2024.0329

Number of words in this article:2393, reading time is about 4 minutes

introduction： 为什么疫情管控都已放开，中外主要航司的业绩还会出现冰火两重天的差异？

** Author| ** First Finance and Economics Chen Shanshan

In the last two days, the three major state-owned airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China, have successively disclosed their performance reports for 2023, and the cumulative losses of the three major state-owned aviation departments in 2023 are still more than 10 billion yuan. Prior to this, China Finance and Economics also reported that the overall loss of CAAC in 2023 was 28.8 billion, of which the airlines lost 17 billion, meaning that the losses of the three major airlines accounted for the majority. Not long ago, many European and American airlines also disclosed their performance in 2023 one after another. Compared with the three major domestic airlines, major European and American aviation companies have made positive profits. For example, among the three major airlines in the United States, the net profit of Delta Airlines reached $4.609 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249.7%. The net profits of United Airlines and American Airlines also reached $2.618 billion and $822 million respectively. Among the three major European airlines, Lufthansa's net profit in 2023 was 1.673 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 112%. The net profits of Air France-KLM and BA's parent company, International Aviation Group, also reached 934 million euros and 2.655 billion euros respectively. Why is it that the control and control of the epidemic has been liberalized, and there are still differences in the performance of major aviation departments at home and abroad? First of all, it is related to the different time for countries to liberalize the control of the epidemic. As early as November 2021, the United States lifted an 18-month travel ban and lifted strict travel restrictions on China, India and most European countries, while China lifted controls a year later. So in 2022, the performance of American airlines actually began to turn around. In the second quarter of 2022, among the three major US airlines, except for Delta Airlines, which was still 3.6% lower than in the same period in 2019 before the outbreak, both American Airlines and United Airlines had higher passenger revenue than in the same period before the epidemic. In China, 2022 was the year that CAAC lost the most, with the industry losing 217.44 billion. At the end of last year, the IATA report pointed out that the rate of recovery from the epidemic varies from region to region. Among the global airlines, North America, Europe and the Middle East will make net profits in 2023, but the Asia-Pacific region will not achieve net profits until 2024, while Latin America and Africa will still be in deficit in 2024. Secondly, the degree of recovery of major international aviation markets varies from region to region. For European and American airlines, routes between Europe and the United States are an important source of income for their international routes. at present, air transportation between these two regions has resumed as usual. this is also one of the reasons why the US Aviation Department is not as active in increasing the number of Sino-US routes as the Chinese Aviation Department, and one of the reasons for putting its limited capacity into more profitable European and American routes. In China, the overall recovery of CAAC's international passenger flights in 2023 was only 37.5% of 2019, from less than 10% at the beginning of the year to 55.8% at the end of the year. The lack of full blood recovery of international routes means that a large number of wide-body aircraft originally intended to fly international long-range routes have to return to the domestic market, which also affects the airline's fare level, aircraft utilization and occupancy. China Southern Airlines, Air China and China Eastern Airlines all pointed out in their performance announcements that due to factors such as restrictions on navigation rights, visa policies, and lack of security resources on some routes, the resumption of international passenger flights is relatively slow, and wide-body airliners are transferred to China. The overall supply of domestic passenger transport exceeds demand, and competition in the domestic market intensifies. In the domestic aviation department, the three major airlines account for the largest proportion of international routes, the number of wide-body aircraft is also more, affected by the slow recovery of the international market is also greater, the loss is also more serious. However, as far as I know, at the internal meeting of the Civil Aviation Administration at the beginning of the year, the goal of "overall profitability of the industry" was set for 2024, and the three major airlines, including China Eastern Airlines, also set the goal of turning losses into profits for the main aviation industry at their annual work meetings. Whether we can turn losses into profits in 2024, the degree of recovery of international routes is still one of the important factors. Zou Jianjun, a professor at the China Civil Aviation Management cadre College, believes that the air transport market in 2024 may not be too optimistic, and the first quarter may be better than 2023, but the third quarter (the concentrated release of pent-up demand for summer transportation in 2023) may be "unsatisfactory", and "climbing over the hill" will be a true portrayal of the industry throughout the year. "the recovery of the future market is definitely not a simple replication before the epidemic, but will face comprehensive structural changes, including the domestic and international airline markets." Zou Jianjun pointed out: therefore, adapting to China's current national conditions, paying attention to the experience economy, persisting in taking demand as the center, and paying attention to operational efficiency and development benefits should be the focus of China's civil aviation reform. **