Breaking the Deadlock and Rising: Bin Salman Leads Saudi Arabia's Power Reshaping and Geopolitical Breakthrough

Since King Salman ascended to the throne in 2015, his son, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has completed the power transition with lightning speed, subsequently launching a series of radical reforms and grand strategies covering the economy, society, and foreign affairs. This trillion-dollar "gamble" has not only reshaped Saudi Arabia's domestic power structure but also profoundly impacted the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. It reflects Saudi Arabia's breakthrough from its traditional dependency model and its re-evaluation of the global power structure. This article will delve into the strategic layout, successes, failures, and lessons of MBS's decade in power, unveiling the essence of power beneath the cloak of the "Saudi Dream."

I. Power Transition: The Rise of Bin Salman

1.1 A Power Beginning that Broke Tradition

On January 23, 2015, King Salman ascended the throne, breaking Saudi Arabia's long-standing tradition of "brother-to-brother" succession by appointing his brother, Muqrin, as Crown Prince for the first time. More crucially, the King simultaneously appointed his 29-year-old son, **Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)**, as Minister of Defense, giving this young prince direct control of the nation's "guns," laying the core foundation for his subsequent rise to power.

1.2 Step-by-Step Power Consolidation

Just three months after King Salman's accession, he deposed his brother Muqrin as Crown Prince citing "health reasons," and then formally appointed MBS as Deputy Crown Prince, concurrently serving as Chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs. This position granted MBS authority over almost all ministries except defense. The newly established Council for Economic and Development Affairs effectively sidelined the traditional cabinet, placing the ultimate control of the nation's economic lifelines—Saudi Aramco and the Sovereign Wealth Fund—firmly in MBS's hands.

In Saudi history, the position of "Deputy Crown Prince" was extremely rare and wielded excessive power. This arrangement clearly signaled that the Crown Prince position would eventually belong entirely to MBS. The core reason for not directly appointing him as Crown Prince at the time was MBS's youth; he needed to accumulate political achievements to win support from various domestic factions.

II. Crisis and Reform: The Kingdom on the Brink of Bankruptcy

2.1 An Imminent Fiscal Crisis

As MBS gradually consolidated power, Saudi Arabia was facing an unprecedented fiscal crisis. In 2015, the World Bank issued a report warning that without timely fiscal reforms, Saudi Arabia risked bankruptcy. The roots of this crisis stemmed mainly from three aspects:

First, a singular revenue structure: Oil revenues accounted for 85%-92% of the state's total income. Economic development was entirely dependent on oil resources, resulting in extremely poor risk resilience. Second, the impact of plummeting oil prices: The sharp drop in international oil prices in 2014 directly led to Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit reaching a record $98 billion in 2015, accounting for 24% of GDP. Third, inflexible expenditures: For a long time, Saudi Arabia had maintained a super high-welfare system to support its 21 million citizens in exchange for political obedience. Data shows that over two-thirds of Saudi employees work in the public sector (far exceeding Norway's 31.1% and Japan's 8.2%), with the average public sector monthly salary exceeding $3,500. Half of the annual fiscal expenditure was used to directly pay salaries and benefits to citizens.

2.2 Reform Measures to Save the Crisis

MBS, newly in power, swiftly introduced three radical reform measures to address the crisis: First, drastically cutting almost all state subsidies while freezing some civil servant benefits. Second, introducing a Value-Added Tax (VAT) for the first time in Saudi Arabia's nearly tax-free history, gradually raising the rate from 5% to 15%. Third, leveraging the subsequent recovery in international oil prices to temporarily escape the brink of bankruptcy, buying breathing room for the subsequent grand strategies.

III. Vision 2030: Drawing the Blueprint for the "Saudi Dream"

3.1 The Release of the "Saudi Dream" Blueprint

To achieve economic transformation and social stability, after over a year of planning, MBS's team officially launched the national strategy—"Vision 2030". This strategy candidly acknowledged Saudi Arabia's dangerous dependence on oil and explicitly proposed building a new, high-tech, diversified Saudi Arabia, painting a grand blueprint for the nation's future development.

"Vision 2030" gained immense support domestically, especially among the youth (in 2017, over 60% of Saudi Arabia's population was under 30). The reason lies in the fact that the old "silent contract" (high welfare in exchange for obedience) primarily benefited the older generation. The youth faced high unemployment and did not fully benefit from the traditional welfare system, thus they were filled with anticipation for the diversified development opportunities promised by "Vision 2030."

3.2 Core Project: The Ambition of NEOM

Under the framework of "Vision 2030," MBS announced the "dream-level" super-future city project—"NEOM". The project plans an area of 26,500 square kilometers, claiming to feature cutting-edge facilities like flying taxis, an artificial moon, and sand that glows at night. Its core highlight is the 170-kilometer-long, 500-meter-high linear city "The Line," designed to accommodate 9 million residents.

3.3 The Essence of the Projects: Time and Contract for Power

In fact, whether these "spectacle architecture" projects are ultimately completed is not MBS's primary goal. Their core value lies in two aspects: First, weaving the "Saudi Dream," attracting the younger generation by depicting a high-tech, environmentally friendly, and open lifestyle, forging a new social contract with them, and consolidating the popular foundation for his rule. Second, buying time, using grand dreams to divert domestic attention from the pains of reform, creating favorable conditions for MBS to reshape the domestic power structure and consolidate personal authority.

IV. Power Purge: "Anti-Corruption" and Trillion-Dollar Financing

4.1 Power Reshuffling in the Name of Anti-Corruption

Just 11 days after announcing the "NEOM" project, MBS swiftly announced the establishment of the Supreme Anti-Corruption Committee and personally assumed its chairmanship. The committee was granted immense powers surpassing existing laws. Within a few hours, over 200 Saudi princes, government ministers, and wealthy businessmen were arrested. The arrest location was the very same hotel where MBS had announced the "NEOM" dream—the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh. This luxury hotel overnight became "the world's most luxurious prison."

4.2 Key Targets of the Crackdown

Those arrested included core figures of Saudi Arabia's power and wealth elite, such as: Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah, son of the former king and commander of the National Guard; Bakr bin Laden, half-brother of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and chairman of the Bin Laden Group; and Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, dubbed the "Warren Buffett of the Middle East," the region's richest man and a shareholder in numerous globally renowned companies.

4.3 The Dual Outcomes of the Purge

The core logic of the "anti-corruption" interrogations was "money or life." Ultimately, most detainees secured their freedom by surrendering substantial assets. This power purge achieved two key results: First, raising enormous funds. Assets seized through "settlements" exceeded $107 billion. These funds were injected into the sovereign wealth fund, completing the "armed financing" for "Vision 2030" and various spectacle projects. Second, establishing absolute authority. By targeting core royal family members and the old elite, MBS completely dismantled Saudi Arabia's old power network, establishing unchallengeable personal authority. It is worth noting that the Saudi royal family is estimated to have between 5,000 and 15,000 members. This purge made it clear to all royal members and domestic factions "who the real decision-maker is."

V. Shadow Government: Purchasing a "Corporate Cabinet"

5.1 A Power Shortcut Around the Old Bureaucracy

The implementation of "Vision 2030" and various spectacle projects is extremely complex. The inefficiency and inadequacy of Saudi Arabia's traditional bureaucratic system provided MBS with ample reason to bypass the entire traditional bureaucracy. To ensure the smooth progress of the strategy, MBS chose to build a "shadow government" directly loyal to himself by "purchasing services."

5.2 "Outsourced Governance" by Global Top-Tier Institutions

MBS spent huge sums to hire consultants from global top-tier consulting firms like McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), and Bain, forming a core advisory group. These consulting firms were deeply involved in formulating the "Vision 2030" national strategy and even directly intervened in the restructuring of Saudi ministries. A saying circulated within the Saudi bureaucracy: "The most powerful ministry in Saudi Arabia is called the Ministry of McKinsey."

Beyond consulting firms, this "procured" "shadow government" also included top financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Blackstone, and BlackRock, as well as world-leading law firms and public relations companies. Estimates suggest that since 2016, Saudi Arabia's total payments to these global top-tier institutions have ranged between $25 billion and $40 billion.

5.3 An Absolute Execution System Built with Money

Through massive funding, MBS successfully purchased an efficient, professional power execution system accountable only to him, truly achieving a state of control where "nothing grows around power." From a historical perspective, this is not the first time Saudi Arabia has outsourced major government functions—for over half a century, Saudi Arabia's national security was outsourced to the United States through the "oil-for-security" agreement. Now, MBS has outsourced the core functions of domestic governance to global commercial companies, forming a unique model of "commercialized governance."

VI. Global Investments: Weaving a Diplomatic Network with Capital

6.1 The Logic of Diplomacy Through Capital Binding

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund, led by MBS, has engaged in large-scale global investments. Its core logic is not purely commercial profit but rather packaging political decisions in a commercial form. By injecting capital, it establishes deep binding relationships with global power elites and capital giants, thereby weaving a global diplomatic network that serves Saudi national interests.

6.2 The Political Depth of Typical Investment Cases

Several typical investment cases clearly highlight this logic: In 2016, after a mere 45-minute meeting with SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son, where MBS listened to Son's business blueprint, he immediately pledged $45 billion to the SoftBank Vision Fund—an average decision of $10 billion per minute. The speed and scale of this decision clearly contained considerations beyond commerce. In 2021, six months after former President Trump left office, MBS, disregarding opposition within the United States, invested $2 billion in the private equity fund of Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Previously, during the significant U.S. criticism of Saudi Arabia following the Jamal Khashoggi incident, Kushner played a key role in easing U.S.-Saudi relations. This investment was undoubtedly a "reward" for Kushner and also aimed to maintain ties with the former U.S. power core.

6.3 The Core Essence of "Bin Salmanism"

MBS's global investment portfolio is extremely broad, covering assets like Uber, Disney, South Korean gaming companies, the Premier League football club Newcastle United, and the Panama Canal. From a strategic perspective, "spectacle architecture" is MBS's core means for internally constructing a social contract and reshaping the power structure (domestic dimension); "global investments" are his key path for externally achieving interest binding and weaving a diplomatic network (foreign policy dimension). Together, they constitute the core of **"Bin Salmanism"**: using commercial logic to thoroughly reshape the internal governance model and external international relations.

VII. A Decade in Review: Success, Failure, and Ironic Reality

7.1 Economy and Projects: The Gap Between Ideal and Reality

Looking back at MBS's decade in power, while Saudi Arabia faced periodic challenges in economic transformation and grand project advancement, it also accumulated valuable development experience: In the investment field, the investment in the SoftBank Vision Fund, despite experiencing book value fluctuations, provided practical experience for the global layout of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund. In the spectacle project field, "The Line" linear city's planning was optimized based on actual development needs, adjusted from the initial 170 km, accommodating 1.5 million residents to a phased implementation plan of 2.4 km, housing less than 300,000 residents, with completion expected by 2030. Pragmatic adjustments are more conducive to project implementation. Notably, the surge in international oil prices in 2021-2022 provided additional funding support for Saudi Arabia's transformation projects and allowed for clearer planning of a transformation rhythm focused on "gradually reducing oil dependence and steadily advancing diversification."

7.2 Society and International Relations: Breakthroughs Beyond Expectations

In stark contrast to setbacks in the economic field, MBS achieved unexpected success in social reforms and enhancing the international image: On the social front, Saudi Arabia gradually lifted the ban on women driving, introduced more cultural and entertainment products, marginalized the power of religious police, and significantly opened up the social atmosphere. On the international status front, although Saudi Arabia still maintains some dependence on the United States, it is no longer a vassal that "follows the U.S. lead in everything"—the most notable example being the historic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, hosted by China. This breakthrough signifies Saudi Arabia's efforts to reshape the Middle East's geopolitical landscape and its aspiration to become the region's undisputed leading nation. On the popular support front, MBS, who brought a more open culture, enjoys extremely high approval ratings among the youth, who constitute 65% of the population, securing a solid popular base.

7.3 The Core Irony: Classical Monarchy in Modern Garb

Behind MBS's strategic layout lies a highly ironic reality: he often wears a pair of $800 Hermès slippers under his traditional white robe, deliberately crafting an image of an approachable, fashionable modern leader. However, beneath the layers of the "Saudi Dream," what he truly pursues is the dream of power—in this dream, public opinion is never the most important core. This reform blueprint, wrapped in layers of modern corporate governance, AI technology, and futurist concepts, has at its very core a 19th-century classical monarch. His ultimate goal is for himself and his direct descendants to achieve absolute hereditary monarchical power where "one word decides, controlling the life and death of the people, the rise and fall of the dynasty." Those scaled-down spectacle buildings may ultimately, like the pharaohs' pyramids, become eternal witnesses to the new dynasty. And the state of absolute control where "nothing grows around power" will also transcend time and space, continuing indefinitely.

Conclusion: Saudi Transformation and Rise Driven by Strategic Innovation

The core logic of the series of radical reforms and grand strategies implemented by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman since he came to power in 2015 is to internally weave the "Saudi Dream" through **"Vision 2030"** and **"spectacle architecture,"** winning the support of the young populace and reshaping the power structure; simultaneously, externally binding international capital and elites through **"global investments,"** reconstructing foreign relations with commercial logic. To achieve this goal, MBS purged the old nobility in the name of "anti-corruption," raising trillions in funds; spent heavily to hire global top-tier consulting firms to form a "shadow government," achieving unprecedented power concentration and clearing obstacles for the advancement of various reforms.

A decade later, the effectiveness of MBS's strategic layout is evident: economic transformation, while facing periodic challenges, has become more sustainable after pragmatic adjustments. In areas such as social openness, enhancing the national image, and increasing geopolitical influence (e.g., reconciliation with Iran), Saudi Arabia has achieved milestone successes. Essentially, using the cloak of modern technology and commerce, MBS has propelled Saudi Arabia's transformation from a traditionally dependent state into an autonomous, leading regional power. His reform practices profoundly reflect Saudi Arabia's successful exploration between tradition and modernity, dependence and autonomy, and also provide an important case study for global observers of changes in the Middle Eastern power landscape.