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Global Briefing July 13

US Imposes 20% Toll on Strait of Hormuz Shipping

Donald Trump declared the United States “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and said Washington would be reimbursed 20 percent on all cargo moving through it — the same toll Marco Rubio insisted in June that Iran had no right to levy. Iran answered by closing the strait after its Revolutionary Guard struck the container ship GFS Galaxy; crossings fell to six in two days and Brent closed at $78.82. In Paris, ten countries launched a missile-defence coalition of their own.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us48

Iran ceasefire collapses, US launches new strikes and requests $87 billion supplemental

The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since June 17, collapsed in late June 2026 after Iran targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military responded with two rounds of strikes inside Iran, hitting around 170 targets. The White House formally requested an $87 billion supplemental for Operation Epic Fury, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs, $2.4 billion for drones, $12.1 billion for classified programs, and $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy. The Pentagon's acting chief financial officer updated the conflict cost to $29 billion, while outside experts place the figure as high as $100 billion. Long-term costs include $250-300 billion for regional base repairs and $250-500 billion in veteran benefits over a decade. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on Truth Social, though diplomatic talks continue.

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The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since June 17, collapsed in late June 2026 after Iran targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military responded with two rounds of strikes inside Iran, hitting around 170 targets. The White House formally requested an $87 billion supplemental for Operation Epic Fury, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs, $2.4 billion for drones, $12.1 billion for classified programs, and $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy. The Pentagon's acting chief financial officer updated the conflict cost to $29 billion, while outside experts place the figure as high as $100 billion. Long-term costs include $250-300 billion for regional base repairs and $250-500 billion in veteran benefits over a decade. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on Truth Social, though diplomatic talks continue.

ua48

Ukraine claims 28 Russian vessels struck in Sea of Azov, total reaches 76 in six-day campaign

Background: Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days in the Sea of Azov, targeting maritime fuel supply routes to occupied Crimea. New development: On July 11, Ukraine's 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade claimed 28 additional Russian vessels were struck, including 21 tankers, 4 tugs, 2 cargo vessels, and 1 special-purpose vessel, bringing the six-day total (July 6–11) to 76. Russia has suspended navigation through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait, impacting about 25% of its wheat exports. The strikes have exacerbated fuel shortages, with Russian gasoline output falling to 65% of seasonal average consumption, prompting imports from Belarus and India. The campaign is part of a broader effort to isolate Crimea and damage Russia's energy infrastructure.

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Background: Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days in the Sea of Azov, targeting maritime fuel supply routes to occupied Crimea. New development: On July 11, Ukraine's 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade claimed 28 additional Russian vessels were struck, including 21 tankers, 4 tugs, 2 cargo vessels, and 1 special-purpose vessel, bringing the six-day total (July 6–11) to 76. Russia has suspended navigation through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait, impacting about 25% of its wheat exports. The strikes have exacerbated fuel shortages, with Russian gasoline output falling to 65% of seasonal average consumption, prompting imports from Belarus and India. The campaign is part of a broader effort to isolate Crimea and damage Russia's energy infrastructure.

fr48

France opens anti-terror probe after military-grade weapon found near synagogue in Paris suburb

French anti-terror prosecutors have opened an investigation after a military-grade weapon was discovered in a car parked near a synagogue in Sarcelles, a Paris suburb with a large Jewish population. No arrests have been made. The discovery comes amid a surge in antisemitic acts in France since the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. President Macron condemned rising antisemitism during a ceremony marking the exoneration of Alfred Dreyfus.

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French anti-terror prosecutors have opened an investigation after a military-grade weapon was discovered in a car parked near a synagogue in Sarcelles, a Paris suburb with a large Jewish population. No arrests have been made. The discovery comes amid a surge in antisemitic acts in France since the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. President Macron condemned rising antisemitism during a ceremony marking the exoneration of Alfred Dreyfus.

us48

US Senator Lindsey Graham dies suddenly at 71 from aortic dissection

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died suddenly on July 11, 2026, at age 71 from an aortic dissection due to cardiovascular disease. A close ally of President Trump and a hawkish voice on foreign policy, Graham had just returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine. His death reduces the Republican Senate majority to 51, complicates budget and confirmation votes, and triggers a special election process in South Carolina. Tributes poured in from Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and bipartisan colleagues.

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Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died suddenly on July 11, 2026, at age 71 from an aortic dissection due to cardiovascular disease. A close ally of President Trump and a hawkish voice on foreign policy, Graham had just returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine. His death reduces the Republican Senate majority to 51, complicates budget and confirmation votes, and triggers a special election process in South Carolina. Tributes poured in from Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and bipartisan colleagues.

ua48

Russian glide bomb strike kills five in Sumy, including child

On 22 June, Russian forces dropped two guided glide bombs on a crowded area of Sumy, Ukraine, killing five people including a 13-year-old girl and injuring at least 30 others. CCTV footage captured the moment of the explosions near a coffee shop and a public transport stop, causing panic among civilians. The attack damaged buses, cars, and residential buildings. This marks a significant escalation in the use of glide bombs against the city center, resulting in the highest single-incident death toll in Sumy in recent weeks.

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On 22 June, Russian forces dropped two guided glide bombs on a crowded area of Sumy, Ukraine, killing five people including a 13-year-old girl and injuring at least 30 others. CCTV footage captured the moment of the explosions near a coffee shop and a public transport stop, causing panic among civilians. The attack damaged buses, cars, and residential buildings. This marks a significant escalation in the use of glide bombs against the city center, resulting in the highest single-incident death toll in Sumy in recent weeks.

fr48

Large wildfire in Fontainebleau forest south of Paris suspected arson, burns 800 hectares

A large wildfire in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris has burned 800 hectares, forcing the closure of the A6 highway and disrupting rail services during a busy holiday weekend. Nearly 400 firefighters and water-bombing planes are battling the blaze, which Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said may have been deliberately set due to multiple ignition points. The fire occurs during a heatwave that has also forced the temporary shutdown of three nuclear power plants. The blaze is of exceptional scale and marks the first time firefighting planes from southern France have been deployed to the Paris region. The wildfire remains uncontained, with a new fire detected, and has now consumed 5% of the forest massif. Record heat on Sunday is giving way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday in western France, but drought conditions continue to exacerbate the fire risk.

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A large wildfire in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris has burned 800 hectares, forcing the closure of the A6 highway and disrupting rail services during a busy holiday weekend. Nearly 400 firefighters and water-bombing planes are battling the blaze, which Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said may have been deliberately set due to multiple ignition points. The fire occurs during a heatwave that has also forced the temporary shutdown of three nuclear power plants. The blaze is of exceptional scale and marks the first time firefighting planes from southern France have been deployed to the Paris region. The wildfire remains uncontained, with a new fire detected, and has now consumed 5% of the forest massif. Record heat on Sunday is giving way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday in western France, but drought conditions continue to exacerbate the fire risk.

fr48

Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement, announces 2027 presidential bid amid legal battle

Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling EU funds by the Paris Court of Appeal, receiving a 3-year sentence (1 year electronic bracelet), a fine, and a 45-month political ban (30 months suspended). She announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and will appeal to the Court of Cassation. The article profiles likely candidates Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Edouard Philippe, highlighting Le Pen's strong chance of reaching the second round but uncertainty over her opponent.

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Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling EU funds by the Paris Court of Appeal, receiving a 3-year sentence (1 year electronic bracelet), a fine, and a 45-month political ban (30 months suspended). She announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and will appeal to the Court of Cassation. The article profiles likely candidates Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Edouard Philippe, highlighting Le Pen's strong chance of reaching the second round but uncertainty over her opponent.

us48

U.S. Deploys Kamikaze Drone Boats in Combat for First Time, Strikes Iranian Naval Facility

On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

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On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

us48

Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade stalls US nuclear negotiations

Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

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Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

ua48

Ukrainian drones strike Kuban-Crimea power bridge and 11 energy hubs in occupied Crimea

On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

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On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.