Electricity prices have skyrocketed, so dismantle wind turbines and dig coal mines? A deep dive into the Germans' "environmental myth."

For a long time, Germany has been regarded as a global benchmark for environmental protection and energy transition, and its "Energiewende" strategy was once held in high hopes. However, the implementation of a series of radical policies and the impact of geopolitics have plunged this environmental experiment into multiple crises. From dismantling wind turbines to mine highly polluting lignite, to electricity prices soaring tenfold triggering industrial relocation, Germany's environmental myth is gradually fading, exposing a profound rift between environmental ideals and energy reality, also providing a highly cautionary sample for the global energy transition.

I. The Core Contradiction: The Violent Collision Between Environmental Ideals and Energy Reality

1.1 The Ironic Reversal of Dismantling Wind Turbines to Mine Lignite

The contradictory nature of Germany's energy transition is vividly reflected in the act of "dismantling wind turbines to mine lignite." Lignite, as one of the most polluting and highest carbon-emitting fossil fuels, should be a key target for restriction under environmental policies, yet wind power, a core form of clean energy, is being dismantled to make way for lignite mining. This act is aptly compared to "dismantling the temple pillars and burning the coffin wood to offer the strongest incense to Buddha," ironically revealing the disconnect between Germany's environmental goals and its actual actions.

1.2 Extreme Bipolar Fluctuations in Electricity Prices

Germany's current power system exhibits severe "schizophrenic" and "bipolar" characteristics, with electricity prices swinging violently between extreme lows and extreme highs:

• **Extreme Low Prices:** During some periods, due to an oversupply of renewable electricity, prices fall below the floor price or even turn negative, forcing power plants to pay users to consume electricity;
• **Extreme High Prices:** In December 2024, affected by a two-day "dark doldrums" period with no wind and no sunlight, Germany's electricity spot price skyrocketed to 936 euros per megawatt-hour, about 10 times the usual price. This increase is equivalent to gasoline at 7 yuan per liter suddenly jumping to 70 yuan per liter, imposing a heavy burden on businesses and residents.

II. Radical Decisions: The "Opening Move" of Energy Transition by Abandoning Nuclear Power

2.1 The Former Nuclear Power Giant's Foundation

Germany was once a top global nuclear power, with its first nuclear power plant connected to the grid in 1961, more than 30 years earlier than China. At its peak, nuclear power contributed over 30% of Germany's electricity, serving as the vital heart powering "Made in Germany," providing stable, low-cost energy support for industrial development.

2.2 The Sharp Turn After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, anti-nuclear sentiment surged rapidly in Germany. Under public pressure, the Merkel government made a radical "energy transition" decision, explicitly planning to shut down all nuclear power plants by 2022. This decision lacked sufficient consideration for the stability of the energy system, sowing the seeds for subsequent energy crises.

2.3 The Complete Phase-Out of Nuclear Power

On April 15, 2023, Germany's last three nuclear power plants were officially shut down, reducing nuclear power to zero in its energy mix. This move deprived it of one of its most important stable power sources, significantly reducing the energy system's resilience to risks.

III. Underlying Motivations: Geopolitical Calculations Behind the Energy Transition

The environmental agenda represented by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, while appearing to be a global call for climate action, actually conceals a Western geopolitical "grand strategy," with the core logic being to reshape the global competitive landscape by "changing the playing field":

• **Changing the Playing Field for Competition:** On the traditional fossil fuel (oil, coal) playing field, the Western bloc struggles to compete with energy-exporting giants like Russia and the Middle East. Therefore, the West attempts to leverage its technological and financial advantages to define new "carbon neutrality" rules, forcibly pulling global energy development onto the new energy track;
• **Strategic Goal:** Once new energy rules become globally accepted, Russia's oil and the Middle East's natural gas would depreciate significantly. The West, holding environmental discourse power and core patents for new energy, would thereby regain global economic dominance, achieving the goal of "harvesting the world once again."

IV. Structural Dilemma: The Vulnerability of the Energy System Under Reliance on Wind and Solar

According to 2023 public data, Germany's energy structure suffers from severe problems of "inflated capacity" and "imbalance." Behind the seemingly massive installed capacity lies unstable and inefficient energy supply:

• **Inflated Installed Capacity:** Germany's total power generation capacity reaches 263.4 GW, but peak electricity demand is only about 80 GW. The installed capacity is over three times the actual demand, resulting in massive waste of energy infrastructure investment;
• **Severe Structural Imbalance:** Wind and solar power account for a high 65.5% of the total installed capacity. These energy sources are highly dependent on natural conditions, acting as unstable "temporary workers." Traditional energy sources like coal and gas power, which can guarantee stable supply, account for less than 25%, making it difficult to support the energy system's foundation;
• Low Equipment Efficiency: The 65.5% share of wind and solar installed capacity contributes only 43.7% of the electricity generated, indicating low capacity utilization. This "weather-dependent" energy supply model leads to frequent risks of supply-demand imbalance in the power system. The fact that renewables met only 18% of electricity demand during the winter 2024 "dark doldrums" period is the best evidence.

V. Collapse of a Key Pillar: The "Red Sausage" Effect of Cheap Russian Gas

5.1 The "Burn the Bridge After Crossing" Plan of Over-Reliance

Over the past two decades, the reason Germany's energy transition could maintain its "miracle" facade was heavily reliant on cheap Russian natural gas. The underlying logic was "use electricity when there's wind, use gas when there's none," treating Russian gas as a transitional bridge until the new energy system was built. Germany's announced "carbon neutrality timeline" essentially amounted to informing its energy supplier Russia in advance: "You can leave in ten years," full of speculation and risk.

5.2 The Fatal Weakness of the Energy Lifeline

The fatal flaw of this strategy was entrusting the nation's energy security lifeline to the hands of a geopolitical adversary, the Putin government. When Germany was at its most vulnerable moment—"nuclear power shut down, coal power just reduced, new energy not yet established"—Russia gained the ability to deliver a fatal blow to its energy system, completely ceding the initiative in energy security to others.

VI. Total Crisis Eruption: Chain Reactions After the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage

The 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage event became the trigger for the full-blown German energy crisis. The disappearance of the relied-upon cheap Russian gas, this "red sausage," triggered a series of chain reactions:

• **Direct Cause of Sky-High Prices:** During the "dark doldrums" on December 12, 2024, electricity demand surged. However, due to high gas prices, half of the gas-fired power plants were in deep shutdown and couldn't respond quickly to supplement supply, directly causing prices to skyrocket to the astronomical level of 936 euros per MWh;
• **High System Stabilization Costs:** To balance the instability of wind and solar generation, German grid operators must pay huge "redispatch" fees, which exceeded 3 billion euros in 2023 alone. This heavy cost is ultimately passed on entirely to consumers and industrial enterprises through electricity prices and taxes.

VII. Chain Disaster: From Energy Dependence to "Deindustrialization" Crisis

7.1 Reversal from Electricity Exporter to Major Importer

After the energy crisis erupted, Germany had to swallow its pride and import large amounts of expensive electricity from France (nuclear) and Nordic countries (hydro), which it had long criticized, achieving an embarrassing reversal from a European electricity exporter to its largest importer.

7.2 The Price of Being "Harvested" by Neighbors and the US

Under the European unified electricity market framework, Germany's high electricity prices directly raised price levels across Europe. Power companies in Norway, France, and others sold their low-cost electricity at Germany's high prices, reaping huge profits; the US also seized the opportunity to sell liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Germany at quadruple the price, further exacerbating Germany's energy cost burden.

7.3 Industrial Heart Stops Beating and the "Great Exodus"

Sky-high electricity bills became the "last straw" for German industry, with about half the cost coming from taxes and grid balancing fees, severely eroding industrial enterprises' profit margins. From an economic logic perspective, Profit = Selling Price - Cost. When the core cost of electricity becomes infinitely large, corporate profits approach zero or even turn negative, leading to the extreme situation of "operating at a loss."

"Deindustrialization" has become an unavoidable reality for Germany: In September 2024, Volkswagen for the first time announced it was considering closing its German factories; chemical giant BASF and others have been cutting costs at their German headquarters, closing some plants, and increasing investment in places like China. A "great exodus" of German industry is underway.

VIII. Futile Self-Rescue: Technical Patches Cannot Salvage Defeat from Strategic Errors

8.1 Complex Technical Self-Rescue Attempts

To escape the crisis, Germany launched a series of technical self-rescue measures, including designing complex electricity market mechanisms, promoting smart meters, and developing virtual power plants (Virtuelle Kraftwerke), attempting to use algorithms and market mechanisms to aggregate the flexibility of distributed energy resources and alleviate the energy system's instability.

8.2 Strategic Diligence Cannot Mask Tactical Incompetence

These technical attempts have been evaluated as "diligent in strategy, incompetent in tactics," akin to putting the most expensive band-aid on a patient with cardiac arrest—seemingly sophisticated but unable to solve the core problem. The root cause lies in the fatal flaws of the underlying energy transition strategy; mere technical patches cannot salvage the overall defeat.

8.3 Loss in Green Industry Competition

Germany's plan to sacrifice traditional industry to cultivate green industries also failed to materialize. In key new energy product markets like solar panels, energy storage batteries, and wind turbine blades, China has already taken a dominant position. Germany's once-highly-anticipated green industry strategy has completely fallen through.

IX. China-Germany Path Comparison: The Divide Between Pragmatism and Fundamentalism

9.1 China's Pragmatic Path

China has adopted a pragmatic energy transition strategy: While vigorously developing renewable energy like wind and solar, it firmly maintains thermal power as its foundation, actively promotes nuclear power development, and has built the world's largest ultra-high-voltage grid to achieve cross-regional energy complementarity through physical regulation. Its core logic is "first fill the stomach, then talk about eating healthily," steadily advancing the transition under the premise of ensuring energy security.

9.2 Germany's Fundamentalist Path

Germany, however, went to the extreme of environmental fundamentalism: In pursuit of the goal of "absolute environmental protection," it was willing to bear the risks of energy shortages and economic recession, akin to "risking starvation for absolute health." This unrealistic, "obsessive" path ultimately led to a comprehensive crisis.

9.3 Core Lesson: Arrogance Defying Laws Demands a Heavy Price

In the face of nature and physical laws, noble ideals alone cannot generate electricity. The failure of Germany's energy transition profoundly reveals a core lesson: Energy transition must respect economic laws and physical reality; it cannot pursue radical political correctness detached from national conditions. Ignoring the basic premise of energy security and blindly implementing idealized environmental policies will ultimately incur heavy economic and social costs.

Conclusion

The course of Germany's radical energy transition is a tragedy of ideals colliding with reality. From the hasty abandonment of nuclear power to over-reliance on wind and solar, from pinning hopes on cheap energy from a geopolitical rival to the system's collapse after the Nord Stream sabotage, each misstep pushed Germany deeper into crisis. This crisis has not only cost Germany dearly through energy price hikes and industrial outflow but also provided an important warning for the global energy transition: Energy transition is a long-term systematic project, not a radical political movement. Only by balancing environmental goals, energy security, and economic development can it proceed steadily and sustainably.