratic rule has been fundamentally shaken. The dual stranglehold of external sanctions and internal policy failures has plunged Iran into an inescapable death spiral. The intertwined maneuvers of international powers have further intensified the complexity and uncertainty of the situation.。

伊朗的未来，正由无数个体的生存抗争与多方势力的博弈共同书写。是现政权通过高压镇压与外部支援勉强维持，还是在民众的抗议浪潮中走向终结？是陷入长期的内乱与分裂，还是在动荡后迎来新的变革？无论结果如何，这场危机都已深刻改变了伊朗的国家轨迹，也将在全球地缘政治史上留下浓重的一笔。对于伊朗民众而言，What they desire is nothing more than basic survival guarantees and dignity, which lies at the heart of the current turbulent situation and is also key to whether Iran can achieve stability in the future.。