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13 July Briefing Read full brief

A president tolling the world's oil route, and a Senate too broken to fund his war

Trump declared the US "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and demanded 20% of all cargo transiting it — a tax on world trade that no Congress voted. It landed as his $87.6bn war supplemental reached a Senate that has lost Lindsey Graham to an aortic dissection and Mitch McConnell to a month in hospital, with funding lapsing five weeks before the midterms. He threatened Iran with 1,000 missiles, then agreed to keep talking; Brent settled near $76.

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Iran ceasefire collapses, US launches new strikes and requests $87 billion supplemental

The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since June 17, collapsed in late June 2026 after Iran targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military responded with two rounds of strikes inside Iran, hitting around 170 targets. The White House formally requested an $87 billion supplemental for Operation Epic Fury, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs, $2.4 billion for drones, $12.1 billion for classified programs, and $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy. The Pentagon's acting chief financial officer updated the conflict cost to $29 billion, while outside experts place the figure as high as $100 billion. Long-term costs include $250-300 billion for regional base repairs and $250-500 billion in veteran benefits over a decade. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on Truth Social, though diplomatic talks continue.

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The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since June 17, collapsed in late June 2026 after Iran targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military responded with two rounds of strikes inside Iran, hitting around 170 targets. The White House formally requested an $87 billion supplemental for Operation Epic Fury, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs, $2.4 billion for drones, $12.1 billion for classified programs, and $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy. The Pentagon's acting chief financial officer updated the conflict cost to $29 billion, while outside experts place the figure as high as $100 billion. Long-term costs include $250-300 billion for regional base repairs and $250-500 billion in veteran benefits over a decade. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on Truth Social, though diplomatic talks continue.

us48

US Senator Lindsey Graham dies suddenly at 71 from aortic dissection

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died suddenly on July 11, 2026, at age 71 from an aortic dissection due to cardiovascular disease. A close ally of President Trump and a hawkish voice on foreign policy, Graham had just returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine. His death reduces the Republican Senate majority to 51, complicates budget and confirmation votes, and triggers a special election process in South Carolina. Tributes poured in from Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and bipartisan colleagues.

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Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died suddenly on July 11, 2026, at age 71 from an aortic dissection due to cardiovascular disease. A close ally of President Trump and a hawkish voice on foreign policy, Graham had just returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine. His death reduces the Republican Senate majority to 51, complicates budget and confirmation votes, and triggers a special election process in South Carolina. Tributes poured in from Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and bipartisan colleagues.

us48

U.S. Deploys Kamikaze Drone Boats in Combat for First Time, Strikes Iranian Naval Facility

On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

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On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

us48

Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade stalls US nuclear negotiations

Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

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Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

us45

Trump claims he is Iran's top target as fighting resumes; Sunday shows to feature military and diplomatic officials

Background: President Trump resumed military strikes against Iran after the ceasefire collapse, creating political dilemmas for Republicans ahead of midterms. Today: Trump claimed he is Iran's 'No. 1' target amid renewed fighting. Former CENTCOM commander Gen. Frank McKenzie and Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker will discuss military operations on Sunday shows. Trump also fired remaining Democratic members of the Election Assistance Commission, drawing Democratic condemnation.

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Background: President Trump resumed military strikes against Iran after the ceasefire collapse, creating political dilemmas for Republicans ahead of midterms. Today: Trump claimed he is Iran's 'No. 1' target amid renewed fighting. Former CENTCOM commander Gen. Frank McKenzie and Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker will discuss military operations on Sunday shows. Trump also fired remaining Democratic members of the Election Assistance Commission, drawing Democratic condemnation.

us45

Centcom denies Iranian propaganda of US casualties in Kuwait as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and Trump announces naval blockade

Background: The IRGC denied US claims of a direct hotline regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire by launching suicide drones at ships. Today: U.S. Central Command refuted Iranian propaganda claiming three American service members were killed and HIMARS systems destroyed in Kuwait. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after striking a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the GFS Galaxy, for using an unauthorized route. President Trump announced the resumption of a U.S. naval blockade in the strait, declaring the U.S. would keep the strait open and impose a 20% fee on cargo, claiming the US would act as 'Guardian of the Strait.' Ship traffic hit a five-week low with only six ships passing through on Sunday. Iran's military command warned it would not allow US intervention and threatened severe consequences for any cooperation with the US. The UN shipping agency opposed the fee. Oil prices rose 5% to $79.37 a barrel, and global stock markets fell sharply. The UK announced it would list Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. Iran's IRGC claimed it struck US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and hit radar systems in Oman. The US military conducted a fourth wave of strikes, including the first use of sea drones, targeting Iranian air defense, radar, missile, and drone sites. Iran's foreign ministry said the June memorandum of understanding was 'in crisis.' The E-3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iran's attacks on shipping and regional states, calling for a ceasefire and resumption of negotiations.

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Background: The IRGC denied US claims of a direct hotline regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire by launching suicide drones at ships. Today: U.S. Central Command refuted Iranian propaganda claiming three American service members were killed and HIMARS systems destroyed in Kuwait. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after striking a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the GFS Galaxy, for using an unauthorized route. President Trump announced the resumption of a U.S. naval blockade in the strait, declaring the U.S. would keep the strait open and impose a 20% fee on cargo, claiming the US would act as 'Guardian of the Strait.' Ship traffic hit a five-week low with only six ships passing through on Sunday. Iran's military command warned it would not allow US intervention and threatened severe consequences for any cooperation with the US. The UN shipping agency opposed the fee. Oil prices rose 5% to $79.37 a barrel, and global stock markets fell sharply. The UK announced it would list Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. Iran's IRGC claimed it struck US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and hit radar systems in Oman. The US military conducted a fourth wave of strikes, including the first use of sea drones, targeting Iranian air defense, radar, missile, and drone sites. Iran's foreign ministry said the June memorandum of understanding was 'in crisis.' The E-3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iran's attacks on shipping and regional states, calling for a ceasefire and resumption of negotiations.

us45

US launches new wave of strikes on Iran; oil rises, shipping slows in Strait of Hormuz

Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The US completed a new wave of offensive strikes against dozens of Iranian military sites, targeting air-defense, coastal radar, missile, drone, and naval capabilities to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by targeting US positions in the region. Oil prices rose and shipping through the strait slowed sharply.

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Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The US completed a new wave of offensive strikes against dozens of Iranian military sites, targeting air-defense, coastal radar, missile, drone, and naval capabilities to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by targeting US positions in the region. Oil prices rose and shipping through the strait slowed sharply.

us43

Iran's Supreme Leader Pledges Revenge for Father's Assassination; Trump Threatens to 'Decimate' Iran

Background: Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, and his funeral procession in Tehran on July 6 drew millions of mourners calling for revenge. Mojtaba Khamenei, who was seriously wounded in the attack that killed his father, succeeded him. On July 11, he issued a statement on his Telegram channel vowing revenge against the 'criminal and dishonorable killers,' stating that 'this revenge is the demand of our nation, and it will most certainly be carried out.' He did not specifically name President Trump but referenced 'these criminals — whose names are known from top to bottom.' In response, President Trump posted on Truth Social that 1,000 missiles are 'locked and loaded' aimed at Iran and that he has ordered the U.S. military to 'completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran' if any assassination attempt is made. Trump also traveled on the older Air Force One plane rather than the new one from Qatar, reportedly due to security concerns after Israel shared intelligence that Iranian officials had discussed assassinating Trump.

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Background: Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, and his funeral procession in Tehran on July 6 drew millions of mourners calling for revenge. Mojtaba Khamenei, who was seriously wounded in the attack that killed his father, succeeded him. On July 11, he issued a statement on his Telegram channel vowing revenge against the 'criminal and dishonorable killers,' stating that 'this revenge is the demand of our nation, and it will most certainly be carried out.' He did not specifically name President Trump but referenced 'these criminals — whose names are known from top to bottom.' In response, President Trump posted on Truth Social that 1,000 missiles are 'locked and loaded' aimed at Iran and that he has ordered the U.S. military to 'completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran' if any assassination attempt is made. Trump also traveled on the older Air Force One plane rather than the new one from Qatar, reportedly due to security concerns after Israel shared intelligence that Iranian officials had discussed assassinating Trump.

Frequently Asked

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What did Trump announce regarding the Hormuz Strait?
Trump declared the US the 'Guardian of the Hormuz Strait' and imposed a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through it, while reinstating a naval blockade on Iranian vessels.
Why is the Senate struggling to fund the war?
The Senate faces a $87.6 billion supplemental request, but Lindsey Graham died on Saturday, and Mitch McConnell has been hospitalized since June 14, leaving the chamber short of key votes.
What actions did Trump take unilaterally this week?
Trump reimposed the Iran blockade, ordered a third round of strikes inside Iran, fired the last three federal election commissioners, and tied counterterrorism funding to voter-citizenship checks.
How did the international community react to the Hormuz Strait fee?
The International Maritime Organization opposed the fee, EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas called for freedom of navigation, and former US energy diplomat David Goldwyn called it 'bluster.'
What is the SAVE America Act and why is it stalled?
The SAVE America Act requires photo ID and citizenship proof to vote, but cannot pass the Senate, leading Trump to fire election commissioners and withhold FEMA grants to enforce it.