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13 July Briefing Read full brief

Ukraine's war machine has outgrown the state that has to feed it

Ukraine had its best military week of the war and one of its worst political ones: drone crews struck 76 Russian vessels in six days, shut the Kerch Strait and pushed Russian oil refining to a 21-year low. Yet not one of the 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv on 5-6 July was intercepted, a Lviv crowd overturned an army recruitment van, and Zelensky's answer was to ask parliament for 90 more days of martial law and mobilisation.

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Ukraine claims 28 Russian vessels struck in Sea of Azov, total reaches 76 in six-day campaign

Background: Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days in the Sea of Azov, targeting maritime fuel supply routes to occupied Crimea. New development: On July 11, Ukraine's 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade claimed 28 additional Russian vessels were struck, including 21 tankers, 4 tugs, 2 cargo vessels, and 1 special-purpose vessel, bringing the six-day total (July 6–11) to 76. Russia has suspended navigation through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait, impacting about 25% of its wheat exports. The strikes have exacerbated fuel shortages, with Russian gasoline output falling to 65% of seasonal average consumption, prompting imports from Belarus and India. The campaign is part of a broader effort to isolate Crimea and damage Russia's energy infrastructure.

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Background: Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days in the Sea of Azov, targeting maritime fuel supply routes to occupied Crimea. New development: On July 11, Ukraine's 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade claimed 28 additional Russian vessels were struck, including 21 tankers, 4 tugs, 2 cargo vessels, and 1 special-purpose vessel, bringing the six-day total (July 6–11) to 76. Russia has suspended navigation through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait, impacting about 25% of its wheat exports. The strikes have exacerbated fuel shortages, with Russian gasoline output falling to 65% of seasonal average consumption, prompting imports from Belarus and India. The campaign is part of a broader effort to isolate Crimea and damage Russia's energy infrastructure.

ua48

Russian glide bomb strike kills five in Sumy, including child

On 22 June, Russian forces dropped two guided glide bombs on a crowded area of Sumy, Ukraine, killing five people including a 13-year-old girl and injuring at least 30 others. CCTV footage captured the moment of the explosions near a coffee shop and a public transport stop, causing panic among civilians. The attack damaged buses, cars, and residential buildings. This marks a significant escalation in the use of glide bombs against the city center, resulting in the highest single-incident death toll in Sumy in recent weeks.

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On 22 June, Russian forces dropped two guided glide bombs on a crowded area of Sumy, Ukraine, killing five people including a 13-year-old girl and injuring at least 30 others. CCTV footage captured the moment of the explosions near a coffee shop and a public transport stop, causing panic among civilians. The attack damaged buses, cars, and residential buildings. This marks a significant escalation in the use of glide bombs against the city center, resulting in the highest single-incident death toll in Sumy in recent weeks.

ua48

Ukrainian drones strike Kuban-Crimea power bridge and 11 energy hubs in occupied Crimea

On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

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On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

ua48

Russian oil refining output hits 21-year low after Ukrainian strikes

Background: Ukrainian drone strikes in May 2026 forced six major Russian refineries to halt operations, causing a 16-year low in refinery runs and a 20% drop in diesel production. Today: Russia's crude oil refining output fell to 3.91 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since 2005, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit at least 24 of 34 large refineries in 50 attacks over 100 days. The resulting domestic fuel crisis has forced Russia to ban gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel exports, ration fuel, and seek imports from India and Kazakhstan. According to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg, the output drop exceeds 60%.

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Background: Ukrainian drone strikes in May 2026 forced six major Russian refineries to halt operations, causing a 16-year low in refinery runs and a 20% drop in diesel production. Today: Russia's crude oil refining output fell to 3.91 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since 2005, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit at least 24 of 34 large refineries in 50 attacks over 100 days. The resulting domestic fuel crisis has forced Russia to ban gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel exports, ration fuel, and seek imports from India and Kazakhstan. According to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg, the output drop exceeds 60%.

ua46

Ukrainian drone strike kills three near Moscow; Kremlin propagandists celebrate Lindsey Graham's death

A Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Pionersky in the Moscow region killed three people and injured several others, marking one of the deadliest strikes near the capital. Russia's Investigative Committee opened a terrorism case. Kremlin propagandists celebrated the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, who died shortly after returning from Kyiv. President Trump, during a visit to Ankara, supported Ukrainian strikes and hinted at Patriot missile licenses for Kyiv, unsettling the Kremlin.

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A Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Pionersky in the Moscow region killed three people and injured several others, marking one of the deadliest strikes near the capital. Russia's Investigative Committee opened a terrorism case. Kremlin propagandists celebrated the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, who died shortly after returning from Kyiv. President Trump, during a visit to Ankara, supported Ukrainian strikes and hinted at Patriot missile licenses for Kyiv, unsettling the Kremlin.

ua46

Russian strike on Odesa port kills five crew members, injures ten

On July 13, Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, striking a Togo-flagged merchant vessel unloading mineral fertilizers. The strike damaged the ship's superstructure and caused a fire, initially killing three crew members and injuring five others. During firefighting efforts, two more bodies were found, raising the death toll to five crew members, with a total of ten injured. Port infrastructure and civilian facilities were also damaged. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office opened a war crimes investigation under Article 438.2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Local officials denounced the attack as a deliberate act against global food security and civilian shipping. The attack is part of an intensified Russian campaign against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, which Ukraine says has hit 59 merchant vessels since 2022.

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On July 13, Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, striking a Togo-flagged merchant vessel unloading mineral fertilizers. The strike damaged the ship's superstructure and caused a fire, initially killing three crew members and injuring five others. During firefighting efforts, two more bodies were found, raising the death toll to five crew members, with a total of ten injured. Port infrastructure and civilian facilities were also damaged. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office opened a war crimes investigation under Article 438.2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Local officials denounced the attack as a deliberate act against global food security and civilian shipping. The attack is part of an intensified Russian campaign against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, which Ukraine says has hit 59 merchant vessels since 2022.

ua44

Ukraine's Prime Minister Svyrydenko resigns as Zelensky reshuffles cabinet amid corruption probe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a cabinet reshuffle on July 12, 2026, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko after one year in office. The reshuffle is driven by a need to update political strategy amid Russia's ongoing invasion and follows a corruption investigation into Ambassador to the US Olga Stefanishyna, who faces embezzlement allegations. Svyrydenko, who helped secure a critical minerals deal with the US, is expected to become ambassador to Washington. Former Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, and state energy CEO Serhii Koretskyi are candidates to replace her. The changes also target several ministerial posts and law enforcement heads, with a focus on co-producing Patriot missiles with the US.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a cabinet reshuffle on July 12, 2026, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko after one year in office. The reshuffle is driven by a need to update political strategy amid Russia's ongoing invasion and follows a corruption investigation into Ambassador to the US Olga Stefanishyna, who faces embezzlement allegations. Svyrydenko, who helped secure a critical minerals deal with the US, is expected to become ambassador to Washington. Former Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, and state energy CEO Serhii Koretskyi are candidates to replace her. The changes also target several ministerial posts and law enforcement heads, with a focus on co-producing Patriot missiles with the US.

ua44

Ukraine conducts first combat mission deploying armed ground robot from sea drone on Kinburn Spit

Ukraine's 123rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade executed the world's first known combat operation in which an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) transported and deployed an armed uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv region. The mission, led by Col. Oleg Makukha and involving the 1st Unmanned Systems Battalion under Maj. Denys Gipik, used a Rys-family UGV armed with a 7.62mm machine gun. The USV beached itself, lowered a ramp, and the UGV drove ashore to engage targets before the USV departed. This milestone demonstrates Ukraine's rapid innovation in uncrewed systems to reduce troop exposure and marks a new phase in robotic amphibious warfare.

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Ukraine's 123rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade executed the world's first known combat operation in which an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) transported and deployed an armed uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv region. The mission, led by Col. Oleg Makukha and involving the 1st Unmanned Systems Battalion under Maj. Denys Gipik, used a Rys-family UGV armed with a 7.62mm machine gun. The USV beached itself, lowered a ramp, and the UGV drove ashore to engage targets before the USV departed. This milestone demonstrates Ukraine's rapid innovation in uncrewed systems to reduce troop exposure and marks a new phase in robotic amphibious warfare.

Frequently Asked

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What did Ukraine's drone strikes achieve in July 2026?
Ukraine's drone crews hit 76 vessels in the Sea of Azov, including 21 tankers in one night, and struck 24 of Russia's 34 large refineries, disabling 43% of refining capacity. Russian wheat exports and refinery output dropped significantly.
Why is Ukraine facing a mobilization crisis?
Roughly two million men are wanted for registration violations, and 200,000 soldiers have deserted since 2022. A crowd in Lviv overturned a recruitment vehicle, reflecting deep distrust in the state's conscription system.
What is the significance of the Patriot interceptor license?
The US granted Ukraine a license to build PAC-3 interceptors, but Lockheed Martin has not signed, and production will take at least a year. Ukraine needs 2,000 interceptors annually but global production is only 500-600.
How did Russia respond to Ukraine's strikes?
Russia hit a grain ship in Odesa, killing five crew, and damaged Ukrainian grain terminals. Moscow can move grain by rail, while Ukraine's sea corridor is vital for its budget.
What is the key date for Ukraine's political future?
October 31, 2026, when martial law lapses and the mobilization question returns. Zelensky extended martial law and general mobilization for 90 days until that date.