Under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, green methanol has been favored and has ushered in an investment boom. However, many interviewees told the China Energy News reporter that current opportunities and risks coexist in green methanol projects, and "cold" thinking is needed behind the "heat" of investment.

Recently, the wind power coupled biomass green methanol integration (Phase I) project in Jixi City, Heilongjiang Province was filed. The project plans to build a 300,000-ton green methanol plant with a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan; CGNPC Xing 'an League signed a contract for a 2-million-kilowatt wind power hydrogen production to methanol integrated project, with an annual output of approximately 800,000 tons of green methanol and a total investment of 16 billion yuan... Since the beginning of this year, projects have been signed and filed in the green methanol field.

Under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, green methanol has been favored and has ushered in an investment boom. However, many interviewees told the China Energy News reporter that current opportunities and risks coexist in green methanol projects, and "cold" thinking is needed behind the "heat" of investment.

projects have been launched successively

Since last year, a large number of green methanol projects have been accelerated, with energy companies including China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation, China Energy Construction Corporation, State Power Investment Corporation, etc., as well as transportation industry companies such as Geely Group, COSCO Shipping, and China Merchants Steamship. In September last year, China Energy Construction and Electricity Engineering signed an investment cooperation agreement with the People's Government of Shuangyashan, Heilongjiang Province, with a total investment of approximately 16.8 billion yuan. In November of the same year, COSCO Shipping Logistics Supply Chain Co., Ltd. and CGNPC Wind Power Co., Ltd. held a signing ceremony for the strategic cooperation agreement for a green methanol production and marketing integrated project with an annual output of one million tons in Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia. In January this year, the world's first 100 million-ton liquid sunshine green methanol manufacturing project implemented by Inner Mongolia Liquid Sunshine Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Geely Group, was officially filed and approved. The total investment of the project is 18.53 billion yuan. The long-term plan has an overall annual output of 100 million tons. Green low-carbon methanol production capacity.

"The application of methanol as a fuel is currently in the ascendant. At the same time, as a basic chemical, it also has its own endogenous green development needs. The two demands are superimposed to form a good demand-side situation." Zhao Kai, chief representative of the Global Methanol Industry Association in China, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China Energy News,"In recent years, many large shipping companies have ordered methanol-powered ships. Currently, methanol is the only green fuel with mature technology and a certain supply in the shipping industry. In the future, methanol can also be used as electrically synthesized gasoline and electrically synthesized aviation fuel, which will also drive the progress of the decarbonization market."

Data shows that the global shipping industry consumes approximately 320 million tons of diesel in 2022. If 50% of the fuel is replaced by green methanol, the demand for green methanol will be approximately 380 million tons. 相较之下，当前全球甲醇产能约1.7亿吨/年，而来自生物质或绿氢生产的绿色甲醇有效产能较低。

Be alert to investment risks

According to Wang Jijie, a researcher at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences:"The current upstream and downstream markets for green methanol are not symmetrical. Although green methanol has attracted great interest in the shipping industry, how many shipping industries can accept the price of green methanol on board?" Based on the current diesel price of about 7000 yuan/ton, considering that the European carbon tax is 700 yuan/ton, the diesel price will increase to 9000 yuan/ton after paying the carbon tax.

If green methanol is used instead of diesel, considering the calorific value of methanol, shipowners expect the filling cost of green methanol to be controlled at 3750 yuan/ton. For the upstream green methanol production end, the cost of producing green methanol in the region with the best domestic resources also costs 4000 yuan/ton. Considering transportation, port storage, filling, etc., the cost of green methanol filling is about 5000 yuan/ton. Green methanol in other regions costs higher.

At the technical level, the large-scale production technology of green methanol still needs to be verified.

"Green methanol production includes technical paths such as biomass production of methanol, carbon dioxide hydrogenation driven by hydrogen production from renewable energy, and biomass coupling renewable energy to hydrogen production to synthesize methanol. Among them, biomass gasification technology, large-scale hydrogen production technology that adapts to the laws of wind and solar power generation, and carbon dioxide hydrogenation to methanol technology have completed several industrial pilot trials, but there are no operating cases of green methanol synthesis units with a scale of more than 100,000 tons. Large-scale production technology needs to be demonstrated and improved." Wang Jijie pointed out:"Methanol synthesis belongs to the chemical industry, as is green methanol synthesis. The key links in production all belong to the chemical industry. However, at present, the companies with high calls for green methanol production are not chemical companies, and there is still uncertainty whether these companies can carry out relevant production business smoothly, safely, and in accordance with quality and quantity. If the National Energy Group, China Coal Group and local chemical companies that are good at chemical operations turn to engage in green methanol synthesis, these companies will face fierce competition."

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Focus on technology and policy

Currently, the green methanol industry is in a critical period of development and requires greater investment enthusiasm, as well as technical and policy efforts.

Zhao Kai pointed out:"From the production side, the current green methanol route from biomass needs to further clarify the source of biomass and ensure the controllability of raw material costs; for the technical route of green electricity, it is necessary to further reduce costs and improve the efficiency and life of electrolytic cells. From the consumer perspective, the cost of using large-scale green fuels is higher and more support policies are needed."

Zhao Kai suggested:"Companies must carefully analyze product positioning and target markets, study costs and sales prices, and ensure sufficient profit space to achieve sustainable production of green fuels."

In Wang Jijie's opinion:"The green methanol industry can learn from the development experience of the electric vehicle industry. Coal electricity or wind and solar power generation are the same for electric vehicles; coal-to-coal methanol or green methanol is no different for methanol as a fuel. Existing methanol can be used to improve the industrial chain. After the industrial chain is improved, green substitution can be carried out from upstream."

“ At the green methanol synthesis end, it is also necessary to increase industrial production technology verification and pilot trials. At present, dozens of green methanol projects have been publicly reported to have been signed and filed, but no project has been implemented. In addition to market uncertainty, there is also a lack of cases from industrial pilot trials to large-scale industrial production. Capital markets need to invest in technology and try first. 另外，需要争取国家对绿色产品的实质性政策，尤其是财政支持，推动全国性质的、全领域的有偿碳排放机制建立，这样绿色甲醇的生产才有动力和压力。”王集杰说。