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Global Briefing July 10

West Wins Wars but Can't Make Ceasefires Hold

NATO's leaders left Ankara having pledged 140 billion euros to Ukraine and a license to build Patriot interceptors, then watched the peace they came to consolidate fall apart. Within days the US-Iran ceasefire broke: Washington revoked Iran's oil waiver, struck 170-plus targets across five provinces, and Iran fired on American bases in the Gulf as Brent settled at $78. Ukraine, by contrast, won without waiting for a signature -- Operation Auchan wrecked 800 armored vehicles and Germany bought American Tomahawks to close a gap of its own.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us49

Israel warns US of Iranian assassination plot against Trump, prompting Air Force One security change

Israel provided the Trump administration with intelligence about an Iranian plot to assassinate the US president, leading to a last-minute change in Trump's aircraft for his departure from the NATO summit in Ankara. Trump used an older Air Force One plane instead of the new one gifted by Qatar, citing security concerns. The development comes amid heightened US-Iran tensions following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Quds Force commander Soleimani.

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Israel provided the Trump administration with intelligence about an Iranian plot to assassinate the US president, leading to a last-minute change in Trump's aircraft for his departure from the NATO summit in Ankara. Trump used an older Air Force One plane instead of the new one gifted by Qatar, citing security concerns. The development comes amid heightened US-Iran tensions following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Quds Force commander Soleimani.

gb49

Police arrest man on suspicion of murder of former UK politician Ann Widdecombe

Devon and Cornwall Police arrested a 26-year-old white British man on suspicion of murdering Ann Widdecombe, a former Conservative minister and later Reform UK politician, at her home in Dartmoor. The victim was found dead with serious injuries. The investigation is in its early stages but moving at significant pace; police have consulted counter-terrorism policing but do not currently treat the incident as terrorist-related or politically motivated. Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the suspect as 'clearly dangerous' and urged the public to assist in the investigation.

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Devon and Cornwall Police arrested a 26-year-old white British man on suspicion of murdering Ann Widdecombe, a former Conservative minister and later Reform UK politician, at her home in Dartmoor. The victim was found dead with serious injuries. The investigation is in its early stages but moving at significant pace; police have consulted counter-terrorism policing but do not currently treat the incident as terrorist-related or politically motivated. Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the suspect as 'clearly dangerous' and urged the public to assist in the investigation.

us49

Iran reports 14 killed in US strikes on five provinces; IRGC retaliates against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait

Background: The US and Iran have been engaged in escalating military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran claiming civilian deaths in a US strike and the UAE intercepting Iranian missiles. Today: Iran reported 14 killed and 78 injured from US strikes targeting five provinces, including the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant and Chabahar port. The US said strikes aimed to degrade Iran's ability to threaten navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's IRGC retaliated by hitting US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply. Diplomatic efforts continue amid calls for de-escalation.

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Background: The US and Iran have been engaged in escalating military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran claiming civilian deaths in a US strike and the UAE intercepting Iranian missiles. Today: Iran reported 14 killed and 78 injured from US strikes targeting five provinces, including the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant and Chabahar port. The US said strikes aimed to degrade Iran's ability to threaten navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's IRGC retaliated by hitting US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply. Diplomatic efforts continue amid calls for de-escalation.

ua48

Ukraine's Operation 'Auchan' halts Russian mechanized offensive for six months using coordinated drone strikes

Ukraine's Defense Forces conducted Operation 'Auchan', a two-phase drone and intelligence campaign that struck 1,180 Russian targets, destroying over 800 armored vehicles and 171 artillery pieces. The operation forced Russian troops to withdraw equipment from the front and halted their mechanized offensive for up to six months, demonstrating Ukraine's growing reliance on asymmetric drone warfare. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced the operation, which involved the National Guard's Lasar's Group and the 412th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Systems NEMESIS. The campaign reflects Ukraine's strategy to degrade Russian offensive potential and reduce Ukrainian casualties from enemy artillery fire.

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Ukraine's Defense Forces conducted Operation 'Auchan', a two-phase drone and intelligence campaign that struck 1,180 Russian targets, destroying over 800 armored vehicles and 171 artillery pieces. The operation forced Russian troops to withdraw equipment from the front and halted their mechanized offensive for up to six months, demonstrating Ukraine's growing reliance on asymmetric drone warfare. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced the operation, which involved the National Guard's Lasar's Group and the 412th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Systems NEMESIS. The campaign reflects Ukraine's strategy to degrade Russian offensive potential and reduce Ukrainian casualties from enemy artillery fire.

fr48

Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential bid as RN courts German conservatives

The French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) has been building diplomatic ties with foreign ambassadors ahead of the 2027 presidential election. On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy after an appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction and ordered her to wear an electronic ankle monitor. Party leader Jordan Bardella will not run. Polls show the RN candidate likely winning the first round with 32–38% of the vote, though a runoff against center-right candidate Edouard Philippe remains uncertain. The RN continues to distance itself from the German far-right AfD, excluding them from its European Parliament group, while Bardella has praised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on climate and migration policy and met with the German ambassador. Analysts expect bilateral and EU-level conflicts if the RN wins, but note that Italy's Giorgia Meloni became a reliable partner after her election.

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The French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) has been building diplomatic ties with foreign ambassadors ahead of the 2027 presidential election. On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy after an appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction and ordered her to wear an electronic ankle monitor. Party leader Jordan Bardella will not run. Polls show the RN candidate likely winning the first round with 32–38% of the vote, though a runoff against center-right candidate Edouard Philippe remains uncertain. The RN continues to distance itself from the German far-right AfD, excluding them from its European Parliament group, while Bardella has praised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on climate and migration policy and met with the German ambassador. Analysts expect bilateral and EU-level conflicts if the RN wins, but note that Italy's Giorgia Meloni became a reliable partner after her election.

us48

Oil prices jump after Trump declares Iran ceasefire over, US revokes Iranian oil waivers

President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'over' and the US conducted new strikes on Iran after renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US revoked temporary waivers that had allowed Iranian oil sales under the MOU. Brent crude rose to $77.53 per barrel, about $5 above the start of the week, though analysts note markets are not pricing in a full return to war. Sustained price increases could reverse recent declines in US gasoline prices.

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President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'over' and the US conducted new strikes on Iran after renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US revoked temporary waivers that had allowed Iranian oil sales under the MOU. Brent crude rose to $77.53 per barrel, about $5 above the start of the week, though analysts note markets are not pricing in a full return to war. Sustained price increases could reverse recent declines in US gasoline prices.

ua48

Ukraine strikes 48 Russian vessels in five-day campaign targeting maritime fuel supply to Crimea

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days, including tankers, cargo ships, and ferries in the Sea of Azov, as part of a campaign to disrupt maritime fuel and supply routes to occupied Crimea. The campaign targets Russia's shadow fleet under international sanctions. Satellite imagery shows burning tankers near the Kerch Strait, and Russian tanker traffic has declined sharply. Ukraine also struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, fuel depots in Taganrog and Azov, and the Ust-Luga gas condensate complex. The Institute for the Study of War assesses this marks a new phase in isolating Crimea after road and rail routes were degraded.

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Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days, including tankers, cargo ships, and ferries in the Sea of Azov, as part of a campaign to disrupt maritime fuel and supply routes to occupied Crimea. The campaign targets Russia's shadow fleet under international sanctions. Satellite imagery shows burning tankers near the Kerch Strait, and Russian tanker traffic has declined sharply. Ukraine also struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, fuel depots in Taganrog and Azov, and the Ust-Luga gas condensate complex. The Institute for the Study of War assesses this marks a new phase in isolating Crimea after road and rail routes were degraded.

fr48

Marine Le Pen appeals embezzlement conviction to French Court of Cassation, suspension of ineligibility allows presidential campaign to proceed

Marine Le Pen has filed an appeal with the French Court of Cassation against her embezzlement conviction, a move that suspends the appellate court's sentence, including the ineligibility penalty. The Court of Cassation is expected to rule by April 2027, before the first round of the presidential election. The appeal allows Le Pen to campaign, but the legal strategy carries risks if the conviction is upheld. The top prosecutor, Rémy Heitz, clarified that the appeal does not revive the stricter first-instance ineligibility sentence, leaving Le Pen eligible to run unless the Constitutional Council rules otherwise. Legal experts debate whether a 1993 precedent could reactivate the first-instance penalty, but most argue it does not.

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Marine Le Pen has filed an appeal with the French Court of Cassation against her embezzlement conviction, a move that suspends the appellate court's sentence, including the ineligibility penalty. The Court of Cassation is expected to rule by April 2027, before the first round of the presidential election. The appeal allows Le Pen to campaign, but the legal strategy carries risks if the conviction is upheld. The top prosecutor, Rémy Heitz, clarified that the appeal does not revive the stricter first-instance ineligibility sentence, leaving Le Pen eligible to run unless the Constitutional Council rules otherwise. Legal experts debate whether a 1993 precedent could reactivate the first-instance penalty, but most argue it does not.

us48

US-Iran memorandum of understanding unravels as Trump revokes oil license and strikes resume

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed three weeks ago is rapidly collapsing. The Trump administration revoked a 60-day general license allowing Iranian oil sales after Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, then conducted strikes on Iranian naval and defensive assets. Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The escalation threatens to return the two sides to open hostilities, with Trump hinting at resuming a naval blockade or expanding strikes. Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to a five-week low on Sunday, with only six vessels recorded by Kpler, as oil and gas tanker traffic hit its lowest since May 25. Shipping sources note more vessels are turning off public trackers, obscuring actual traffic levels. The U.S. and Iran both claimed control of the strait after weekend fighting, with CENTCOM conducting strikes to protect commercial shipping. Iran's Revolutionary Guards stopped two ships and a container ship was damaged. Gas prices in the U.S. rose to $3.87 per gallon amid the instability. Ship-to-ship transfers off Oman increased as an alternative route.

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The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed three weeks ago is rapidly collapsing. The Trump administration revoked a 60-day general license allowing Iranian oil sales after Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, then conducted strikes on Iranian naval and defensive assets. Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The escalation threatens to return the two sides to open hostilities, with Trump hinting at resuming a naval blockade or expanding strikes. Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to a five-week low on Sunday, with only six vessels recorded by Kpler, as oil and gas tanker traffic hit its lowest since May 25. Shipping sources note more vessels are turning off public trackers, obscuring actual traffic levels. The U.S. and Iran both claimed control of the strait after weekend fighting, with CENTCOM conducting strikes to protect commercial shipping. Iran's Revolutionary Guards stopped two ships and a container ship was damaged. Gas prices in the U.S. rose to $3.87 per gallon amid the instability. Ship-to-ship transfers off Oman increased as an alternative route.

ua48

Violent protest over mobilization in Lviv exposes deep societal rift in Ukraine

On July 8-9, 2026, a crowd of about 200 people in Lviv's Sykhiv district attacked a Territorial Recruitment Center vehicle and its personnel after officers stopped a man wanted for evading military registration. The standoff lasted five hours, resulting in injuries to servicemen and the firing of warning shots by an off-duty soldier. The incident has drawn sharp criticism from Ukrainian officials, including the military ombudsman and human rights commissioner, who blame the government for failing to reform a mobilization system that relies on street stops and lacks fair exemption rules. The event highlights growing public anger over conscription practices, with an estimated 2 million men evading service and 200,000 soldiers having deserted since 2022.

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On July 8-9, 2026, a crowd of about 200 people in Lviv's Sykhiv district attacked a Territorial Recruitment Center vehicle and its personnel after officers stopped a man wanted for evading military registration. The standoff lasted five hours, resulting in injuries to servicemen and the firing of warning shots by an off-duty soldier. The incident has drawn sharp criticism from Ukrainian officials, including the military ombudsman and human rights commissioner, who blame the government for failing to reform a mobilization system that relies on street stops and lacks fair exemption rules. The event highlights growing public anger over conscription practices, with an estimated 2 million men evading service and 200,000 soldiers having deserted since 2022.