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Expert Roundtables

Ning Jizhe

Vice Chairman of the China International Economic Exchanges Center

Vice Chairman of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee

Jia Kang

Founding Dean of China New Supply-side Economics Research Institute

Former Director of the Fiscal Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance

Zhang Yuxian

Director, Economic Forecasting Department, National Information Center

Yina Zhang

Director, Consumer Big Data Laboratory, Ministry of Commerce

Director of Consumption Market Big Data Lab

（排名不分先后）

Current characteristics of Chinese consumption

Ning Jizhe

First, in terms of total volume, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 47.1 trillion yuan in 2023, hitting a record high. In terms of growth rate, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.2% year-on-year, significantly faster than the average growth rate of 2.5% over the past three years during the pandemic. In terms of contribution rate, final consumption expenditure contributed 82.5% to economic growth in 2023, a significant increase compared to the contribution rate in the previous three years. It can be said that without the recovery growth of consumption, the overall economic recovery and improvement in 2023 would not have been possible.

Second, the consumption of goods resumed growth and the consumption of services expanded rapidly. In 2023, China's retail sales of goods amounted to 41.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, reversing the situation in 2022 when the consumption of goods only increased by 0.5% under the influence of the epidemic. The retail sales of goods account for nearly 90% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, and its recovery and growth have supported the recovery of the overall consumption. In 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics released the retail sales of services to the public for the first time, which increased by 20% year-on-year, reflecting the positive trend of accelerated release of residents' consumer demand, especially the demand for services, after the epidemic.

Thirdly, there is a steady growth in basic living expenses and a rapid increase in upgraded consumption. The focus of the people's consumption is still food, clothing, and housing. In 2023, the consumption of basic living categories saw an across-the-board growth. Among the consumption in the units above the limit, the retail sales of food, clothing, and household items rose by 6%, 12.9%, and 4.7% year-on-year, respectively. At the same time, with the enhancement of residents' quality of life, digital, and green consumption concepts, and the adaptation of the market supply and demand system, some upgraded and travel-related commodities maintained a good growth momentum.

Fourthly, the consumption of physical goods started to recover, while the proportion of online consumption continued to increase. After getting out of the epidemic, the retail sales of physical stores have recovered thanks to the transformation of physical stores, the optimization of consumption environment, and the enhancement of consumption experience. In 2023, the retail sales revenue of physical stores above designated size increased by 5% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales revenue of convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores, and brand stores increased by 7.5%, 8.8%, 4.9%, and 4.5%, respectively.

Fifth, urban consumption is growing steadily, while rural consumption is growing faster. The urban and rural markets showed a momentum of common growth as the economy recovers, incomes rise, and the commercial system improves. Urban consumption remains the majority of national consumption. In 2023, China's sales of urban consumer goods reached 40.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 86.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year. At the same time, as farmers' incomes grow faster and it becomes more convenient for industrial consumer goods to enter the countryside, rural consumption is growing faster. In 2023, the retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 6.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%.

Sixthly, consumption in the eastern region continued to grow, while that in the western and northeastern regions accelerated. In 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased by 7.2% year-on-year. Among the 10 provinces and cities in the eastern region, 4 exceeded the national average. Among the 6 provinces in the central region, Hubei Province's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.5%, exceeding the national average. Among the 12 provinces and autonomous regions in the western region, 7 had a faster growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods than the national average. Among the three northeastern provinces, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded the national average in Jilin Province, Liaoning Province, and Heilongjiang Province, with the growth rates at 9%, 8.8%, and 8.1%, respectively. The consumer markets in the northeast, north China, and northwest regions became more active, reflecting the enhanced coordination of regional economic development.

Seventh, there was faster growth in per capita consumption expenditure, with an increase in consumption propensity and consumption structure. According to the survey, in 2023, the national per capita consumption expenditure was 27,000 yuan, up by 9% year on year, which exceeded the growth rate of per capita disposable income and the growth rate of the economy.

China's consumption will see further expansion in the new year. 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, and it is a crucial year for achieving the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan. As a cornerstone of economic development, consumption has shifted from post-pandemic recovery to sustained expansion, and will continue to demonstrate the following characteristics::Consumption policy signals are being strengthened, consumption capacity continues to improve, the consumption environment is continuously being optimized, service consumption is continuously expanding, new types of consumption are being cultivated and growing, traditional consumption is steadily expanding, and the consumption mechanism is being reformed and adjusted.