2024.0412

Number of words in this article:2153, reading time is about 4 minutes

introduction：上市房企市值集体缩水。

** Author| ** First Finance Wang Fangran

After a long period of continuous decline, real estate companies with a market value of 100 billion yuan in the A-share market have become almost impossible to find.

On April 11, the A-share market as a whole rose, while the real estate sector still closed down slightly. According to wind data, the real estate index (882011.WI) fell 0.26% to 1849 points, and leading companies such as Vanke A, Poly Development, and Xincheng Holdings all fell to varying degrees.

Stock prices continue to fall, causing the market value of listed real estate companies to continue to shrink, as is the case with Vanke, which has been deeply troubled by debt problems recently. As of the close of the 11th, Vanke A (000002.SZ) fell 1.85%. Its latest share price was 7.44 yuan/share, down 1.85%, a nine-year low, and its latest market value was only 88.7 billion yuan. Even with H shares, Vanke's current total market value is less than 140 billion yuan.

Vanke A is just a microcosm of the decline in share prices and the evaporation of market value of A-share listed real estate companies. Data shows that the real estate industry's once-golden brand of "recruiting and protecting thousands of gold" has now shrunk significantly, withdrawing from the 100 billion market value camp. As of the close of April 11, there were no listed real estate companies in the A-share market with a total market value of more than 100 billion yuan. The stock prices of many real estate companies are even close to the "warning line" of 1 yuan for face value delisting.

Vanke's market value evaporated by 80%

"Will it fall again?" Faced with continuous declines, Vanke's share price has sparked heated discussions among investors on online platforms.

Continuing the previous day's trend, on April 11, Vanke A fell again by 1.85%, closing at 7.44 yuan/share, a record low in nearly nine years. Since the beginning of the year, Vanke's A shares have fallen by more than 28%, leaving the P/B ratio of only 0.35 times.

At the beginning of 2024, Vanke A's share price still fluctuated around 10 yuan. After reaching a phased high of 10 yuan on March 12, it began to accelerate downward, and fell below 9 yuan on April 1, closing at 8.98 yuan/share. The market value is only slightly higher than 100 billion yuan. On April 3, Vanke A fell 3.68% again to close at 8.19 yuan/share, with a market value of 97.7 billion yuan, falling below the 100 billion mark for the first time in recent years. After consecutive declines in the past two days, Vanke A's latest market value is only about 88.7 billion yuan.

A shares fell, but H shares were not spared. Starting from January 2 this year, its H-share Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK) has fluctuated from a relative high of HK$6.7/share to HK$4.14/share on April 11, with a decline of 42.66% during the year. Based on the latest closing price, the current stock market value of Gangbang H is only HK$49.4 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB 45.7 billion.

Based on the above data, as of the close of April 11, the total value of Vanke's A shares and H stock markets was approximately 134.4 billion yuan. Compared with its high point in 2018, the company's current market value of nearly 700 billion yuan has evaporated.

In January 2018, Vanke A hit a high of 31.92 yuan, with a corresponding market value of approximately 452.4 billion yuan. During the same period, H shares were approximately 378.6 billion yuan, with a total market value of approximately 831 billion yuan. This means that Vanke's latest market value has shrunk by more than 80% compared with January 2018.

The myth of the market value of real estate enterprises is no longer

Vanke is not the only real estate company whose real estate industry is in a downturn and whose stock prices continue to fall.

Coincidentally, Poly Development's share price has also been falling and falling recently. Among the 10 trading days since March 27, Poly Development closed down in 9 trading days, with a range of 15.86%. On April 10, Poly Development fell 4.24% to close at 8.13 yuan/share, and its market value shrank to 97.3 billion yuan, falling short of the 100 billion "barrier."

In fact, the decline in the market value of Vanke and Poly is just a microcosm of many listed real estate companies. Falling stock prices and shrinking market values have become the main tone of listed real estate companies in recent years.

Wind data shows that as of April 10, the real estate index (882011.WI) was only 1854 points, with a cumulative decline of 14.9% during the year, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period. Compared with the high of 6353 in June 2015, the index remains less than one-third.

Stock prices continue to fall, and the market value of the real estate industry, once the golden brand name of "soliciting and guaranteeing thousands of gold", has dropped below the 100 billion mark. Data shows that as of April 10, Poly Development, Vanke A and China Merchants Shekou ranked among the top three in market value, with market values of 97.319 billion yuan, 90.4 billion yuan and 76 billion yuan respectively, while Gemdale Group's market value was 15.6 billion yuan.

According to choice data, as of now, among the 123 real estate companies listed on the A-share market, the number of real estate companies with a total market value of more than 100 billion yuan has returned to zero. Real estate enterprises with a market value of more than 10 billion yuan have dropped from more than 70 in June 2015 to about 30 currently.

The market value of real estate enterprises has collectively shrunk

For a long time, real estate companies have not only been the main force with a market value of hundreds of billions of A-shares. Among large-cap companies in Hong Kong stocks, mainland real estate companies also occupy many seats.

The period from 2018 to 2020 was a golden moment for the market value of listed real estate companies to expand rapidly. According to statistics from the reporter, as of December 30, 2018, there were about 13 real estate companies with a market value of 100 billion yuan in the A-share and H-share markets, most of which came from the mainland or used the mainland as its main place of business.

As of the end of December 2018, in the A-share market, the market value of Vanke A was 262.9 billion yuan, Poly Development was 140.2 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou was 137.1 billion yuan; in the H-share market, the market values of China Evergrande, China Resources Land and Country Garden were 265.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, 181.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 169.9 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively. Including the above-mentioned three real estate companies, a total of 11 companies have entered the "club" with a market value of 100 billion Hong Kong dollars.

The turning point will occur in 2021. As the property market turned cold, in July of that year, *ST experienced a situation where some of Blu-ray's debts could not be repaid as scheduled. In September, Evergrande Group also defaulted on its debt. After October, many real estate companies experienced difficulties in repaying their US dollar debts.

That is, around this time, the stock prices of listed real estate companies entered a downward channel. According to CRIC statistics, starting from 2021, the total market value of 100 listed real estate companies in A-shares (excluding delisted real estate companies) will decline year-on-year at the end of 2021 and 2022, by 10.17% and 8.39% respectively, and the year-on-year decline of 81 listed real estate companies in H-shares was 23.53% and 6.7% respectively.

A report from the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute shows that at the end of 2023, the total market value of the 298 Chinese real estate listed companies included in the research sample was 2.28 trillion yuan in RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan. Among them, the market value of development companies totaled 1.76 trillion yuan, accounting for 77.2%.

According to statistics from the reporter, as of April 10, 2024, the total market value of 123 companies in the A-share real estate sector was 1.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 800 billion yuan compared with 1.9 trillion yuan in the same period in 2021. As of April 10, 2024, the total market value of 85 companies in the H-share real estate sector was HK$1.57 trillion, a decrease of approximately HK$2.76 trillion compared with HK$4.33 trillion in the same period in 2021.

After continuing to fall, when will the stock prices of listed real estate companies bottom out? Industry insiders believe that as real estate supply and demand policies continue to be optimized and adjusted, homebuyers 'willingness to purchase may undergo moderate repairs, and the continued implementation of financing support for "white list" projects will help boost market confidence. In the future, the market will pick up and the operations of real estate enterprises will improve, which will also promote the recovery of real estate enterprises 'stock prices.

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