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19 May Briefing Read full brief

Iran-war shock pushes UK energy cap to GBP 1,850 and unemployment to 5% as Met readies Grenfell charges

Cornwall Insight forecast on May 19 that the Ofgem price cap will rise 13 per cent to GBP 1,850 a year from July, adding GBP 209 to a typical bill after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz doubled wholesale gas. The ONS said UK unemployment climbed to 5 per cent in the three months to March, with April payrolls down 100,000 -- the largest fall since May 2020. The Metropolitan Police will submit Grenfell Tower evidence files by end-September seeking charges against up to 57 individuals and 20 companies, and former DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's trial on 18 charges including rape begins next week at Newry Crown Court.

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UK energy bills set to rise 13% to £1,850 from July as Iran war shock keeps gas prices elevated

The UK's energy price cap is forecast to rise to £1,850 per year from July -- a 13% jump adding £209 to a typical household bill -- after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli strikes doubled wholesale gas prices earlier this year, energy consultancy Cornwall Insight said on May 19. Cornwall said autumn bills are unlikely to fall back to April levels even if the war ends, citing "physical damage to infrastructure" and disrupted supply. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a cost-of-living package on Thursday.

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The UK's energy price cap is forecast to rise to £1,850 per year from July -- a 13% jump adding £209 to a typical household bill -- after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli strikes doubled wholesale gas prices earlier this year, energy consultancy Cornwall Insight said on May 19. Cornwall said autumn bills are unlikely to fall back to April levels even if the war ends, citing "physical damage to infrastructure" and disrupted supply. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a cost-of-living package on Thursday.

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UK unemployment rises to 5% as Iran war uncertainty hits hiring

The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5% in the three months to March, up from 4.9%, as vacancies fell to their lowest level in five years, official data showed Tuesday. The Office for National Statistics reported payrolls slumped by 100,000 in April, the largest drop since May 2020, driven by pullbacks in retail and hospitality. Regular earnings growth slowed to 3.4%, only 0.3 percentage points above CPI inflation.

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The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5% in the three months to March, up from 4.9%, as vacancies fell to their lowest level in five years, official data showed Tuesday. The Office for National Statistics reported payrolls slumped by 100,000 in April, the largest drop since May 2020, driven by pullbacks in retail and hospitality. Regular earnings growth slowed to 3.4%, only 0.3 percentage points above CPI inflation.

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Met Police seeks criminal charges for up to 57 individuals over Grenfell Tower fire

The Metropolitan Police said it will submit evidence files to the Crown Prosecution Service by the end of September 2026, seeking charges against up to 57 individuals and 20 companies over the Grenfell Tower fire. Potential offences include corporate gross negligence manslaughter, fraud, health and safety breaches and misconduct in public office. A final decision on charges could take until June 2027, with any trials unlikely before 2029.

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The Metropolitan Police said it will submit evidence files to the Crown Prosecution Service by the end of September 2026, seeking charges against up to 57 individuals and 20 companies over the Grenfell Tower fire. Potential offences include corporate gross negligence manslaughter, fraud, health and safety breaches and misconduct in public office. A final decision on charges could take until June 2027, with any trials unlikely before 2029.

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Trial of former DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson on sex abuse charges to begin next week

The trial of former Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and his wife Lady Eleanor Donaldson on sex abuse charges is scheduled to begin next week. A pre-trial hearing at Newry Crown Court on Tuesday heard that a medical report on Lady Donaldson has been completed, with a further hearing on Wednesday to clear the way for jury selection on 26 May. Sir Jeffrey faces 18 charges including one count of rape, while Lady Donaldson faces five charges of aiding and abetting; both deny all allegations.

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The trial of former Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and his wife Lady Eleanor Donaldson on sex abuse charges is scheduled to begin next week. A pre-trial hearing at Newry Crown Court on Tuesday heard that a medical report on Lady Donaldson has been completed, with a further hearing on Wednesday to clear the way for jury selection on 26 May. Sir Jeffrey faces 18 charges including one count of rape, while Lady Donaldson faces five charges of aiding and abetting; both deny all allegations.

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UK HS2 rail project cost rises to up to £102.7bn with delayed start and reduced train speed

UK Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced that the HS2 high-speed rail project could cost up to £102.7bn, with trains running between 2036 and 2039, up to six years later than planned. Top speed will be reduced to 320km/h to save up to £2.5bn. The government blamed the previous administration for cost underestimates and inefficient delivery, but committed to completing the London-Birmingham line.

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UK Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced that the HS2 high-speed rail project could cost up to £102.7bn, with trains running between 2036 and 2039, up to six years later than planned. Top speed will be reduced to 320km/h to save up to £2.5bn. The government blamed the previous administration for cost underestimates and inefficient delivery, but committed to completing the London-Birmingham line.

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Israel detains British student leader from Gaza flotilla in international waters

Israeli forces detained Hasnain Jafer, a British student leader from King's College London, along with approximately 300 activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla attempting to break the naval blockade on Gaza. Israel's Foreign Ministry stated it will not allow any breach of the blockade, while flotilla organizers condemned the interception as illegal under international maritime law.

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Israeli forces detained Hasnain Jafer, a British student leader from King's College London, along with approximately 300 activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla attempting to break the naval blockade on Gaza. Israel's Foreign Ministry stated it will not allow any breach of the blockade, while flotilla organizers condemned the interception as illegal under international maritime law.

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UK government calls Married at First Sight rape allegations 'extremely serious'

The UK Prime Minister's spokesperson described rape allegations involving the reality TV show Married at First Sight UK as 'extremely serious', following a BBC Panorama investigation. Two women allege they were raped during filming, and a third alleges a non-consensual sex act. Channel 4 has removed episodes and commissioned an external review, while sponsor Tui paused its sponsorship. The government and Ofcom have called for thorough investigation and improved duty of care protocols.

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The UK Prime Minister's spokesperson described rape allegations involving the reality TV show Married at First Sight UK as 'extremely serious', following a BBC Panorama investigation. Two women allege they were raped during filming, and a third alleges a non-consensual sex act. Channel 4 has removed episodes and commissioned an external review, while sponsor Tui paused its sponsorship. The government and Ofcom have called for thorough investigation and improved duty of care protocols.

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Europe's jet fuel supply fears ease as alternative sources fill gap from Iran war blockade

Background: The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade had driven jet fuel prices up nearly 84% since February, threatening European airlines' summer season with potential shortages and higher fares. Today: Europe is now considered unlikely to face a jet fuel supply crisis this summer, as higher prices have attracted alternative supplies from West Africa, the U.S., and Norway, offsetting lost Gulf volumes. The U.S. has flipped from net importer to net exporter of jet fuel, and European refiners like Repsol have ramped up production by 15-20%. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary confirmed suppliers expect no disruption through mid-July, and the IEA noted a surge in jet fuel production. Jet fuel prices have fallen to about $162 per barrel from over $200. Ryanair is adding new flights, and Eurocontrol revised its summer forecast to 2-2.5% traffic growth. The European Commission said there are no current shortages but warned of regional constraints if the blockade persists. The UK government assessed the summer outlook as OK, but warned of potential shortages in September if the situation continues. Energy analysts also assess that summer should be fine.

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Background: The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade had driven jet fuel prices up nearly 84% since February, threatening European airlines' summer season with potential shortages and higher fares. Today: Europe is now considered unlikely to face a jet fuel supply crisis this summer, as higher prices have attracted alternative supplies from West Africa, the U.S., and Norway, offsetting lost Gulf volumes. The U.S. has flipped from net importer to net exporter of jet fuel, and European refiners like Repsol have ramped up production by 15-20%. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary confirmed suppliers expect no disruption through mid-July, and the IEA noted a surge in jet fuel production. Jet fuel prices have fallen to about $162 per barrel from over $200. Ryanair is adding new flights, and Eurocontrol revised its summer forecast to 2-2.5% traffic growth. The European Commission said there are no current shortages but warned of regional constraints if the blockade persists. The UK government assessed the summer outlook as OK, but warned of potential shortages in September if the situation continues. Energy analysts also assess that summer should be fine.

Frequently Asked

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What is the new UK energy price cap from July?
Cornwall Insight forecasts the Ofgem quarterly energy price cap will rise to £1,850 a year from July, a 12.7% increase from the £1,641 cap for April-June.
Why did the UK unemployment rate rise to 5%?
The Office for National Statistics reported the unemployment rate rose to 5% in the three months to March, up from 4.9%, driven by the Iran-war oil shock affecting hiring decisions.
When will the Met Police submit Grenfell Tower charges?
The Metropolitan Police will submit evidence files to the Crown Prosecution Service by the end of September 2026, seeking charges against up to 57 individuals and 20 companies.
What charges does Sir Jeffrey Donaldson face?
Former DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson faces 18 charges including one count of rape; his wife Lady Eleanor Donaldson faces five charges of aiding and abetting. Both deny all allegations.
How much will HS2 cost and when will it run?
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed HS2 will cost up to £102.7 billion, with services running between 2036 and 2039, up to six years late, at a reduced top speed of 320 km/h.