Financial Support Intensifies, Incremental Policy "Combo" Continues to Show Effectiveness – Interpretation of Financial Data for the First Three Quarters
China's social financing scale stock surpasses the trillion yuan mark, broad money supply (M2) shows stable growth, and loan interest rates remain at historically low levels... The People's Bank of China released financial data for the first three quarters on a certain date.
What are the highlights of the newly released financial data? Which sectors have received the majority of credit funds? How effective are the "combination punches" of financial policies?
The financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China on that day show that by the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans in China was . trillion yuan, an increase of .% year-on-year; the balance increased by .%, with growth picking up compared to the previous month; the stock of social financing stood at . trillion yuan, an increase of % year-on-year.
The data for the first three quarters shows that loans have maintained stable growth, liquidity is reasonably ample, which helps support the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy. Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, believes that the current financial aggregate is generally stable, with the stock of social financing scale breaking through the trillion yuan mark for the first time, effectively supporting the real economy.
However, financial authorities are gradually de-emphasizing their focus on financial aggregate indicators, and the growth of financial aggregates is in the stage of "slowing down to improve quality."
From a structural perspective, this year has seen a significant increase in corporate loans, particularly in medium and long-term corporate loans, which has provided ample financial support for stabilizing investment. Data shows that in the first three quarters, loans to enterprises (and institutions) increased by . trillion yuan, making them the main driver of loan growth. Among these, medium and long-term loans increased by . trillion yuan, accounting for over 70% of the total.
Specifically, where did the credit funds flow?
The reporter learned from the People's Bank of China that by the end of the month, the balance of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector was . trillion yuan, an increase of .% year-on-year. Among them, the balance of medium and long-term loans in high-tech manufacturing increased by % year-on-year; the balance of loans for specialized and innovative enterprises was . trillion yuan, an increase of .% year-on-year; the balance of inclusive micro and small enterprise loans was . trillion yuan, an increase of .% year-on-year. The growth rates of these loans all exceeded the growth rate of total loans during the same period.
Credit structure continues to optimize. Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher at China Zhenghong, stated that in recent years, as China's economic structure has undergone transformation and upgrading, new drivers such as green development and technological innovation have accelerated their formation, leading to corresponding adjustments in the credit structure. A variety of structural monetary policy tools have focused on the real economy, guiding an increasing amount of credit resources towards major national strategies, key areas, and weak links.
Additionally, the interest rate level in our country has maintained a stable and declining trend, which helps enterprises and residents reduce financing costs and alleviate interest burdens.
Reporters learned from the People's Bank of China that in the month, the newly issued personal housing loan interest rate was approximately .%, about 0.01 percentage points lower than the previous month and about 0.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the weighted average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was approximately .%, about 0.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year, both at historically low levels.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has encountered some new situations and issues, with weak social expectations and insufficient effective financing demand in the short term. In response, financial authorities have intensified policy efforts, introducing a package of incremental policies, with a focus on boosting confidence.
Starting from the end of the month, the People's Bank of China swiftly implemented a package of incremental policies: reducing deposit reserve ratios and policy interest rates, lowering existing mortgage rates, and creating structural monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market...
With the continuous implementation of the package of incremental policies, social effective demand will gradually recover. Wen Bin stated that the policy "combination punch" introduced by the People's Bank of China is beyond expectations and highly effective, targeting the key areas of real estate and capital markets.
Currently, major commercial banks have issued announcements regarding the batch adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates, clearly outlining the specific operational details, ensuring the smooth implementation of this adjustment, and giving borrowers greater confidence.
Recently, the effects of earlier policies have gradually become apparent, leading to positive changes in the real estate market: the popularity of the housing market in many regions has begun to recover, transaction activity has increased; the phenomenon of residents prepaying mortgages has decreased, and market expectations for the real estate sector have improved.
An employee of a state-owned bank's Shenzhen branch revealed that since the date mentioned, the daily number of applications for early repayment of personal mortgages at the bank has decreased by 60% compared to the daily average in the first half of the month.
The People's Bank of China previously announced that the key tasks for the second half of the year clearly emphasize continuing to implement a prudent monetary policy, increasing financial support for the real economy, and shifting the focus more towards benefiting the people and promoting consumption.
The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, has also stated that financial institutions will be guided to scientifically assess risks, constrain financing supply to overcapacity industries, and more effectively meet reasonable consumer financing needs. At the same time, policy synergy will be leveraged to promote supply-demand alignment.
"Effectively implement existing policies, and proactively introduce incremental policies" - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee made clear arrangements at its meeting on the day, demonstrating the Party Central Committee's confidence and determination to fully boost the economy.
Reporters learned that in the next phase, the People's Bank of China will further implement a prudent monetary policy, closely monitor the effects of previous policies, and accelerate the realization of policy effectiveness. There is still ample room and reserves for monetary policy, and it will continue to do a good job in counter-cyclical adjustments.
Dong Ximiao stated that against the backdrop of accelerating transformation from old to new drivers of growth, to boost domestic demand, especially in expanding consumption demand, monetary policy will also work in concert with other macroeconomic policies to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for invigorating the intrinsic economic momentum and vitality.