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Global Briefing July 13

US Imposes 20% Toll on Strait of Hormuz Shipping

Donald Trump declared the United States “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and said Washington would be reimbursed 20 percent on all cargo moving through it — the same toll Marco Rubio insisted in June that Iran had no right to levy. Iran answered by closing the strait after its Revolutionary Guard struck the container ship GFS Galaxy; crossings fell to six in two days and Brent closed at $78.82. In Paris, ten countries launched a missile-defence coalition of their own.

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us · United States

Iran War Costs Reach US: Cyber, Oil, Jobs

The Iran war reached American homes, workplaces and military planning this week: water systems in at least 12 states were disrupted, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to roughly 304.8 million barrels, and employers cut 23,000 jobs in July. The Pentagon then ordered industry to accelerate missile production as Patriot and THAAD inventories tightened.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Rations Scarce Capacity: Prisons, Water, Migration

Britain spent the week rationing prison cells, housing, enforcement officers and water. The revised prisoner-release scheme still covers PC Andrew Harper's killers; illegal-working arrests passed 17,000; five people were arrested after three nights of disorder in Thetford; and 23 million customers faced hosepipe bans before a fifth heatwave.

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fr · France

France's Climate Emergency Shapes Presidential Race

France's hottest July on record turned drought and fire into the setting for the 2027 presidential contest. Average temperature reached 24.9?C, fires burned at least 120,000 hectares and unemployment rose to 8.3 percent. Russian-linked fabrications then targeted Gabriel Attal and other candidates as debt-service costs climbed to ?64 billion.

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de · Germany

Germany's Safety Margins Shrink: Drone, Rhine, Gas

Germany's week joined security exposure to physical scarcity. An explosive drone was found beside the Leipzig/Halle runway, Russian-linked fabrications targeted September election candidates, the Rhine approached an impassable level at Kaub, gas storage hovered near 47 percent, and heat deaths for the season reached an estimated 11,900.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Deep Strikes vs. Air Defense Shortage

Ukraine's offensive reach expanded while its defensive shield thinned. A Russian barrage killed 17 around Kyiv after all 28 missiles got through; Black Sea attacks cut grain exports by a third; Kyiv's 40-day drone campaign hit more than 1,700 Russian targets but failed to force talks; and Zelensky warned that up to 50,000 North Korean troops could deploy.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey Turns Regional Disorder Into Leverage

Turkey converted a week of surrounding conflict into diplomatic leverage: it joined Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a mutual-defence pact, restricted Black Sea traffic after attacks on Turkish-owned ships, and pressed for a merchant-vessel moratorium. At home, ?zg?r ?zel's New Party deepened the opposition split as parliament prepared a conditional-amnesty framework for PKK members.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us48

Iran ceasefire collapses, US launches new strikes and requests $87 billion supplemental

The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since June 17, collapsed in late June 2026 after Iran targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military responded with two rounds of strikes inside Iran, hitting around 170 targets. The White House formally requested an $87 billion supplemental for Operation Epic Fury, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs, $2.4 billion for drones, $12.1 billion for classified programs, and $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy. The Pentagon's acting chief financial officer updated the conflict cost to $29 billion, while outside experts place the figure as high as $100 billion. Long-term costs include $250-300 billion for regional base repairs and $250-500 billion in veteran benefits over a decade. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on Truth Social, though diplomatic talks continue.

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The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since June 17, collapsed in late June 2026 after Iran targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military responded with two rounds of strikes inside Iran, hitting around 170 targets. The White House formally requested an $87 billion supplemental for Operation Epic Fury, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs, $2.4 billion for drones, $12.1 billion for classified programs, and $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy. The Pentagon's acting chief financial officer updated the conflict cost to $29 billion, while outside experts place the figure as high as $100 billion. Long-term costs include $250-300 billion for regional base repairs and $250-500 billion in veteran benefits over a decade. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on Truth Social, though diplomatic talks continue.

ua48

Ukraine claims 28 Russian vessels struck in Sea of Azov, total reaches 76 in six-day campaign

Background: Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days in the Sea of Azov, targeting maritime fuel supply routes to occupied Crimea. New development: On July 11, Ukraine's 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade claimed 28 additional Russian vessels were struck, including 21 tankers, 4 tugs, 2 cargo vessels, and 1 special-purpose vessel, bringing the six-day total (July 6–11) to 76. Russia has suspended navigation through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait, impacting about 25% of its wheat exports. The strikes have exacerbated fuel shortages, with Russian gasoline output falling to 65% of seasonal average consumption, prompting imports from Belarus and India. The campaign is part of a broader effort to isolate Crimea and damage Russia's energy infrastructure.

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Background: Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days in the Sea of Azov, targeting maritime fuel supply routes to occupied Crimea. New development: On July 11, Ukraine's 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade claimed 28 additional Russian vessels were struck, including 21 tankers, 4 tugs, 2 cargo vessels, and 1 special-purpose vessel, bringing the six-day total (July 6–11) to 76. Russia has suspended navigation through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait, impacting about 25% of its wheat exports. The strikes have exacerbated fuel shortages, with Russian gasoline output falling to 65% of seasonal average consumption, prompting imports from Belarus and India. The campaign is part of a broader effort to isolate Crimea and damage Russia's energy infrastructure.

fr48

France opens anti-terror probe after military-grade weapon found near synagogue in Paris suburb

French anti-terror prosecutors have opened an investigation after a military-grade weapon was discovered in a car parked near a synagogue in Sarcelles, a Paris suburb with a large Jewish population. No arrests have been made. The discovery comes amid a surge in antisemitic acts in France since the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. President Macron condemned rising antisemitism during a ceremony marking the exoneration of Alfred Dreyfus.

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French anti-terror prosecutors have opened an investigation after a military-grade weapon was discovered in a car parked near a synagogue in Sarcelles, a Paris suburb with a large Jewish population. No arrests have been made. The discovery comes amid a surge in antisemitic acts in France since the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. President Macron condemned rising antisemitism during a ceremony marking the exoneration of Alfred Dreyfus.

us48

US Senator Lindsey Graham dies suddenly at 71 from aortic dissection

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died suddenly on July 11, 2026, at age 71 from an aortic dissection due to cardiovascular disease. A close ally of President Trump and a hawkish voice on foreign policy, Graham had just returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine. His death reduces the Republican Senate majority to 51, complicates budget and confirmation votes, and triggers a special election process in South Carolina. Tributes poured in from Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and bipartisan colleagues.

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Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died suddenly on July 11, 2026, at age 71 from an aortic dissection due to cardiovascular disease. A close ally of President Trump and a hawkish voice on foreign policy, Graham had just returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine. His death reduces the Republican Senate majority to 51, complicates budget and confirmation votes, and triggers a special election process in South Carolina. Tributes poured in from Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and bipartisan colleagues.

ua48

Russian glide bomb strike kills five in Sumy, including child

On 22 June, Russian forces dropped two guided glide bombs on a crowded area of Sumy, Ukraine, killing five people including a 13-year-old girl and injuring at least 30 others. CCTV footage captured the moment of the explosions near a coffee shop and a public transport stop, causing panic among civilians. The attack damaged buses, cars, and residential buildings. This marks a significant escalation in the use of glide bombs against the city center, resulting in the highest single-incident death toll in Sumy in recent weeks.

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On 22 June, Russian forces dropped two guided glide bombs on a crowded area of Sumy, Ukraine, killing five people including a 13-year-old girl and injuring at least 30 others. CCTV footage captured the moment of the explosions near a coffee shop and a public transport stop, causing panic among civilians. The attack damaged buses, cars, and residential buildings. This marks a significant escalation in the use of glide bombs against the city center, resulting in the highest single-incident death toll in Sumy in recent weeks.

fr48

Large wildfire in Fontainebleau forest south of Paris suspected arson, burns 800 hectares

A large wildfire in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris has burned 800 hectares, forcing the closure of the A6 highway and disrupting rail services during a busy holiday weekend. Nearly 400 firefighters and water-bombing planes are battling the blaze, which Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said may have been deliberately set due to multiple ignition points. The fire occurs during a heatwave that has also forced the temporary shutdown of three nuclear power plants. The blaze is of exceptional scale and marks the first time firefighting planes from southern France have been deployed to the Paris region. The wildfire remains uncontained, with a new fire detected, and has now consumed 5% of the forest massif. Record heat on Sunday is giving way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday in western France, but drought conditions continue to exacerbate the fire risk.

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A large wildfire in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris has burned 800 hectares, forcing the closure of the A6 highway and disrupting rail services during a busy holiday weekend. Nearly 400 firefighters and water-bombing planes are battling the blaze, which Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said may have been deliberately set due to multiple ignition points. The fire occurs during a heatwave that has also forced the temporary shutdown of three nuclear power plants. The blaze is of exceptional scale and marks the first time firefighting planes from southern France have been deployed to the Paris region. The wildfire remains uncontained, with a new fire detected, and has now consumed 5% of the forest massif. Record heat on Sunday is giving way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday in western France, but drought conditions continue to exacerbate the fire risk.

fr48

Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement, announces 2027 presidential bid amid legal battle

Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling EU funds by the Paris Court of Appeal, receiving a 3-year sentence (1 year electronic bracelet), a fine, and a 45-month political ban (30 months suspended). She announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and will appeal to the Court of Cassation. The article profiles likely candidates Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Edouard Philippe, highlighting Le Pen's strong chance of reaching the second round but uncertainty over her opponent.

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Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling EU funds by the Paris Court of Appeal, receiving a 3-year sentence (1 year electronic bracelet), a fine, and a 45-month political ban (30 months suspended). She announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and will appeal to the Court of Cassation. The article profiles likely candidates Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Edouard Philippe, highlighting Le Pen's strong chance of reaching the second round but uncertainty over her opponent.

us48

U.S. Deploys Kamikaze Drone Boats in Combat for First Time, Strikes Iranian Naval Facility

On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

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On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

us48

Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade stalls US nuclear negotiations

Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

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Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

ua48

Ukrainian drones strike Kuban-Crimea power bridge and 11 energy hubs in occupied Crimea

On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

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On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.